Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[Brent]

Birmingham HWO!:

THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO WEDOWEE. THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OCCURRING WILL BE NORTH OF A SULLIGENT TO
WARRIOR TO ANNISTON LINE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY
TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. IF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

[JenyEliza]

Birmingham HWO!:

THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO WEDOWEE. THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OCCURRING WILL BE NORTH OF A SULLIGENT TO
WARRIOR TO ANNISTON LINE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY
TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. IF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

Cool!

[JenyEliza]

Here is the 0Z SAT Euro breakdown as I see it:

1) 7 AM-7 PM MON:

- ~.25" QPF ATL and .13" AHN. (Some of this lost to evap. cooling. (~.05"??..anyone else have a guess?).

- My educ. guess is ATL very close to 0C at 850 during much of period until late, when 0C line moves north to Roswell. AHN s/b near or a hair below 0C entire time.

- My guess is that no appreciable precip. falls earlier than 7 AM on Euro.

- My interpretation is rain/snow line very close to or a hair south of ATL at the start of precip. and near Roswell at 7 PM, and a little south or near AHN the entire period. Bulk of this period's precip. would be snow downtown ATL and it would be all snow in Roswell/AHN.

- My guess for 7 AM-7PM, after taking into account the somewhat warm ground everywhere initially and slightly warming 850's in ATL, is ~1-1.5" of sticking snow downtown ATL, ~1.5-2" near Roswell, and 0.5" in AHN.

- I'm assuming ~ isothermal 850 to ground once evap. cooling is completed. Do others agree with isothermal? There's no wedging/inversion as I see it.

2) 7 PM MON-7 AM TUE:

- QPF of ~.10" ATL and ~.12" AHN making entire event's QPF .35" ATL and .25" AHN. Event QPF is ~.5"-.6" NE AL to NW GA/AL border.

- This period is mainly rain, with maybe some rain/snow mix, for downtown ATL, mainly snow and rain/snow mix for Roswell, and snow for AHN. Precip. ends late evening ATL and a little later AHN.

- Additional measurable snow guess: none downtown ATL, 0-0.5" Roswell, and 1" AHN.

3) ENTIRE EVENT sticking snow suggested by my interp. of 0Z SAT Euro:

- 1" officially ATL
- 1-1.5" downtown ATL
- 2" Roswell
- 1.5" AHN
- 3-5" snow NE AL to NW GA/AL border.
For ATL-AHN, though not a "major" snow per se, this much snow would be a very signficant event imho. For NE AL/far NW GA, it could come close to "major" category if it verfies.

You mention Roswell several times, but that is in the NE suburbs of Atlanta. I'm on the NW side, roughly in the same latitude...how will the NW suburbs fair, in your opinion?

And you're right...this looks like a 'non-event' to those farther north of this part of the country, but given our recent spring like conditions, and the fact that we have spent the last 3 or 4 winters in a snow-starved condition, *if* this scenario were to verify, it would be a major event.

My kids and the neighborhood kids are in my yard right now playing baseball. I just went to check on them, and (do I dare say this?)...it just feels like *now! Very cold, cloudy and blustery....

[Lowpressure]

Call is for light measurable snow here in Charlotte Metro and points south starting around sunrise Monday.

[LarryWx]

You mention Roswell several times, but that is in the NE suburbs of Atlanta. I'm on the NW side, roughly in the same latitude...how will the NW suburbs fair, in your opinion?

JenyEliza,
Based on model consensus, I think those near Roswell's latitude west of I-75 would do better and better, especially as one gets close to the AL border due to more QPF. So, perhaps close to 2-2.5" near I-75 and maybe near 2.5-3" in the far NW suburbs.

[JenyEliza]

You mention Roswell several times, but that is in the NE suburbs of Atlanta. I'm on the NW side, roughly in the same latitude...how will the NW suburbs fair, in your opinion?

JenyEliza,
Based on model consensus, I think those near Roswell's latitude west of I-75 would do better and better, especially as one gets close to the AL border due to more QPF. So, perhaps close to 2-2.5" near I-75 and maybe near 2.5-3" in the far NW suburbs.

I'm 3 counties away from the AL border, so I hope you're right.

Here's our SWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-050845-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT... DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN
345 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...


A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL MOISTEN RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF A ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PREVENT THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING MUCH ON ROADWAYS...BUT BRIDGES COULD BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES...AND THE EXACT TRACK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE. RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

$$

[Lowpressure]

Jen, what is your take on Monday?

[Brent]

I'm thinking it's going to be a VERY borderline event for the I-20 corridor Monday. I'm much more interested in next weekend... VERY cold and a nice storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174s.gif

[Lowpressure]

Brent, I agree that next weekend looks to be a cold and potentially snowfilled weekend for us all here in the South. Monday still looks to be on the light side for us, temps profiles here are good for snow, not much moisture to work with it would seem.

[JenyEliza]

Jen, what is your take on Monday?

My take? (remembering that I am just a snow-starved southern girl who really knows nothing about the science of meteorology, but who has lived here for 38 years and knows how these things go)??

