2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[BaytownSam]

Some good snow/sleet pictures for a Austin TV station:

http://www.keyetv.com/Photo.aspx?slideshow=9d279f7b-894d-4549-8396-0a9ad1f309ea

[Shoshana]

Snow! Accumulating on the grass and metal stuff (like the window screen the wind blew off)





Ohhh coming down harder now - sounds like sleet and snow together

KXAN Doppler

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Winter Weather Advisory posted for the San Antonio/Austin Metro areas including the Hill Country.

000
WWUS44 KEWX 100649
WSWEWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1249 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...

.AN EARLY WINTER STORM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...BRINING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED...ICING OF
BRIDGES ARE OVERPASSES IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE ADVISED AREA BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

TXZ172-173-186>192-203>206-101500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.081210T0649Z-081210T1500Z/
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...KERRVILLE...
BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...
AUSTIN...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
1249 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS LIKELY DUE TO FREEZING RAIN AND
MELTING SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
AND AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE EXTREME CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pretty cool videos coming in from Austin...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qjg-z3J2OU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7pqYaM2c7U <<< people freaking out. lol.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Even the Corpus NWS is mentioning sleet possiblities in the northwest part of the CWA. That would probably include Beeville, George West, maybe Victoria.

[HarlequinBoy]

Haha! What a nice surprise for you in Austin and San Antonio.

[somethingfunny]

Cute. I had 15 minutes of sleet and it was over.

[southerngale]

Double post from the other Texas thread. Maybe we should combine them. Frick and Ed... do y'all mind?


I guess they expect anything that falls during the day today to just be rain. Different from the evening forecast, which called for a 40% chance of rain or sleet during the day today. Now it's 70% chance of showers. They have upped tonight's forecast, though. It went from 30% chance of rain or snow to 70% chance of snow or sleet!

New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
OK, so I'll make a miniature snowman.

I just worry that the precip will be gone before tonight. Come on, baby. Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...SORRY FOR THE DELAY IN GETTING THIS DISCUSSION AND
A FEW OF THE PRODUCTS OUT THIS MORNING BUT THERE`S LOTS GOING ON
TO SAY THE LEAST. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXITING EXTREME SERN LA WITH REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING A FEW LINES OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER ACADIANA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...MIXED WITH A
LITTLE SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF OVER ERN/SRN TX.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL THE SHORT/MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SERN TX LATER THIS
MORNING THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AS
PROJECTED BY THE GFS/NAM PRECIP SHIELD OVER TX HAS BEEN EXPANDING
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF INCREASES AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE INCREASED THE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
PRECIP SHIELD SPREADS EAST AND PRESUMEDLY CONTINUES TO EXPAND.
STRONG CAA AND THICK CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STATIC OR EVEN DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG NRLY WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
VERY RAW AND BLUSTERY DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET OR SNOW OVER THE LAKES REGION. THIS
CHANGEOVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD/GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MORNING EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE COAST BUT THICKNESS FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED BAG. SINCE WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT SRN LA/SERN TX IN DECEMBER...FEEL BETTER KEEPING
A MIXED MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.

MOVING ONTO POTENTIAL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SWRN/S-CNTL ZONES FOR TODAY AS
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE OR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHER AREAS COULD SEE THESE STRONG NRLY
WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT DEAL WITH
THESE SHOULD THEY OCCUR. SPEAKING OF PASSING THE BUCK...HAVE
INCLUDED A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIP IN THE GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON
LOCAL CRITERIA. HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH AN ISSUANCE
FOR NOW TO LET LATER FORECASTS BETTER REFINE THE WINTER WEATHER
THREAT.

MOVING FORWARD IN TIME...PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE EXTREME ERN ZONES IN CASE LIGHT WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE A COLDER NIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP
WITH THE HIGH PROGGED TO MOVE TO A POSITION JUST NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ON WRLY/NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING
SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK WAVES
BEGIN CROSSING IN DEVELOPING SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SMALL POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bitterly cold and windy while taking the garbage out, but the rain appeared to be all liquid...

FM 1960/Veterans Memorial area.

[wxman57]

These vertical temperature soundings for central Houston may help. I put text and arrows on there to explain them, sort of.

RUC valid 9am for central Houston:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/RUCHouston9AM.gif

RUC valid 3pm for central Houston:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/RUCHouston3PM.gif

Note that there's a large layer of above-freezing air aloft at 9am but that by 3pm, that red temperature line moves left of the freezing line, meaning all the air is below freezing aloft with a 33F surface temperature at 3pm.

On the downside, moisture is decreasing significantly aloft by 3pm, so not much precip by then.

[jasons2k]

As usual, a race.

That precip on the radar is moving really fast, with our usual luck it will all be gone before the profile supports frozen precip.

So far just a cold rain up here in South Montgomery.

[srainhoutx]

Seeing a "few" sleet pellets mixing in with mostly liquid precip in NW Harris County at this time.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey wxman, how is it looking for us over here in SE LA this morning? Talking about accum. tonight for SW LA and winter storm watches for south/central MS, but nothing for us yet. Can you give me any insight? Thanks.

[jasons2k]

My wife says it is white between Brenham & Giddings along Hwy. 290 (she's driving). She said the roads are OK but the fields & trees are covered.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian has surface front early next week near/just past Dallas, with 850 mb freezing line North of OKC. Maybe some ice from near the Red River to the City.

Euro even shallower cold air- surface front near Houston, with 850 mb freezing line well back in Oklahoma!


Just cold rain, if anything in Houston, unless front slips even farther South, but 850 mb relative humidities in excess of 90% would seem favorable for PL/ZR in DFW area.



Looks like just rain right now in the Galleria...

[JenBayles]

Can someone explain to me how the forecast changed so drastically from the time I went to bed last night around 10:00 and when I finally looked at the forecast around 8:30 this morning? I about fell over when I saw 70% chance of sleet for today and a decent chance for same this evening. What forecaster relied on what model instead of using his brain?

[vbhoutex]

Not sure about relying on the models had anything to do with the change. The mid levels are becoming colder and colder as today progresses and therefore the chances of frozen vs liquid precip rises. The questions was/is whether the moisture will be around for the frozen precip to happen. The temperature profile will be there for it if the moisture is available. Looking ifffy for it to really happen by the time the temp profile is in place.

[JenBayles]

Well hidey ho there buddy! Ringing any bells this Christmas? We're ringing through nearly the whole service this Sunday, and I'm actually glad we're wearing robes for a change. BRRRRR!!!!

[jinftl]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREAWIDE WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW FLURRIES WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF YESTERDAY`S STRONG COLD FRONT.

DUE TO A WET AND WARM GROUND...NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM MORALES TO KATY TO CLEVELAND THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH NOON THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like Houston will lose the race between the back end of significant precip and air cold enough to support sleet/snow...