Texas Winter 2014-2015

[aggiecutter]

NWS Shreveport has a 30% chance of snow for Texarkana on Friday. Looks like a cold week ahead with lows tomorrow night predicted to be in the lower 20's and near 20 on Thursday night.

[Portastorm]

Just got back from running a few errands, read the afternoon AFD out of New Braunfels (EWX) and surprised to see no comment on it?! Talk of mixed precip on Thursday. Could be an interesting week ahead.

[orangeblood]

Get Ready Folks....this upcoming 10-15 days has the potential to be one of the colder periods we've seen in over 35 years for this time of year...from what I can tell, going back to 1978 from Jan. 4-14 and 2010 (both analog years)

We've got the strongest HP on the planet coming our direction this week with another 1050 HP on its heels, now lets see if we can throw some moisture into the mix.

[Rgv20]

Check out the updated forecast from KRGV local station for the Rio Grande Valley


Today's model runs have trended slightly colder for South Texas, Interesting work week coming up!

[Ralph's Weather]

After a quick look it sure does look chilly this coming week.

[dhweather]

I neglected to mention we had some nice, heavy showers last night with an imbedded thunderstorm. Picked up 1.14" of liquid gold. Always a good thing in these parts.

I got 0.6 - which is my weather highlight of the year thus far. Hopefully much more to come.

[gboudx]

I neglected to mention we had some nice, heavy showers last night with an imbedded thunderstorm. Picked up 1.14" of liquid gold. Always a good thing in these parts.

I got 0.6 - which is my weather highlight of the year thus far. Hopefully much more to come.

Same up here. Brings the event total to about 2.4". Maybe we'll see a 2" rise in Ray Hubbard/Lavon.

[aggiecutter]

The 18z GFS has the Northeastern part of the state getting several rounds of snowfall over the next 10 days, starting next Friday-Saturday.

[txprog]

Taking a look at the long-range models and teleconnection indices, it appears that after this coming week's cold (1/5 - 1/10), we (Texas) should moderate, but only for a short amount of time. The European weeklies control run is a thing of beauty for all, but WxMan 57. Days 16-25 show cold temperatures relative to normal. There is then a brief let-up (average temperatures) from 1/26 to 1/27. Thereafter, from 1/28 - 2/2, temperatures are depicted as very cold, and from 1/29 - 2/1, there is bitterly cold air in the Southern Plains (centered over Texas), with temperature anomalies off the color chart. If this were to verify (always difficult to do exactly), we could see mean 850 (not surface) temperature anomalies over the entire state of 21 degrees Celsius, which I believe translates to 69.8 degrees Farenheit.

The European ensembles show the AO trending towards neutral and possibly negative by Day 10, the PNA trending towards positive, the EPO remaining negative (but possibly neutral), the WPO remaining negative, and the NAO positive to neutral. This in conjunction with the potential SSW event raises the possibility of anomalously cold weather for Texas and the Southern Plains in the long-term. The one caveat is that this is still extremely long-range and the models are notorious for flipping back and forth.

-70F anomalies in TX? 21C anomaly = 37.8F anomaly (direct conversion is C * 1.8). Still very cold but at least it's possible for TX, don't think 70 would be unless we were going into the next ice age.

Be careful not to take much stock in such temp anomaly predictions. An anomaly of -30F is EXTREMELY rare, about reached in Feb 2011, but not since December 89, not even when we reached 8 in early Feb 1996 - our last single digit reading. The outbreaks in 83 and 89 produced anomalies in the -33-34 range, so a -37.8 seems impossible.

[Ntxw]

Forget the mother HP later this week, the leading edge of it is already sending a strong cold front down. Cold day tomorrow compared to today in the northern half of the state well in advance.

