Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Ivanhater]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

Only if that warm layer is dry. Also heavy precip falling through the warm layer can pull down more warm air. I do think that the GFS is over doing the warm air, but the stronger the Gulf low is the more warmth it will bring in at 850mb.

Awesome explanation. Thank you for sharing some of your knowledge with many of us that hardly ever see this kind of event!

[Steve]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

It could but not necessarily. There was a New Year’s Day event in New Orleans 20-25 years ago where it was 33 and rainy for hours and it stayed as rain though we all know it can sleet at relatively high temperatures and snow into the mid 40’s. We had a couple bad ice storms in New Orleans (1983 and I think 87 or 88). Those are nasty.

[TallyTracker]

I just bought some firewood before the rush hits Sunday/Monday. I’m concerned about power outages in Tallahassee and other locations should the ice option materialize. All snow or all rain would be best. Though even all rain will become ice everywhere Tuesday night when temps plunge below freezing. Chance of icicles on my house is likely over 90% right now no matter how you slice it.

[Ivanhater]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

It could but not necessarily. There was a New Year’s Day event in New Orleans 20-25 years ago where it was 33 and rainy for hours and it stayed as rain though we all know it can sleet at relatively high temperatures and snow into the mid 40’s. We had a couple bad ice storms in New Orleans (1983 and I think 87 or 88). Those are nasty.

Oh that would just p*ss a lot of people off

[Ivanhater]

18z Euro


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[Jag95]

Whether the models show rain, snow or sleet, I'm more focused on qpf than temperature. I believe the temperature will be there unless we have another coast rider like that last one. If the temp doesn't cooperate with a cold shot like this then hands up, there's always Colorado. Fast approaching the 72-hr window.

[Ivanhater]

Almost time for bed but I hope you folks staying up for the 00z runs leave me some good news to wake up to.

[LAwxrgal]

This forecast doesn't stand a snowball's chance (pun intended) of ever verifying, but it is darn cool to look at.

https://imgbb.com/sbJqJxF

[Jag95]

The NAM is showing snow developing in western LA at 84hr, but a warm nose above freezing near the coast. Not much above freezing, dicey. Maybe it can cool.
ICON delivers for SETX and coastal LA before heading south again.

[Steve]

The NAM is showing snow developing in western LA at 84hr, but a warm nose above freezing near the coast. Not much above freezing, dicey. Maybe it can cool.
ICON delivers for SETX and coastal LA before heading south again.

GFS looking like an ice storm with heavy rain offshore. 11” of snow between Alexandria and Baton Rouge and heading to Columbia/McComb MS. New band drops 6” on Pensacola so good news Ivanhater. I’d come visit but I ain’t riding my bike that far if we get that much snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=108

[Jag95]

The NAM is showing snow developing in western LA at 84hr, but a warm nose above freezing near the coast. Not much above freezing, dicey. Maybe it can cool.
ICON delivers for SETX and coastal LA before heading south again.

GFS looking like an ice storm with heavy rain offshore. 11” of snow between Alexandria and Baton Rouge and heading to Columbia/McComb MS. New band drops 6” on Pensacola so good news Ivanhater. I’d come visit but I ain’t riding my bike that far if we get that much snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=108

That skew shows no room to spare. It follows 32 degrees all the way down nearly, I don't really care for sleet. Splitting hairs over three days out, but I feel like my team's in the Super Bowl up by 4 with the other team on the 2 yard line with time for one play.

[Steve]

The NAM is showing snow developing in western LA at 84hr, but a warm nose above freezing near the coast. Not much above freezing, dicey. Maybe it can cool.
ICON delivers for SETX and coastal LA before heading south again.

GFS looking like an ice storm with heavy rain offshore. 11” of snow between Alexandria and Baton Rouge and heading to Columbia/McComb MS. New band drops 6” on Pensacola so good news Ivanhater. I’d come visit but I ain’t riding my bike that far if we get that much snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=108

That skew shows no room to spare. It follows 32 degrees all the way down nearly, I don't really care for sleet. Splitting hairs over three days out, but I feel like my team's in the Super Bowl up by 4 with the other team on the 2 yard line with time for one play.

I’m down. Canadian with the heavy for Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Montgomery, Eastern Shore and it moves it more NE after so Pensacola getting 4” but on the edge as it lifts out a little more sharply.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=114

[Ivanhater]

This feels like tropical season, woke up to take a quick look at the models lol

GFS sith a huge hit and CMC.

I don't blame you, Steve haa

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[Steve]

Lmao. I never follow winter because it’s usually a dud. Here’s hoping

[BigB0882]

I’m getting a little worried about this warm nose talk. Hopefully we can thread the needle but I realize that it depends on your exact location. Threading the needle for Houston is totally different than for Baton Rouge and for Florida panhandle. I just hope someone along the coast can win big. It’s so rare for this type of set up, someone should cash in.

[Jag95]

IvanHater will like the 0Z Euro. 5-7 inches from west of NOLA to Tally. By the way, 3.6" is the all-time record in Mobile, P'cola 2.3" and Tally 2.8".

[Ivanhater]

Holy smokes guys,

The Euro is the best yet!



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[Jag95]

New Orleans NWS:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall possible over the northern half of the area
and heavy mixed precipitation possible over the southern half of
the area. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches along
and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor and 2 to 6 inches south
of this line. Ice accumulations less than 1/4 inch north and
around a 1/4 inch south possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.


From their discussion:
...Confidence is now high enough that we have issued a winter storm
watch with accumulations anywhere from 3 to 8 inches for much of
the area Tuesday. It would not surprise me to see a few snow
bursts cause around 12" accumulations, but this should be isolated
in areas north of the interstate 10/12 corridor.

[Janie2006]

That corridor of heavy snowfall would be Baton Rouge/Slidell/ Diamondhead/Gulfport-Biloxi/Pascagoula.

Can’t imagine NWS Mobile not following suit, but stranger things have happened.

Seriously, take screenshots of these watches and warnings…it simply doesn’t happen very often deep in hurricane country.

[Ivanhater]

Love it Jag!

Mobile/Pensacola office just updated a few minutes ago. Up to 70% for Pensacola and Mobile!


Also 06z Icon still suppressed but much less so ..has a swath of snow along the Gulf coast now where it had nothing all day yesterday
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