Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TheProfessor]

The CMC's ice storm would rival the 2013 ice storm in West Texas.

[gpsnowman]

I am late to the party. Wife is snoring, drinking wine, watching Midnight Run. Happy winter everyone. Looking forward to an exciting season with cold and snow. Please oh please oh please.

[Brent]

the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic

[Cpv17]

the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic

They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.





These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic

They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.

I dont know much about the details of the data, but the map is showing 850mb (approx. 5k ft up). Its possible the cold air is very shallow and may not be present at the 850 level.

[Cpv17]

the 0z Euro looks like mostly a cold rain(and a lot of it!) with an icy mess in Oklahoma and the Panhandle

If these globals are too warm like they usually are this could definitely be problematic

They’re underestimating the cold air, no doubt. Especially with the snowpack being built in the plains from this weekends blizzard up there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo%20dels/ecmwf/2018120100/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

These two maps make absolutely no sense. It’s basically saying from hour 144 to hour 168 the front gets hung up in far NTX and Oklahoma and almost seems to move it back north as a warm front. With the snowpack being deep up north that should help strengthen the high and once that cold air gets moving south, there’s nothing that’s going to stop it from going south like depicted in the 0z Euro.

I dont know much about the details of the data, but the map is showing 850mb (approx. 5k ft up). Its possible the cold air is very shallow and may not be present at the 850 level.

Hello ice storm lol

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS shows less phasing with northern stream keeping things warmer around here. 0Z Euro and its ensembles shifted north though some members still show a good snow down here.

[Ntxw]

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.

[Cpv17]

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.

Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?

[DFWLady]

Welcome everyone from the fall post!

I'm hopeful for December 8/9th. But I'm even more hopeful for January! I agree it will be a mild mid-December. But January should be very interesting! Cheers to a good winter everyone! Believe!!!!

[Ntxw]

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.

Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?

At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.

[starsfan65]

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.

Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?

At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.

i hope this 12z is a outlier.

[Cpv17]

12zGFS is a milder storm largely cutoff from cold air. 12zCMC, naturally, is colder.

Right before the storm system impacts us, there’s a pocket of well below normal temps pushing towards Texas and then it just fizzles out and is overtaken by warm air. Why would such a strong airmass of cold air just fizzle out like that?

At the same time warm, moist (rain) air is being advected north from the EPAC. Of course this is what this particular model run sees we don't actually know yet how exactly it will play out. Often there is a zone with fine line that the two meet.

No doubt though the rain is coming particularly the southern half of the state from the deep tropics out of the Pacific with such a south digging shortwave.

Do you think the FV3 is a better model? It seems to be a bit more aggressive with our chances for wintry weather.

[Ntxw]

Do you think the FV3 is a better model? It seems to be a bit more aggressive with our chances for wintry weather.

It has consistently better skill scores than the normal GFS. It might have quirks in it but broadly speaking it is a better model. For years the GFS during colder outbreaks has been way out of touch even compared to real time data. It also doesn't perform well with high impact QPF events that the FV3 so far looks like it is doing better. It won't matter though in about a month the GFS as we know it is no more.

[Ntxw]

Here is GOES WEST image of the storm we are all watching just northeast of Hawaii and in the GOA. It will merge with an Aleutian trough the coming days before diving southward towards SoCal/Baja.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

As a new fun tool we also have the GOES 17 satellite pre-operational (future goes west). Reminds us El Nino is definitely still out there with near linear convection close to the Equator. Storms that dig enough south to tap it become high qpf events.

[spencer817]

12z ensembles are encouraging for an ice storm, many of them just west of DFW. A couple have an ice storm here, and a few with back end snow!

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bFHwZVg/gfs-tprecip-austin-31.png [/url]

It digs really far south on that run. Central part of the Baja..pretty wild.

[Ntxw]

FV3 is colder than the GFS. Everything is west and North of DFW but is a blizzard for West, NW Texas, and Oklahoma.

7 days out! Don't be in the bulls-eye