Texas Winter 2019-2020

[bubba hotep]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

If I wasn't so booked up then I would pull my kids from school and make the drive. I might do it anyway lol!

[rwfromkansas]

I have a doc appointment Wednesday morning. I may postpone that. I don't want to have to drive if they cancel school.

[Brent]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

If I wasn't so booked up then I would pull my kids from school and make the drive. I might do it anyway lol!

if it really does snow close to a foot like the Euro said it'll be worth it

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

A reserved excitement is what I would call it around here in WF.

yeah I know... yall kind of been in the same boat we have down here

Speaking of the Euro it's been very consistent on not much in DFW and a bullseye near WF

[gboudx]

It'll be funny if you guys drive to WF and the bullseye winds up being in SE Collin county.

[EnnisTx]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

If I wasn't so booked up then I would pull my kids from school and make the drive. I might do it anyway lol!

That's perfect! Both of you drive up there so everything shifts South and East and leaves the Falls with a dusting. Meanwhile back at home 2010 happens!!

[Brent]

It'll be funny if you guys drive to WF and the bullseye winds up being in SE Collin county.

That's why I'm waiting til the last minute to decide maybe me talking about it will get it back into DFW I mean the other way wasnt working

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro trending colder and more progressive at 5H, towards the WRF but not quite as aggressive.....yet!!!

[Brent]

[EnnisTx]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

Lol.

[PineyWoods]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

I kind of like that one for Smith county...though I’m sure it’ll change.

[Ralph's Weather]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

I expect the Wed night system to blow up on the models. It will be almost all snow. This is why I have been saying anyone north of SA could see now. I could see it dropping a 3"+ on some spots south of I-20 and east of I-35. Maybe similar to early December 2017.

[Ralph's Weather]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

I kind of like that one for Smith county...though I’m sure it’ll change.

I am afraid we may be too far north for much, but I am keeping my fingers crossed. Someone will see some impressive totals from this. Impulses from Mexico usually surprise with more moisture than modeled. The globals will struggle the most with this. Watch the NAM on this one.

[ravyrn]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

I kind of like that one for Smith county...though I’m sure it’ll change.

I am afraid we may be too far north for much, but I am keeping my fingers crossed. Someone will see some impressive totals from this. Impulses from Mexico usually surprise with more moisture than modeled. The globals will struggle the most with this. Watch the NAM on this one.

Hopefully Palestine. I want a snow day!

[Haris]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YQ3kVfB/prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-sc-5.png

I expect the Wed night system to blow up on the models. It will be almost all snow. This is why I have been saying anyone north of SA could see now. I could see it dropping a 3"+ on some spots south of I-20 and east of I-35. Maybe similar to early December 2017.

god listen to ralph, please!!!!! Eagerly waiting in Austin. Looks like the hill co might see some frz precip as early as Wed am though.

[rolldamntoad]

I have a doc appointment Wednesday morning. I may postpone that. I don't want to have to drive if they cancel school.

We’re supposed to have some of our foster kittens spayed in Denton on Wednesday. I’m hoping we can make it up there and back (and up there and back again to pick them up afterward), but I’m not so sure.

[Ralph's Weather]

I kind of like that one for Smith county...though I’m sure it’ll change.

I am afraid we may be too far north for much, but I am keeping my fingers crossed. Someone will see some impressive totals from this. Impulses from Mexico usually surprise with more moisture than modeled. The globals will struggle the most with this. Watch the NAM on this one.

Hopefully Palestine. I want a snow day!

I bet yall do haha. Maybe it will happen.

[wxman22]

Most of the 12z GFS ensembles are on board with a light band of snow forming as the trough comes through central and east Texas.

[TheProfessor]

The most important thing for DFW to watch for is going to be the intensity of precipitation. You can override a warm nose if you have enough snow melting too cool the column below freezing. The larger the warm nose the more snow you need, but if you have a small to medium warm nose and you get some high precipitation rates you can cool it enough for the snow to fall. This is due to the absorption of latent heat, which I talked about before. Same thing can and does happen at the surface when you have temps just above freezing and snow falling. When the snow melts at the surface and on the ground it absorbs latent heat cooling the surface. This is what DFW should watch for. At this point you don't even really need a southeast shift(though that would be great if it occurs). But if the models are under doing the cold and precipitation intensity then that opens up a whole new can of worms.

[boca]

Maybe I’ll find a flight to Witchita Falls from South Florida since when I went to New York I saw rain and 48 degrees.

[harp]

Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.