Texas Winter 2019-2020

[HockeyTx82]

NWS FWD has the Social Media and Winter Weather Graphic up. Perhaps that's a good sign of a more active pattern that models are showing winter weather so there's stuff to post on social media. IIRC last year we had to wait for that graphic to show up much later in the season.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

[bubba hotep]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

[hamburgerman7070]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

Bubba, i think we need to consider the IOD moving forward and if we can get the mjo into the favorable phases. Do you have any idea what we want to see that would allow the ao and nao to trend negative? The euro seasonal displays just that, which is a negative nao in winter, but the eueo did terrible last winter.

[Brent]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

We can't win around here lol

[Cpv17]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

We can't win around here lol

I pretty much have stopped even paying attention to the models. I don’t even check them anymore because I seriously doubt anything exciting is going to happen anytime soon.

[Brent]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

We can't win around here lol

I pretty much have stopped even paying attention to the models. I don’t even check them anymore because I seriously doubt anything exciting is going to happen anytime soon.

yeah I honestly dont know why people bother with the long range... we can't figure out next week!

[Cerlin]

After the 18z’s I’m calling this a no go for DFW. Better luck next time I suppose.

[starsfan65]

After the 18z’s I’m calling this a no go for DFW. Better luck next time I suppose.

Are you giving up?

[Brent]

After the 18z’s I’m calling this a no go for DFW. Better luck next time I suppose.

Are you giving up?

it's always been a long shot... there's no cold air

[Cerlin]

After the 18z’s I’m calling this a no go for DFW. Better luck next time I suppose.

Are you giving up?

I’m doubtful. If it were closer temperature wise it’d be the best chance we’d have in years. Temps are just running too warm right now.

[Cerlin]

That being said, I don’t hate the GFS 00z

[Haris]

18z euro, gfs and cmc are all pretty good for Dallas. Very quiet for some reason

[Quixotic]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

We can't win around here lol

Buck up! It may be coincidental, but for the frat time in years I mowed dormant grass and raked leaves. All because if we have a winter event, my yard will look more cinematic. It may not be now, but my gut says the cold is coming back. My motto has always been “get the cold, the precip will take care of itself.” So, let’s not be Debbie downer. Notice that when the IO relaxes, we get cold. It will pulse and we will get cold.

[Brent]

on the precip maps if you loop them(not the fantasy snow maps) I don't really see where the DFW snow comes from, looks like it stays north of the metro

It's not gonna be cold enough I don't think

although I'd love to be wrong I'm not feeling it

[somethingfunny]

Too bad this can't tap the cold air that is just off to the NE. Strongest +NAO in a long time for the fail lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019120712/gfs_z500_vort_scus_16.png

We can't win around here lol

Buck up! It may be coincidental, but for the frat time in years I mowed dormant grass and raked leaves. All because if we have a winter event, my yard will look more cinematic. It may not be now, but my gut says the cold is coming back. My motto has always been “get the cold, the precip will take care of itself.” So, let’s not be Debbie downer. Notice that when the IO relaxes, we get cold. It will pulse and we will get cold.

I had gotten that job halfway finished before the ice storm hit in December 2013 and I had long piles of leaves waiting to be bagged up in a strip across my yard. It looked kinda lame covered in ice but once it melted, it actually looked really cool because the leaves insulated the grass underneath and I had strips of bright green grass surrounded by the brown dormant lawn

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like north of I-30 has 5hr best chance for snow though I could see it down to I-20 or even further south. The temps will be very tricky and will make a huge difference in the snow placement. If the surface high comes in a touch strong everything shifts south pretty quickly in this setup.

[CaptinCrunch]

I am not concerned with this weeks weather so long as December returns to feel like December. Temps after Monday will feel very seasonal and that is fine with me.

Once we get past this week and start looking towards the true start of our NTX winter the chances for more favorable cold intrusions go up, so hopefully our precipitation chances also increase for that period as well.

I think once we see the PNA start tanking around the 18th this will kick the MJO into gear and get us to were we need to be heading into the holidays and early January where I believe our chances of winter precipitation increases.


NWS FTW

Now for the reason you`re really reading this: the winter weather
potential. While the ascent looks strong for reasons discussed in the previous paragraph, and moisture should (initially) be
abundant enough to support precipitation processes, in this case, the temperature/moisture timing is where the uncertainty lies. A more classic winter weather/snow event for North Texas typically involves an upper-level shortwave trough detaching from and lagging behind a longwave trough. Such a synoptic pattern allows deep cold air to infiltrate the Southern Plains, with strong lift and moisture arriving about 24 hours later. In Tuesday`s case, the shortwave trough looks like it will remain fairly well attached to the longwave trough, with the synoptic freezing line likely to still be in the Sooner State on Tuesday morning. Having said that, the effects of dynamic cooling from the powerful upper-level ascent, as well as thermodynamic processes from evaporative cooling should allow temperatures to cool to near or just below freezing in our western counties. It looks like areas generally west of a line from Decatur to Mineral Wells to Goldthwaite would be where this would be most likely to occur. To the north of this area, dry air may work its way in before temperatures can cool enough. To the south and east, temperatures look to be simply too warm. This region, which also has a bit of elevation working for it, is right in the "sweet spot". After collaboration with neighboring offices and WPC, have opted to include a mention of light rain/snow mix for Tuesday morning in these areas.

In terms of accumulations/impacts, there remains substantial
uncertainty due to uncertainties about how cold it will be Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures look to be right around freezing (give or take a couple of degrees), so ground temperatures should be warm enough to prevent much in the way of meaningful accumulations. Having said that, should temperatures be a few degrees cooler than forecast, or precipitation rates be heavier than expected, some accumulations would be possible. The grids
explicitly mention about one-tenth to one-quarter inch of snow
accumulation in the aforementioned areas, but right now, this
should be viewed as a higher-end scenario. These accumulations would also likely be confined to elevated surfaces (i.e. bridges and overpasses) or grassy areas. Any disruptions should be very minimal, but folks that will be traveling west of the Metroplex on Tuesday should monitor the latest forecasts.

[bubba hotep]

06z EPS for DFW with a mean of nearly 0.5" of snow

[Cerlin]

What’s really keeping me in the “no-go” category here is the fact that, not even for one run has the NAM been on board with this. The temperatures are close but it’s just not there for the NAM. Not the 12k or the 3k. And, until a high res model (other than the WRF-ARW2) is on board, I won’t be. The 12z GFS is promising but I don’t know how much I trust it.

[bubba hotep]

06z GEFS