Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Burn1]

get the plows out.....salt the roads! Houston is going to see a historic snow event......Over a foot may be in order!!

[msstateguy83]

where are you getting your information from?

[AggieSpirit]

URGENT: AWS (AggieSpirit -removed- Service) SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

A lot of scientific types on this here forum, the NWS, and several media outlets are
leaning towards some kind of snowfall event for Tuesday, December 29th, 2009.
I am officially -removed- for a 6-8 inch snowfall, and making a special request for
there to be enough snow to sled down the big hill close to our house here in
Midlothian.

Make it happen or else!

[vbhoutex]

get the plows out.....salt the roads! Houston is going to see a historic snow event......Over a foot may be in order!!

Huh??? Houston hasn't been mentioned in these discussions unless it was a passing reference to a cold rain.

[Tireman4]

Wow. Historic snowfall for Houston?. Wow.

(PS Would it not be great if the poster were right?...LOL He would make a ton in Las Vegas)

[Ntxw]

Wow. Historic snowfall for Houston?. Wow.

(PS Would it not be great if the poster were right?...LOL He would make a ton in Las Vegas)

An inch or two in Houston would be a miracle in itself, it would take massive cold for there to be a foot and one heck of a system off the coast. Hard to even get one to work out but both is once in a blue moon lol can sure dream

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SECONDARY COLD SURGE ARRIVED TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY... SUB-
FREEZING NIGHT TONIGHT. DESPITE FLAT UPPER RIDGE IN SRN STREAM JET
OVER SW CONUS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY...CHANCES ARE
WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN RELEGATED ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLD LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHALLENGES
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SPLIT-FLOW
REGIMES ALOFT ARE ALWAYS TOUGHER TO DIAGNOSE THAN FULL LATITUDE
SYSTEMS ARE. EXPECTED DISTURBANCE CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN APPROACHING
SRN CA/BAJA CA COAST AND WILL SWING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SW CONUS
MONDAY AND MON EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUES AFTERNOON AND EVE
...WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX
AND ACROSS OK.

BOTH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR THROUGH
700 MB TO OVERCOME...THUS WITH INITIAL LIFT/PRECIPITATION...EXPECT A
POTPOURRI OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN
WILL DISSECT NORTH TEXAS FROM PARIS...TO D/FW...T0 TEMPLE/LAMPASAS...WITH
MORE FROZEN POTENTIAL TO THE NW...MORE LIQUID AND WARMER SFC TEMPS TO
THE SE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST. SOUNDINGS BY
TUES AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR TO COOL ISOTHERMALLY TO BETWEEN -6 DEG
C AND 0 DEG C ACROSS WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE REGION...MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SNOW FAR ACROSS FAR WRN COUNTIES...TO
BETWEEN A DUSTING TO ONE INCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
METROPLEX AND NE COUNTIES. SYSTEM ON SATELLITE APPEARS STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...THUS IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE A DELAY WITH
A DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM COULD OCCUR WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY WARRANT A
FUTURE WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. ONE OTHER AFFECT THE WET-BULBING/EVAPORATION PROCESS COULD
HAVE...IF MOISTURE IS RICH ENOUGH...WILL BE TO KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
TUES INTO THE 30S AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL SHOW IN FORECAST.

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY MOVES EWD AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE...
UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AFFECTING AREAS BETWEEN D/FW
AND OK CITY...BUT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST ON HOW STABILIZED/DRY THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE IN WAKE OF OUR FIRST SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL GO IN
BETWEEN AND INTRODUCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-20...
THINKING CLOUD DECKS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.

FINALLY...IT APPEARS SOME POLAR SURGES WILL OCCUR AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ARRIVING BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE KEPT A CHILLY
AND BELOW MOS FORECAST IN TACT FOR THE EXTENDED FLOW IF POLAR VORTEX
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS EXPECTED.

[Tireman4]

Well.....February 14, 1895...20 inches...in Houston..picture..

