Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

The GFS is much colder on Wednesday than the Euro, there are no 60s to be found anywhere close to DFW. It has the high on Wednesday before daybreak in the mid 40s, and then 30s by late Wednesday. Even Tuesday is only in the 50s.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS has a bit more energy around Wednesday leading to light snow for N TX. This would further support teens into N and NE TX late next week. It shows a 1041mb high over N TX on Thursday with possible snow on ground or at least just to the north and yet has lows in the mid 20s, expect colder.

[Brent]

Fresh snow pack for those north winds



The rest of the run looks pretty chilly too... DFW doesn't even hit 60 after tomorrow...

[JayDT]

Fresh snow pack for those north winds



The rest of the run looks pretty chilly too... DFW doesn't even hit 60 after tomorrow...

If only those snowfall totals could be further south and east. lol

[starsfan65]

We are going to get very cold next week.

[Tireman4]

Fresh snow pack for those north winds



The rest of the run looks pretty chilly too... DFW doesn't even hit 60 after tomorrow...

If only those snowfall totals could be further south and east. lol[/quot



Give it time young Jedi.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Something I'm not that savvy in is the long term models for the zonal winds at 60N and the forecasted strengthening of the vortex.

Couldn't we still deliver cold air with a strengthening vortex at the poles as long we got the Aleutian ridge delivering us a -EPO.

Anthony Massielo seems to believe a strengthening vortex means a mild January. I'm wondering if he's referring to the East Coast because long time models still have high heights over Alaska.

[orangeblood]

Something I'm not that savvy in is the long term models for the zonal winds at 60N and the forecasted strengthening of the vortex.

Couldn't we still deliver cold air with a strengthening vortex at the poles as long we got the Aleutian ridge delivering us a -EPO.

Anthony Massielo seems to believe a strengthening vortex means a mild January. I'm wondering if he's referring to the East Coast because long time models still have high heights over Alaska.

Yeah, there is a risk this pattern could fip to mild with all the extreme cold air showing up in Canada....The cold air will strengthen the PV, potentially bottling up most of the cold air north of the border for a prolonged period of time.

[Ntxw]

Something I'm not that savvy in is the long term models for the zonal winds at 60N and the forecasted strengthening of the vortex.

Couldn't we still deliver cold air with a strengthening vortex at the poles as long we got the Aleutian ridge delivering us a -EPO.

Anthony Massielo seems to believe a strengthening vortex means a mild January. I'm wondering if he's referring to the East Coast because long time models still have high heights over Alaska.

If you were relying on the AO/NAO as the conditions for cold. This is particularly true for the east coast. A true -NAO tends to slide the coldest air to our east and the strat vortex is often tied closest to the AO. The EPO is relatively independent from those and tends to be a different forecast. For this index the tropical forcing over the equatorial Pacific tends to control.

But it would not be a complete surprise if it warmed as winter went on. Nina/cold neutral tends to be front end heavy as we discussed in the fall thread.

[Ralph's Weather]

Something I'm not that savvy in is the long term models for the zonal winds at 60N and the forecasted strengthening of the vortex.

Couldn't we still deliver cold air with a strengthening vortex at the poles as long we got the Aleutian ridge delivering us a -EPO.

Anthony Massielo seems to believe a strengthening vortex means a mild January. I'm wondering if he's referring to the East Coast because long time models still have high heights over Alaska.

I would think so, it would have to be a pretty solid -EPO though. Not sure a - WPO as we have now would do it

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Something I'm not that savvy in is the long term models for the zonal winds at 60N and the forecasted strengthening of the vortex.

Couldn't we still deliver cold air with a strengthening vortex at the poles as long we got the Aleutian ridge delivering us a -EPO.

Anthony Massielo seems to believe a strengthening vortex means a mild January. I'm wondering if he's referring to the East Coast because long time models still have high heights over Alaska.

If you were relying on the AO/NAO as the conditions for cold. This is particularly true for the east coast. A true -NAO tends to slide the coldest air to our east and the strat vortex is often tied closest to the AO. The EPO is relatively independent from those and tends to be a different forecast. For this index the tropical forcing over the equatorial Pacific tends to control.

But it would not be a complete surprise if it warmed as winter went on. Nina/cold neutral tends to be front end heavy as we discussed in the fall thread.

So a strong vortex is closely tied to a positive AO

[Ntxw]

So a strong vortex is closely tied to a positive AO

More or less, yes

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So a strong vortex is closely tied to a positive AO

More or less, yes

Why is it that I feel like one of our recent snows was a positive AO/NAO but a heavy negative EPO and PNA. Was I dreaming something?

[Ntxw]

So a strong vortex is closely tied to a positive AO

More or less, yes

Why is it that I feel like one of our recent snows was a positive AO/NAO but a heavy negative EPO and PNA. Was I dreaming something?

It can snow in EPO and -PNA. Just depends on depth of cold air. Tends to be more shallow though with -EPO because there is just so much cold that the front end outruns the main cold dome under it's own weight. Which is why we tend to see ice storms out of arctic outbreaks.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looking at long range thru the 15th, EPO, PNA, AO and WPO are all negative and the NAO goes positive.

To me, that paints a beautiful picture for us as long as we can get some decent snow pack to our north.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

One last stupid question....

Is there any correlation between the AO and tropical forcing in the PAC?

[aggiecutter]

[Golf7070]

Orangeblood， ntxw，or sraintx，is there anything to watch for moving forward that may allow the pattern not to be warm as we.progress forward? A warm winter dont make alot of people happy except wxman57

[Ntxw]

Orangeblood， ntxw，or sraintx，is there anything to watch for moving forward that may allow the pattern not to be warm as we.progress forward? A warm winter dont make alot of people happy except wxman57

December should average cold. Our skill beyond that is very low, it's just that history tends to favor warmer later in winter in these kind of seasons. It's not always the case but it's all we can go by. You have a lot of winter to look forward to the next month though and weeklies actually look decent through early January. I wouldn't lose hairs over it right now.

[Golf7070]

Does anyone have access to the 18zgfs ensembles? If so，can someone post them please. 144hr frame. Should be 18 frame type thing