Texas Winter 2017-2018

[EnnisTx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017


.LONG TERM... /Issued 344 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017/
/Tonight through next week/

Several references have already been made to the potential for
significantly cooler air arriving next week, and while this
potential is not completely gone, significant swings between the
models and each forecast run continue to lend little confidence
into the pattern for next week. All of the models do agree that a
stronger trough will affect the western half of the country next
week. However, with each model run the past few days, the models
have differed on the track and timing of this upper system.
Mean ensemble members have also shown significant swings.
Yesterday`s 00Z ensemble model runs favored the upper level
trough stalling and almost dissipating over the southwestern
CONUS, but tonight they favor a more progressive pattern which is
closer to the operational model runs. The models and their
ensembles do seem to agree colder air will arrive next week, and
there will be a chance for rain with this system, but the main
question that remains is when will the rain and cold air arrive.
Tonight`s 00Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS are 48+ hours
different on the arrival of the colder air. Given the
inconsistencies between models and each forecast run, have kept
next week dry and hedged toward the warmer side of guidance until
we can get better agreement on next week`s pattern. Looking a
little farther out, there are indications that if (or when) the
upper level trough progresses through the Plains, it may maintain
residency over the eastern half of the CONUS for at least a few
days.

JLDunn

[Ralph's Weather]

It is pretty certain that we will cool down and get some precip sometime between the 7th and 12th or so but models are incredibly inconsistent on all factors. It could be anything from another east based cool shot with some showers to a cold upper low crossing the state bringing cold rain and snow.

[EnnisTx]

It is pretty certain that we will cool down and get some precip sometime between the 7th and 12th or so but models are incredibly inconsistent on all factors. It could be anything from another east based cool shot with some showers to a cold upper low crossing the state bringing cold rain and snow.

I will take the latter of those two!

[Brent]

18z gfs has a lot of rain widespread for most of the state next Wednesday and Thursday some snow in the panhandle

Cold and unsettled with several suppressed storms in fantasy land not the worst spot to be for sure

[Brent]

Almost 2 feet of snow in the panhandle this run

[gpsnowman]

Perhaps a Storm2k road trip to the Panhandle??? Rick Mitchell has 30's-50's on the tail end of his 10 day with 30% rain chances the middle of next week. Good, keep the temps dropping and the rain chances increasing. December is looking pretty especially if the pattern sticks around for a while.

[gboudx]

Maybe I should get some firewood. Been holding off because from last Winter, I still had a good bit leftover. I didn't want to have leftover from last Winter, still leftover heading into next Winter.

[spencer817]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017112812&fh=240&r=us_sc&dpdt= CMC needs to calm down...

[EnnisTx]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017112812&fh=240&r=us_sc&dpdt= CMC needs to calm down...

Just a bit to the East and I'll take it!

[bubba hotep]

One of the encouraging thing that I see, is that on D15 the Euro EPS still has the Pacific jet somewhat retracted with the associated mean trough & ridge keeping ridging in WCAN. So, even if the jet were to start to extend across the Pacific, we probably wouldn't see the warmth from that process until after Christmas. So maybe a cool or even cold Christmas this year?

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

One of the encouraging thing that I see, is that on D15 the Euro EPS still has the Pacific jet somewhat retracted with the associated mean trough & ridge keeping ridging in WCAN. So, even if the jet were to start to extend across the Pacific, we probably wouldn't see the warmth from that process until after Christmas. So maybe a cool or even cold Christmas this year?

That's more what I'm hoping for... I don't really believe in a big wintry threat for most of us initially(aka late next week), but what we need is to lay down some snow cover upstream from that and then we'll be in better shape for future storms as long as the pattern holds

[South Texas Storms]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

[Brent]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

yeah this GFS run is like what storm Wednesday... neither rain or snow anywhere close

Not really cold either. Mostly east of us

[bubba hotep]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

00z GFS is ugly as it retrogrades a portion of the energy associated with the SW trough. Retrograde or shear out are both bad for Texas, we really need that to cutoff and the slide east into the state.

[starsfan65]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

yeah this GFS run is like what storm Wednesday... neither rain or snow anywhere close

Not really cold either. Mostly east of us

What do u mean east of us?

[Brent]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

00z GFS is ugly as it retrogrades a portion of the energy associated with the SW trough. Retrograde or shear out are both bad for Texas, we really need that to cutoff and the slide east into the state.

I'm still not convinced of anything next week. I have deep concerns we'll miss out to the east though and just get some transient dry cold that we've already seen this month

The GFS is not even impressive next week... maybe a high in the 50s zzz certainly no freeze this run

[starsfan65]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

00z GFS is ugly as it retrogrades a portion of the energy associated with the SW trough. Retrograde or shear out are both bad for Texas, we really need that to cutoff and the slide east into the state.

I'm still not convinced of anything next week. I have deep concerns we'll miss out to the east though

The GFS is not even impressive next week... maybe a high in the 50s zzz certainly no freeze this run

Is this a bad run or is this reality?

[Brent]

00z GFS is ugly as it retrogrades a portion of the energy associated with the SW trough. Retrograde or shear out are both bad for Texas, we really need that to cutoff and the slide east into the state.

I'm still not convinced of anything next week. I have deep concerns we'll miss out to the east though

The GFS is not even impressive next week... maybe a high in the 50s zzz certainly no freeze this run

Is this a bad run or is this reality?

It just shows that there are many scenarios possible next week... nothing is certain on rain or cold.

[bubba hotep]

These models are not handling the pattern for next week well at all. 0z GFS and Canadian are back to being quite dry across Texas after the 12z and 18z runs were wet.

00z GFS is ugly as it retrogrades a portion of the energy associated with the SW trough. Retrograde or shear out are both bad for Texas, we really need that to cutoff and the slide east into the state.

I'm still not convinced of anything next week. I have deep concerns we'll miss out to the east though and just get some transient dry cold that we've already seen this month

The GFS is not even impressive next week... maybe a high in the 50s zzz certainly no freeze this run

Tropical convection in the Pacific seems to support the deeper trough in the SW that kicks East that some model runs have shown. Also, the EPS is pretty much on board, the opposite was true the week before Thanksgiving when the Euro was showing rain Thanksgiving week but the EPS was mostly dry.