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... ow1895.jpg

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
203 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS SE
NM/WEST TEXAS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BUT THAT/S DUE TO CHANGE IN
ABOUT 36 HRS AS A FAST-MOVING PAC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TEMP PROGS SUGGEST GUIDANCE
TEMPS REMAIN TOO HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MINS...BUT
NEVERTHELESS MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT W/INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

REGARDING THE TROUGH...GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE NAM...AND
THE ECMWF/SREF IN BETWEEN. GOING W/A COMPROMISE...ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SHOULD ENTER THE BIG BEND/PRESIDIO VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER...CHANGING
TO OVER TO SNOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO HIGHER
TERRAIN/COLDER AIR. 12Z NAM AND GFS BRING THE STRONGEST ENERGY UP
THRU THE BIG BEND...LOWER TRANS PECOS...PB...AND NE THRU TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUFFER SOUNDINGS/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THRU THIS REGION...MAXIMIZED IN THE H6-H5 LAYER...WHERE DENDRITIC
GROWTH WILL BE OPTIMAL...ESPECIALLY 12Z-18Z TUESDAY...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 IN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS THE MTNS AND SE NM PLAINS. ATTM...THIS IS TOO
FAR OUT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...AND WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE MET. IN ADDITION...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
EMPHASIZE WINTRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN A SPS AND IN THE
HWO.

[Ntxw]

Well.....February 14, 1895...20 inches...in Houston..picture..

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... ow1895.jpg

Well over a hundred years ago, blue moon =P None of us were alive to see it, nor probably our grandparents

[southerngale]

Wow. Historic snowfall for Houston?. Wow.

(PS Would it not be great if the poster were right?...LOL He would make a ton in Las Vegas)

An inch or two in Houston would be a miracle in itself, it would take massive cold for there to be a foot and one heck of a system off the coast. Hard to even get one to work out but both is once in a blue moon lol can sure dream

You mentioned a miracle. I dream about 1895 all the time.

31 Inches of Snow in SE Texas in 24 Hrs. Yep, it Can Happen!

Very interesting read. 31 inches in Beaumont. Wowzers!



Edit: lol - Tireman4 and I were thinking about the same thing! I hit the reply button before he posted, but it took me a while to find the thread.

[Tireman4]

Well.....February 14, 1895...20 inches...in Houston..picture..

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... ow1895.jpg

Well over a hundred years ago, blue moon =P None of us were alive to see it, nor probably our grandparents

You are right about my grandparents. They were not too far off ( Grandma born in 1905 and Grandpa born in 1901...). LOL

[DentonGal]

Well.....February 14, 1895...20 inches...in Houston..picture..

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... ow1895.jpg

Well over a hundred years ago, blue moon =P None of us were alive to see it, nor probably our grandparents

It's worth noting that a rare blue moon is actually occurring on December 31st of this year! I don't think that will help Houston with snowfall, but it's worth mentioning.

[Ntxw]

Well.....February 14, 1895...20 inches...in Houston..picture..

http://photos1.blogger.com/photoInclude ... ow1895.jpg

Well over a hundred years ago, blue moon =P None of us were alive to see it, nor probably our grandparents

It's worth noting that a rare blue moon is actually occurring on December 31st of this year! I don't think that will help Houston with snowfall, but it's worth mentioning.

Hmm blue moons, snow here and there almost everywhere, coastal lows, and the EC showing signs of very very cold air...very suspicious

[Portastorm]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (i.e. EWX, i.e. New Braunfels):

ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS40 AND
12/18Z NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED-OUT.

Gggrrrrr!

[Tireman4]

Coincidence? Hummmm...LOL

[Ntxw]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (i.e. EWX, i.e. New Braunfels):

ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS40 AND
12/18Z NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED-OUT.

Gggrrrrr!

Don't write it off yet Portastorm, DFW was only supposed to get rain possibly mixed with snow north and west last system and look how it turned out. Track and strength is everything

[Portastorm]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (i.e. EWX, i.e. New Braunfels):

ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METROS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS40 AND
12/18Z NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED-OUT.

Gggrrrrr!

Don't write it off yet Portastorm, DFW was only supposed to get rain possibly mixed with snow north and west last system and look how it turned out. Track and strength is everything

Yeah that is my only consolation right now. My local NWSFO has a woeful history when it comes to accurately predicting winter weather events here. But right now it doesn't look good for us.

[vbhoutex]

We can always DREAM, Of course if we want to get down to realities then we have to wake up. Current patterns and time of year do lend themselves to the possibility of more snow events for SE TX(Jan. and Feb. are our coldest months). Biggest kicker for us is still do we get enough cold air through all the layers of the atmosphere needed to produce snow when the moisture is present? Making that less of a kicker so far this season is the continuing cold surges and the currently progged cold surges. One little change in timing or the pattern could push us over the edge back into dreamland. It has happened once already this season here in SE TX.

[Weatherdude20]

Do you guys think that the Winter Storm is strengthening? Or getting weaker?