Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

I expect this is more common than we think. It just happens on such a tiny scale that it is not observed often. I would think it is possible from our area lakes if the water is warm enough and we have an Arctic air mass in place though it cant be a dry air mass which makes it harder to achieve the ideal mix of conditions. In recent years the best day I can think of to find this would be the morning after the big sleet storm in early March 2013 (Edit: it was 3/4/2014). I recall flurries that morning with temps in the teens. Maybe those flurries were enhanced by area bodies of water.

[Ralph's Weather]

Just looking at teles the next couple weeks look pretty boring with all teles hovering just above positive. The start to trend down to start Feb so looks like the period before Valentines is one to watch as it is also a good climo time for snow around here.

[hriverajr]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

I expect this is more common than we think. It just happens on such a tiny scale that it is not observed often. I would think it is possible from our area lakes if the water is warm enough and we have an Arctic air mass in place though it cant be a dry air mass which makes it harder to achieve the ideal mix of conditions. In recent years the best day I can think of to find this would be the morning after the big sleet storm in early March 2013. I recall flurries that morning with temps in the teens. Maybe those flurries were enhanced by area bodies of water.

Last year here in Del Rio, we had a bit of lake effect snow.. lasted about 30 minutes or so... I looked at the radar, it was a plume coming off Amistad reservoir.

[wxman57]

Snow is confined to northern OK on the 12Z GFS run (about an inch). Nothing for Texas through the first week of February. No really cold temps, no really warm temps. Looking at the projected 500mb pattern, I just don't see anything that would bring colder air south out of the Polar region.

[Portastorm]

I think I may use a new nickname for you, wxman57. How about Buzzkill Bob? Or the Conversation Killer?

If the 12z GFS is to be believed, the strong, cold, and deep trough is still there for early next week but we don't have much moisture return to provide some wintry weather. We have either the moisture and not enough cold air or cold air and not enough moisture. Go figure.

There's still a good 6-8 weeks left of "opportunity" for us in Texas. I gotta hope there's something out there which will end the 12-year streak in Austin of no snow (above 1"). It's either that or we lock up this thread and move to a Texas Spring 2016 thread. But I don't want to give "Buzzkill Bob" that satisfaction.

[wxman57]

That "strong cold front" early next week might produce a light freeze down to the Dallas area, Portastorm. We've still had only a single light freeze in north Houston this winter. All we'll have around Texas for the next few weeks is useless cold. It's way too cold for me, and too warm for snow.

[Portastorm]

That "strong cold front" early next week might produce a light freeze down to the Dallas area, Portastorm. We've still had only a single light freeze in north Houston this winter. All we'll have around Texas for the next few weeks is useless cold. It's way too cold for me, and too warm for snow.

Oh, you know I'm just teasing ... yes, I agree with you. This weather is useless. No rain, no snow and average to slightly below average temps. Just goes to prove that not every El Nino is the same or even similar.

[Ralph's Weather]

For next week, we need some energy to be left to the west of the main trough with a +PNA that is hard to get. Some ensemble members show this happening though. There should be enough cold if there is energy. I am not keeping my hopes up though.

[gboudx]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

I expect this is more common than we think. It just happens on such a tiny scale that it is not observed often. I would think it is possible from our area lakes if the water is warm enough and we have an Arctic air mass in place though it cant be a dry air mass which makes it harder to achieve the ideal mix of conditions. In recent years the best day I can think of to find this would be the morning after the big sleet storm in early March 2013. I recall flurries that morning with temps in the teens. Maybe those flurries were enhanced by area bodies of water.

It happened in March 2014 as well. I saved the graphic.

[Ralph's Weather]

I saw something today about "plant effect snow" in Hutchinson county in the Texas panhandle last night that dropped 1-2 inches of snow. Has anyone ever heard of this before? What conditions does it take to occur?

I expect this is more common than we think. It just happens on such a tiny scale that it is not observed often. I would think it is possible from our area lakes if the water is warm enough and we have an Arctic air mass in place though it cant be a dry air mass which makes it harder to achieve the ideal mix of conditions. In recent years the best day I can think of to find this would be the morning after the big sleet storm in early March 2013. I recall flurries that morning with temps in the teens. Maybe those flurries were enhanced by area bodies of water.