[ronyan]

Galveston in Feb 1899 had an anomaly of -43F (8F vs 51F average low)

[Ntxw]

Late January 1949 seems to be left out of the discussion quite often. Lets not forget this severe arctic outbreak produced the second lowest temperature officially at DFW (before the the big airport) at -2F. It was also -2F in Austin which is the official coldest temperature since records began there. This was quite a blast, possibly rivaling 1989 and 1983, of course I doubt many remember this one given how long ago it was. Another severe blast often overlooked is January 1930, this one had the intense temperatures of 1989 (-1F as well) with a duration likeness of 1983 (200+ hours below freezing).

[weatherdude1108]

I neglected to mention we had some nice, heavy showers last night with an imbedded thunderstorm. Picked up 1.14" of liquid gold. Always a good thing in these parts.

I received 1.5 inches over a period from New years eve to last night; about an inch of that fell last night.

[orangeblood]

Things are beginning to look interesting for later this week into the weekend....with plenty of Cold Air around, models are finally showing moisture returns and what appears to be a coastal low forming this weekend!! Canadian is even more aggressive than the GFS with the low, showing a nasty ice storm for a wide area of Texas

[Big O]

Taking a look at the long-range models and teleconnection indices, it appears that after this coming week's cold (1/5 - 1/10), we (Texas) should moderate, but only for a short amount of time. The European weeklies control run is a thing of beauty for all, but WxMan 57. Days 16-25 show cold temperatures relative to normal. There is then a brief let-up (average temperatures) from 1/26 to 1/27. Thereafter, from 1/28 - 2/2, temperatures are depicted as very cold, and from 1/29 - 2/1, there is bitterly cold air in the Southern Plains (centered over Texas), with temperature anomalies off the color chart. If this were to verify (always difficult to do exactly), we could see mean 850 (not surface) temperature anomalies over the entire state of 21 degrees Celsius, which I believe translates to 69.8 degrees Farenheit.

The European ensembles show the AO trending towards neutral and possibly negative by Day 10, the PNA trending towards positive, the EPO remaining negative (but possibly neutral), the WPO remaining negative, and the NAO positive to neutral. This in conjunction with the potential SSW event raises the possibility of anomalously cold weather for Texas and the Southern Plains in the long-term. The one caveat is that this is still extremely long-range and the models are notorious for flipping back and forth.

-70F anomalies in TX? 21C anomaly = 37.8F anomaly (direct conversion is C * 1.8). Still very cold but at least it's possible for TX, don't think 70 would be unless we were going into the next ice age.

Be careful not to take much stock in such temp anomaly predictions. An anomaly of -30F is EXTREMELY rare, about reached in Feb 2011, but not since December 89, not even when we reached 8 in early Feb 1996 - our last single digit reading. The outbreaks in 83 and 89 produced anomalies in the -33-34 range, so a -37.8 seems impossible.

Hence, the caveat and my reliance, in part, on the Euro ensemble teleconnection indices at Days 1-10. In addition, the Euro weeklies ensemble mean supports this general type of pattern in the extremely long-range. However, I agree with you that it is very unlikely that we will see temperature anomalies as depicted, but colder weather may still may be in the cards.

[Portastorm]

In addition to dealing with several hard freezes this week, I'm beginning to think next weekend has some potential for wintry precip in parts of the state. Similar overrunning pattern to develop but this airmass will be colder than this past week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Another strong arctic cold front is headed for the area.

Very cold temperatures expected Wednesday-Friday with a hard freeze possible Thursday morning.

Upper air pattern remains highly amplified with ridging deep into Alaska and a downstream trough across much of the western and central US. This continues to allow large arctic high pressure cells to develop over NW Canada and move SSE down the great plains into TX. This pattern looks to remain in place through this week allowing some of the coldest air of this winter to enter the region.

One such arctic boundary will be crossing the area this morning with gusty NW winds and cold air advection this afternoon. Temperatures will reach their highs around noon and then remain steady or fall slightly this afternoon under the influence of the upstream colder air mass moving into the region. Light freeze is likely for areas NW of US 59 Monday morning with winds weakening overnight and going near calm by sunrise Monday and a dry air mass in place. Lows will range from the 28-32 range NW of US 59 with temperatures warmer toward the coast in the 35-40 degree range where winds remain stronger overnight.