While I'd like to say Monday's gonna be a no-school day for the kids, I don't think so.

If I had to say, with everything I've seen so far, and with this weird winter we've had...Monday will be a few flurries, something pretty to look at, and more than the 9 whole teeny-tiny-snowflakes we've seen in 4 years.

Beyond that...my gut tells me we'll be slammed hard one good time before March 30. This winter is eerily similar to '93. Got our hopes up so many times, only to have them crushed. By the time Superstorm came...we'd all gotten our spring/summer clothes out and were totally unprepared for snow.

I don't think we'll see a storm on the same order as 93, but we'll see something white, wet and fluffy when we finally give up altogether.

Monday will be snow for the early birds and cold winter rain for those who don't get up in time to see it.

Just my hunch.

[Lowpressure]

Sounds pretty similar to here, they are saying light accumulations, we will see. I am with Brent and others on next weekend being a possible major player.

[JenyEliza]

I'm thinking it's going to be a VERY borderline event for the I-20 corridor Monday. I'm much more interested in next weekend... VERY cold and a nice storm.

That's promising! But still not ready to get my heart set on snow just yet. I *do* think we'll have one good storm before the end of March. Just don't know when.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_174s.gif

^^shows me sitting right in the heart of whatever precip we get.

Come on down COLD, SNOWY WEATHER.

[Cookiely]

Hope my nieces and nephew get to see a little of the white stuff. The children get so excited.
Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KBMX 042155
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WINTER LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY ARRIVED WEATHER FANS. IT`S BEEN A
RATHER RAW DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
TODAY WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP SHOP. THE ADVECTION
LANES HAVE BEEN OPENED. LOOKING FOR THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR
THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP A PARADE OF
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS COMING DOWN AND US ON THE EDGE WINTERY
PRECIP A FEW TIMES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

BEFORE I JUMP INTO THAT...LET ME TALK ABOUT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE
WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES WINDS WILL BE UP ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM
BOTTOMING OUT FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 24
TO 32.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE NEXT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS COMES TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD BRINGING OUR FIRST REAL CHANCE OF WINTERY PRECIP.
THIS IS STILL A TOUGH FORECAST BECAUSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS. AT THIS TIME A SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER AR AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST SKIRTING THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF COAST. I CAN`T STRESS
ENOUGH HOW MUCH 30 MILES EITHER WAY WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR NOW WE`VE ELECTED TO DRAW A RAIN SNOW LINE
FROM ROUGHLY TUSCALOOSA...TO CALERA...TO WEDOWEE AND AREAS NORTH.
BELIEVE ALL OF THIS WILL START OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO A MIX AND THEN PERHAPS ALL SNOW FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. DID I MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDER SNOW? MAY SEE THAT
AT SOME POINT BUT ELECTED NOT TO PUT IN THE GRIDS. AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATION ARE THE USUAL COLDER VALLEYS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY
LUNCH ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND ARE HIGHLIGHTING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED ON
SUNDAY.

EXPECT A COUPLE OF NEAR NORMAL DAYS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE NEXT BRUSH WITH WINTERY PRECIP COMES A
KNOCKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO PIN THE
DETAILS DOWN SO STAY TUNED.

THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COORDINATION.

&&

[Weatherfreak14]

Is anyone expecting snow for Charleston, Sc area. Local mets are saying 40%chance of light snow 20miles inland from coast?

[Lowpressure]

It is possible for you, but I would be more excited about the Friday system, it could be big for coastal areas and it appears to be plenty cold for all of us.

[Lowpressure]

Jen, looks like you have a Winter Storm Watch, Brent how about your area? Here we are in a special weather statement for around 1 inch, our WSW parameters are a little higher here I think. Areas North of Atlanta look to get around 2 inches, especially on grassy surfaces.

[JenyEliza]

Jen, looks like you have a Winter Storm Watch, Brent how about your area? Here we are in a special weather statement for around 1 inch, our WSW parameters are a little higher here I think. Areas North of Atlanta look to get around 2 inches, especially on grassy surfaces.

Yep....I just got up a little while ago and was shocked to see I'm in the Winter Storm watch area (up to 2 inch area). I'll believe it when I see it.

If ya get snow...enjoy!

[Portastorm]

I hope y'all in the south and southeast get some of the white stuff ... for at least a little excitement!

Good luck Brent and JenyEliza!

[JenyEliza]

I hope y'all in the south and southeast get some of the white stuff ... for at least a little excitement!

Good luck Brent and JenyEliza!

Been thinking about this, and...I think I know why this is happening.

For the past month my front yard has been dug up by our water dept. We have a sewer easement for a rain water drainage system that they just replaced. Last week, they finished their work and put down the prettiest centipede sod, free of charge to me.

*Of course* we'll get snow now!

[Weatherfreak14]

It is possible for you, but I would be more excited about the Friday system, it could be big for coastal areas and it appears to be plenty cold for all of us.

Awsome, I just like t see snow here since we usually get it every once or two years.