It happened in March 2014 as well. I saved the graphic.

http://i.imgur.com/bXplrFu.jpg

That is the event I was thing of. I will at the date to my original post.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im back to watching the 5H high near Hawaii. We want the position of this High to be just west of Hawaii i believe. This keeps the Low in the Aleutians which then pumps the ridge in Alaska/NW territory, bring cold air down into the plains etc.

Earlier in the year, The high was located east of Hawaii and this would drag the Lows down along the west coast and create bowling balls. Both have its benefits and just because one thing happens doesnt mean another HAS to happen here of course, but its interesting to see how this high, resulting from the warm pacific water, is controlling the weather here in the US.

[wxman57]

Sure is dead in this thread. To pass the time, maybe we can start counting down the days until spring?

Let's see, 50...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just trolling everybody hahaha.

Like my boy Verne and Gary on college football Saturdays like to say, "Gotta a lot of football left!"

[Lagreeneyes03]

Sure is dead in this thread. To pass the time, maybe we can start counting down the days until spring?

Let's see, 50...

Winter Cancel time, for real this time?

Anyone up for a blizzard watching trip up to the Northeast? I spent 2 years in NEPA...one of which was the least snow on record...smh.. just my luck.

[weatherdude1108]

My brother lives and DC. He sent a text yesterday how they were expecting 1-2 feet of snow this weekend, and if we wanted to come visit. I may say yes at this point.

Our forecast is more like a Nina forecast. Fronts coming too often, scouring out whatever little moisture is in the column. Too cool to enjoy in most cases, and not cool enough to keep the bugs in check, or for SNOW (or freezing drizzle).

We have gotten sprinkles and fog this month so far, but not enough to measure in the sensor, since December. Like Portastorm mentioned earlier, the spigot shut off in January. Granted we ended the year with a major surplus, but this dry spell isn't good timing for the Cedar sufferers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER A
MORNING OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S WITH THE CLOUD COVER DESPITE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE
EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BEHIND THE FRONT
AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AHEAD AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE NON-
EXISTENT AND WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN
CHANCES...PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE
STRONGER THAN TODAYS SYSTEM AND THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT SHOULD BE ENDED BY NOON THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE LIKELY FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE
A WARM-UP WITH HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOKS LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS THE CHANCE TO RECOVER
IN TIME FOR THE SYSTEM. WILL ONLY MENTION 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S
FOR LOWS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S.

[Tireman4]

Sure is dead in this thread. To pass the time, maybe we can start counting down the days until spring?

Let's see, 50...

Sigh. Just a big loud sigh.

[TheProfessor]

I now know how Porta Feels. (though to a much lesser scale) Seeing the winter storm of my dreams just to my South and East is frustrating As of right now I might see 0-6 inches of snow. The only hope I hold to now is that a Nw Wobble and or a delayed Southeast transfer could put me in a prime spot for snow.

[tolakram]

I now know how Porta Feels. (though to a much lesser scale) Seeing the winter storm of my dreams just to my South and East is frustrating As of right now I might see 0-6 inches of snow. The only hope I hold to now is that a Nw Wobble and or a delayed Southeast transfer could put me in a prime spot for snow.

Welcome to our world. I don't think the Euro is going to come back north so it's over. Down here we will probably see 3 or 4 inches total between now and Saturday but not much more. Better than 0 though.

[Ntxw]

I am really starting to dislike the +PNA. I am thoroughly convinced it is a horrible signal. Dry NW flow, and flat ridge (not a true block) from the West coast/rockies up to NW Canada is atrocious.

[JDawg512]

We have gotten sprinkles and fog this month so far, but not enough to measure in the sensor, since December. Like Portastorm mentioned earlier, the spigot shut off in January. Granted we ended the year with a major surplus, but this dry spell isn't good timing for the Cedar sufferers.

I must be pretty lucky. Have had 0.67 of an inch recorded since the 1st. Still, I'd like to see more rain than what is being forecast that's for sure.

I agree this seems much more typical of a La Niña type pattern. The STJ is way down into north central Mexico.