Brief warm up on Monday and Tuesday before a massive 1055mb arctic high comes crashing down the plains mid week.

Next strong arctic front will arrive late Tuesday and the air mass behind this boundary means business. Strong cold air advection will onset Tuesday afternoon and last into Thursday as surface pressures of nearly 1050mb build as far south as N TX…fairly impressive. Forecast models show a very dry and cold air mass building into the region on Wednesday with high temperatures struggling to get much into the 40’s even with sunny conditions. North winds of 15-25mph will produce wind chills into the 20’s and 30’s much of the day.

Wednesday night/Thursday AM:
Critical time period for potentially widespread damaging hard freeze will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast models are showing a bitter cold and dry air mass in place by Wednesday evening and Thursday morning with GFS forecast dewpoints across the region in the 1’s and lower 10’s. Current guidance is showing hard freeze conditions for nearly all locations except the coastal counties Thursday AM (2 hours or greater below 25) with a few locations north of HWY 105 possibly falling into the upper 10’s. Temperatures could go even lower given the very low dewpoints that will be in place, but strong winds should continue into the overnight hours along with increasing upper level cirrus clouds ahead of the next storm system over the Baja region. Even with the winds and clouds, guidance is still showing a hard freeze Thursday morning and this freeze would likely be somewhat advective in nature which is usually more damaging in this area as the “greenhouse” method of vegetation protection generally fails for advective freezes. Wind chills Thursday morning will be well into the 10’s across the region!

Friday-Next Weekend:
Next upper level storm system moves across MX from Baja and toward TX on Friday. Cold arctic air mass will still be in place Friday with lows possibly once again falling below freezing. Surface layer is very dry as noted by the very low dewpoints…so while clouds will be thickening from the SW do not expect any precipitation while the surface temperatures are below freezing. Coastal trough is formed over the NW Gulf Friday in response to incoming system from the WSW in the upper levels. While the air mass should modify models are usually too fast in warming arctic cold domes suggesting with clouds and developing light rain Friday temperatures may be stuck in the 30’s. GFS tries to back door a surge a cold sub freezing arctic air into the region from the NNE on Sunday with widespread overrunning conditions in place. For now will keep everything liquid from Friday through next weekend awaiting better model consistency and indications on how the surface air mass over the region will behave as moisture returns.

[kingwood_tx1999]

In addition to dealing with several hard freezes this week, I'm beginning to think next weekend has some potential for wintry precip in parts of the state. Similar overrunning pattern to develop but this airmass will be colder than this past week.

Witch part of the state? I know it's to far out right now..but would se tx be in the general thinking?

[Portastorm]

In addition to dealing with several hard freezes this week, I'm beginning to think next weekend has some potential for wintry precip in parts of the state. Similar overrunning pattern to develop but this airmass will be colder than this past week.

Witch part of the state? I know it's to far out right now..but would se tx be in the general thinking?

The computer models (CMC and some runs of GFS) suggest primarily southwest Texas into central/north Texas. I haven't seen anything suggesting SE Texas could see a threat. However, given the nature of the airmass coming and potential timing issues with Baja upper low and coastal low progged to develop, I wouldn't rule it out at this point.

[kingwood_tx1999]

In addition to dealing with several hard freezes this week, I'm beginning to think next weekend has some potential for wintry precip in parts of the state. Similar overrunning pattern to develop but this airmass will be colder than this past week.

Witch part of the state? I know it's to far out right now..but would se tx be in the general thinking?

The computer models (CMC and some runs of GFS) suggest primarily southwest Texas into central/north Texas. I haven't seen anything suggesting SE Texas could see a threat. However, given the nature of the airmass coming and potential timing issues with Baja upper low and coastal low progged to develop, I wouldn't rule it out at this point.

I figured as much.thanks porta!