Texas Winter 2018-2019

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TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#241 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:31 am

The CMC's ice storm would rival the 2013 ice storm in West Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#242 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:33 am

I am late to the party. Wife is snoring, drinking wine, watching Midnight Run. Happy winter everyone. Looking forward to an exciting season with cold and snow. Please oh please oh please.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#243 Postby Brent » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:41 am

the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#244 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:08 am

Brent wrote:the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic


They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.

Image

Image

These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#245 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:52 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic


They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.


I dont know much about the details of the data, but the map is showing 850mb (approx. 5k ft up). Its possible the cold air is very shallow and may not be present at the 850 level.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#246 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:17 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic


They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.


I dont know much about the details of the data, but the map is showing 850mb (approx. 5k ft up). Its possible the cold air is very shallow and may not be present at the 850 level.


Hello ice storm lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#247 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:59 am

06Z GFS shows less phasing with northern stream keeping things warmer around here. 0Z Euro and its ensembles shifted north though some members still show a good snow down here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#248 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:26 am

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#249 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:32 am

Ntxw wrote:12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.


Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#250 Postby DFWLady » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:34 am

Welcome everyone from the fall post!

I'm hopeful for December 8/9th. But I'm even more hopeful for January! I agree it will be a mild mid-December. But January should be very interesting! Cheers to a good winter everyone! Believe!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#251 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:37 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.


Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?


At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#252 Postby starsfan65 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:45 am

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.


Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?


At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.
i hope this 12z is a outlier.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#253 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.


Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?


At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.


Do you think the FV3 is a better model? It seems to be a bit more aggressive with our chances for wintry weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#254 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:54 am

Cpv17 wrote:Do you think the FV3 is a better model? It seems to be a bit more aggressive with our chances for wintry weather.


It has consistently better skill scores than the normal GFS. It might have quirks in it but broadly speaking it is a better model. For years the GFS during colder outbreaks has been way out of touch even compared to real time data. It also doesn't perform well with high impact QPF events that the FV3 so far looks like it is doing better. It won't matter though in about a month the GFS as we know it is no more.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#255 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:56 am

Here is GOES WEST image of the storm we are all watching just northeast of Hawaii and in the GOA. It will merge with an Aleutian trough the coming days before diving southward towards SoCal/Baja.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#256 Postby Haris » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:02 pm

Image
:double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#257 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:10 pm

As a new fun tool we also have the GOES 17 satellite pre-operational (future goes west). Reminds us El Nino is definitely still out there with near linear convection close to the Equator. Storms that dig enough south to tap it become high qpf events.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#258 Postby spencer817 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:16 pm

12z ensembles are encouraging for an ice storm, many of them just west of DFW. A couple have an ice storm here, and a few with back end snow! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#259 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:18 pm



It digs really far south on that run. Central part of the Baja..pretty wild.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#260 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:24 pm

FV3 is colder than the GFS. Everything is west and North of DFW but is a blizzard for West, NW Texas, and Oklahoma.

7 days out! Don't be in the bulls-eye :lol:
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