Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Wthrlvrmom]

Temp has been sitting quite comfortably at 31 degrees in Aledo most of the day. Weatherbug had 34 by 5 pm and it is still a cold 31. It also shows temp to reach 35 at 3am? Is this even possible? I just don’t see it getting any warmer.

[Texas Snow]

This is a good time to remind folks about the mPING app. It allows you to make real-time reports so the NWS can see what is happening with the various precip types at multitudes of locations instantaneously. It also makes it fun for NOWcasting and can make you almost giddy as you watch the map lights up with snow as it approaches.

[Quixotic]

32 here with a heavy mist. I think the SN report out of Denton is possible as the radar returns have that light look.

[Texas Snow]

NBC just had a live reporter in Denton. No snow.

[Jarodm12]

The temp ia dropping not rising the models are out to lunch hopefully the 00z data resolves thia

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CST Wed Jan 02 2019

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...portions of northwest into
west-central Texas

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 022339Z - 030445Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet are underway in central Oklahoma
into northwest Texas. This activity is expected to continue for
several hours, with multiple precipitation bands traversing the
area.

DISCUSSION...A mix of stratiform and low-topped convective
precipitation (by evidence of recent lightning data) has recently
initiated across portions of central Oklahoma into western Texas,
due to enhanced lift associated with a small impulse ahead of the
large-scale 500 mb closed low overspreading the area. Sfc-925 mb
temperatures are currently below freezing across much of the region,
with RAP analysis soundings indicating temperatures above freezing
in the 850-700 mb layer. The sub-freezing surface layer appears deep
enough to support most of the precipitation reaching the surface as
freezing rain, with a noticeable mix of sleet, as has been observed
in Caddo County to OKC over the past hour. In addition, KTLX and
KDYX doppler radar have indicated up to 45 dBZ in association with
some of the convective elements, suggesting that modest freezing
rain rates of at least .05-.10 in/3 hrs and brief periods of
moderate sleet are possible.

Composite mosaic reflectivity imagery suggests that both the central
Oklahoma and western Texas bands of precipitation are training over
the Red-River Valley, where accumulating freezing rain/sleet may
occur for several hours, also supported by the latest high
resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 01/02/2019

[Jag95]

Meacham has been reporting snow for 2 hours. Is that right?

[gpsnowman]

After light winds most of the day, winds have really picked up here in Irving. Not sure if that means a whole heck of a lot but I wanted to post it!!

[Jarodm12]

Sherman just dropped from 34 to 32 with a north wind of 12mph and the forecast low is 33, can anyone say convective FZR/sleet & CAA!


Sherman
Rain, mainly after 9pm. Low around 33. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible

[Jarodm12]

Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (KDFW)
Lat: 32.9°NLon: 97.02°WElev: 541ft.

Light Rain Snow Fog/Mist

34°F

1°C

Humidity 97%
Wind Speed N 16 mph
Barometer 30.09 in (1019.3 mb)
Dewpoint 33°F (1°C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Wind Chill 24°F (-4°C)
Last update 2 Jan 5:53 pm CST

[Texas Snow]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019


.AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions will prevail through the period as low CIGs
and VSBY will plague all sites. In the last hour a wave of
vigorous drizzle has developed over the TRACON and this is
reducing visibilties below 2SM. The evening weather balloon also
indicated there is still a -2C layer about 1000 feet AGL. As this
drizzle continues for the next few hours, this should result in
LIFR CIGS, IFR to MVFR visibility, and may result in subtle
surface cooling. As a result have inserted a tempo for freezing
drizzle at KAFW and KFTW where temperatures are already just a
degree from freezing. It appears temps are too warm at the other
sites for freezing precip to occur, however some aircraft may
still require de-icing if they arrive and leave quickly. The
drizzle should end in a few hours as low level isentropic lift
subsides, but mid level lift should ramp up resulting in some
showers that will stream northward. Rainfall from these showers
may serve to warm temps a degree or so, but this will be watched
closely. We may see an improvement of CIGS to IFR at some sites
late this evening into the morning but this is of low confidence.
The chance of precipitation warrants a mention of SHRA or VCSH
through the overnight into the morning.

As the upper low moves closer this will result in cooling of the
atmosphere aloft that could bring a mix of rain or snow for a
brief period around midday for DFW, FTW, and AFW. No impactful
accumulations are expected should this occur. Precip may go into
a lull in the mid afternoon to evening hours, but another shot at
a rain or snow mix will be possible Thursday evening. Again
surface temps should be above freezing through the duration of the
snowfall. Regardless of precipitation have prevailed IFR CIGs
through the afternoon and evening hours, though they may be a
category lower or higher.

TR.92

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line is snaking through western DFW but most models show temps staying pretty stable overnight.

[Cerlin]

Freezing line is snaking through western DFW but most models show temps staying pretty stable overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/M7bDQcc/frzline.png

The models also said we’d be at 37 by 2 pm today...

[SouthernMet]

Freezing line is snaking through western DFW but most models show temps staying pretty stable overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/M7bDQcc/frzline.png

The models also said we’d be at 37 by 2 pm today...

HRRR last night at one point also progged us at 40 today, in North Richland Hills we never got above 32.

[SouthernMet]

Looks like round 2 is developing out west right now...

[Brent]

HRRRR initialized at 36 in Dallas and rises to 38 by morning. The freeze line retreats NW overnight

[Cerlin]

HRRRR initialized at 36 in Dallas and rises to 38 by morning. The freeze line retreats NW overnight

I just can’t trust the models after how they handled today.

[Brent]

HRRRR initialized at 36 in Dallas and rises to 38 by morning. The freeze line retreats NW overnight

I just can’t trust the models after how they handled today.

yeah I'm not sure I fully understand how temps would rise overnight when they barely moved today

[Jarodm12]

Nam initialized too warm again, and showing rising temps it doesn't make any sense what so ever I guess the models will only be good for track, we are going to have to watch real time data must be miserable for nws right now

[Brent]

Unless the rain moving in causes temps to rise but still it didn't do much earlier when the sun was up...