Texas Winter 2015-2016

[somethingfunny]

Why on Earth are normally cautious TV meteorologists tossing around fantastical snow maps from models over a week into the future?

[Ralph's Weather]

Overnight gfs runs show snow north of the Red River late next week. Hopefully the trough digs just a bit more south to get us in it. At least we are going to flush out this October like weather by Sunday, hopefully snow follows soon.

[TheProfessor]

Overnight gfs runs show snow north of the Red River late next week. Hopefully the trough digs just a bit more south to get us in it. At least we are going to flush out this October like weather by Sunday, hopefully snow follows soon.

I don't have a real grasp on how storm paths of one storm affect the ones after it, but apparently we want the storm this weekend to trend further south as it would set a boundary that pushes the next storm further south when it comes through.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't have a real grasp on how storm paths of one storm affect the ones after it, but apparently we want the storm this weekend to trend further south as it would set a boundary that pushes the next storm further south when it comes through.

That makes sense. If next week is closer to I-30 than the Red River maybe that will mean a Christmas week storm that is south of I-20. Though it seems our best chance will be upper level systems out of Mexico.

[DonWrk]

Why on Earth are normally cautious TV meteorologists tossing around fantastical snow maps from models over a week into the future?

Wondering this same thing! They usually steer far from this type of stuff and are the ones to downplay any event that far out. Not sure what has gotten into them.

[TheProfessor]

Why on Earth are normally cautious TV meteorologists tossing around fantastical snow maps from models over a week into the future?

Wondering this same thing! They usually steer far from this type of stuff and are the ones to downplay any event that far out. Not sure what has gotten into them.

Maybe it's the fact that it's El Nino?

[CaptinCrunch]

Why on Earth are normally cautious TV meteorologists tossing around fantastical snow maps from models over a week into the future?

That's called Hype, and good O Pete is the King of weather Hype, regardless of type. Have you ever notice how he repeats himself when he get's all excited over his fantasy forecast...lol

[gpsnowman]

Why on Earth are normally cautious TV meteorologists tossing around fantastical snow maps from models over a week into the future?

That's called Hype, and good O Pete is the King of weather Hype, regardless of type. Have you ever notice how he repeats himself when he get's all excited over his fantasy forecast...lol

A few years back during a severe outbreak, commenting on helicopter footage, he was literally trying to will a funnel cloud to make touchdown. I really think he wanted to see a tornado hit the ground. Anyway you have to give him credit, he is very enthusiastic about his job.

[Ntxw]

In other news, bombogenesis is forecasted to occur in the Aleutians. GFS has 930s which would make it one of the top low pressure bombs for the waters there. Euro with higher resolution showed 925mb last night. Nuri holds the lowest record at 924mb from last year.

Both Euro and GFS are now advertising 927mb low pressure bomb. The low is currently on the southern coast of Japan moving NE. Pretty cool to see the warming of the Arctic with this and GOA flip.

[Ralph's Weather]

In other news, bombogenesis is forecasted to occur in the Aleutians. GFS has 930s which would make it one of the top low pressure bombs for the waters there. Euro with higher resolution showed 925mb last night. Nuri holds the lowest record at 924mb from last year.

Both Euro and GFS are now advertising 927mb low pressure bomb. The low is currently on the southern coast of Japan moving NE. Pretty cool to see the warming of the Arctic with this and GOA flip.

It is going to be fun to watch. The models very well may be underestimating the surface affects down here though the strong El Nino may also be what is mitigating the affects.

[Ntxw]

It is going to be fun to watch. The models very well may be underestimating the surface affects down here though the strong El Nino may also be what is mitigating the affects.

We will feel it more than the folks east of the Mississippi. We are close enough to the western trough that any push eastward (-EPO) would bring some cold. The northeast and lakes keeps on seeing ridges pump up and bring them warmth, any cold there will be transient at most. It is not just a little warm there, it is record breaking currently. Some of their lows are higher than their average high temps. Ghosts of 1877, 1997.

[Ntxw]

The CMC is on it for Pete Delkus. However it is the crazy Canadian

[Ralph's Weather]

The CMC is on it for Pete Delkus. However it is the crazy Canadian

So we have the GFS being more progressive with the overall trough vs the GEM leaving some in the SW which tracks over us next Friday generating a Gulf coast low (it would be hard to draw it up better for a widespread Texas snow). Lets see what the Euro shows. I think most agree that we will see multiple storms like the GEM is showing through the winter, I am not sure if we will get our first one quite this soon though. Bering Sea bombgenesis can produce anomalous outcomes though.

[Brent]

[gatorcane]

The GFS for the past few runs is showing a pretty significant large-scale pattern change across North America just before Christmas, still way out in the long-range though:

[Brent]

The CMC appears to be alone with the snowy solution at the end of next week... the Euro does have a very transient cold shot in the same timeframe but no storm it appears.

[Ralph's Weather]

The CMC appears to be alone with the snowy solution at the end of next week... the Euro does have a very transient cold shot in the same timeframe but no storm it appears.

Maybe the GEM thinks it is January instead of December.

[dhweather]

The CMC is on it for Pete Delkus. However it is the crazy Canadian

Yes, the Canadian is often out to lunch, but I also remember it NAILING the events early this year that all of the others whiffed on.

So it's either really wrong, or really right.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

:roflmao:

Can we just accept this as fact and call it a day?

[Ntxw]

So it's either really wrong, or really right.

I've noticed the CMC is a lot like the global version of the NAM. Sometimes it can really nail things when the other just miss but as a whole it isn't that great compared to some of the other globals. I guess when you like to amplify things, if the pattern is amplified it works vs the middle road

It's not like the euro doesn't see, has the same trof and cold air intrustion +/- 18th, just dry