Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[LarryWx]

Also, JB seems to be doing a better job after his couple of busts this season. He now aknowledges that he will be much more cautious with his forecasting and has to be quite comfident before making calls like he is now.

I've been reading JB ever since the winter of 2000-01, when he kept fearing that the "Ghost of 1899" was going to haunt the eastern U.S. during 2/2001. Needless to say, nothing like that ever occurred. It was a very warm month in the eastern U.S.

During the winter of 2001-02, he constantly called for major cold, partially imho due to the GFS constantly calling for it in the 11-15 day period. It never came. I recall JB then acknowledging his errors (ignoring Canadian warmth for one), and saying he'd be more careful in the future with predictions like he had.

My point is not that it won't or can't get quite cold in 2/2006. It may very well occur. Who knows? (I'd love to see it personally and am closely following the models.) My point is that JB is strongly biased toward calling for extreme events (like cold and snowstorms in winter as well as heat and hurricanes in summer/fall), and I don't think he has become more cautious. I don't think his bias toward the extreme will allow him to avoid calling for them. So, I personally don't put much stock in his calls for extremes since he does it so often. Of course, he may end up being right this time as he was during the 11/20-12/20/05 period.

Also, I rarely put much confidence in very cold 11-15 day GFS runs, including their ensembles. I prefer to see the intense cold show up consistently in the late 6-10 day period of the GFS, Euro, and CDN ensemble before starting to get too excited about the possibility.
During the winter of 2001-02, the GFS teased the eastern U.S. with historic cold airmass after historic cold airmass during days 11-15, and it NEVER verified! The GFS has a verified significant cold bias, especially in the 11-15 day period. The way I see it, GFS 11-15 day Arctic cold may or may not verify. Who knows? I hope we get it!

[Portastorm]

Friday's peek at the Models, subtitled "Welcome to the Waffle House."

The 0z run loses the arctic outbreak entirely for the southern Plains and Texas, while the 6z run spins us a massive north and west Texas snowstorm after Feb. 6th with arctic air pressing down on the Lone Star state in the same time frame.

The NCEP ensembles this morning show a good flow beyond Feb. 5-6 to bring arctic air south and then seem to develop a split flow pattern with an active southern jet undercutting the 500 mb flow from the poles southward. Of course, should enough arctic air move southward into our area, this could be an ideal set up for some wintry precip events.

Main point I'm trying to make is the models are showing variability and we may have to go back to Air Force Met's "chicken bones" analogy to figure out what might happen!!

[WaitingForSiren]

I havent been following JB too long, but every time I listen to his point-counterpoint discussions he seems to talk about major east coast snowstorms and enormous hurricanes hitting the Atlantic coast. Personally, i think hes an adrenaline junkee (like me, heh), who just hopes for the worst. I think he should be a bit more realistic with his forecasts.

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z run of the GFS is still rolling in ... but a quick glance shows me it progs a major snowstorm for the southern Plains and a major mixed precip event for Texas around Feb. 7-9 time frame.

Game on?

Here is a link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't get too excited yet, looks mostly like a TX Panhandle event to me.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too excited yet, looks mostly like a TX Panhandle event to me.

I bet I know what you're looking at. Be careful about judging a winter weather event via the 540 thickness line as AFM and other pro mets have told us. We will be dealing with some very dense cold air that could overwhelm the southern stream jet.

Am I excited? No, not yet. Just growing more curious about the developing pattern change.

[gboudx]

If the models continue this for 4-5 more days, keeping the timeframe of 2/7-2/9 consistent with that type of weather, then I may start running towards the bandwagon. Save me a seat.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't get too excited yet, looks mostly like a TX Panhandle event to me.

I bet I know what you're looking at. Be careful about judging a winter weather event via the 540 thickness line as AFM and other pro mets have told us. We will be dealing with some very dense cold air that could overwhelm the southern stream jet.

Am I excited? No, not yet. Just growing more curious about the developing pattern change.

Umm, it's a 4-panel chart, not a 1 panel chart. I never focus on one factor as stated above.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too excited yet, looks mostly like a TX Panhandle event to me.

I bet I know what you're looking at. Be careful about judging a winter weather event via the 540 thickness line as AFM and other pro mets have told us. We will be dealing with some very dense cold air that could overwhelm the southern stream jet.

Am I excited? No, not yet. Just growing more curious about the developing pattern change.

Umm, it's a 4-panel chart, not a 1 panel chart. I never focus on one factor as stated above.

Alright ... forgive me for making that assumption.

However, when I look at the 4-panel chart for 288 hrs and 300 hrs for this run, I see winds at the 850 mb level (lower level) running out of the northeast for much of Texas. Those would be northeast winds coming from an arctic airmass more or less entrenched in the eastern U.S. Consequently, I think this argues for a classic Texas wintry weather event where you may have west to southwest overunning winds at a higher level, and low level cold air set underneath.

[jasons2k]

still tea leaves at this point....

[Johnny]

I'll jump aboard Feb 2nd.....maybe.

[southerngale]

All aboard...



Maybe we all have to jump on board for it to work!

[Portastorm]

I'm on board because anywhere is better than here (my operative definition of "here" is: Texas weather in the month of January 2006).

C'mon pattern change ... c'mon ice and snow and arctic air ... whoo-hooo!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm on board too...I see all the signs setting up for a decent cold snap in February. Yes, some people seem to be biased warm right now because of all the past events that never played out...but this time I have a feeling that the cold WILL come and it will come hard.

[Tyler]

This is what a pro met on another forum had to say about the upcoming pattern change:

Things will continue to progress in FEB to a more wintry pattern. The MJO PHASE 8 will allow the major features of the N PAC to push to different longitudes and begin to change the pattern over the CONUS. THE ALL PV / arctic dome will SHIFT NW into alaska / n pac and begin to form quite a pNA RIDGE. We will be left w/ a generally FLAT flow in canada w/ PNA ridge formation. THE situation will NOT last, very unstable pattern b/c of the mid latitude cyclones moving across the CONUS, which will bring a wide range of elements to many in early FEB. Nothing screaming MAJOR winter storm ATTM in my eyes. The instability of the flow leads to PV genesis. LIKELY in south/east canada. This feature combined w/ the N PAC PV will further intensify the PNA ridge as we get into mid month AND DEEP ARCTIC heights will begin pouring around the ridge into canada. The migration of the Arctic dome may take awhile, but when it does come down, things get crazy in the CONUS.

MAJOR ARCTIC COLD and winter storms likely second 1/2 of FEB into early MAR....

WE havent seen anything yet----

It would be pretty cool if those events came to pass!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think many will be in for a big shock. In a month I bet we will all be on here telling our stories about the major arctic outbreak that will have hit and talking about how much snow we got in our area of Houston. wouldn't that be nice.... (By March though I will be ready for the cold to end)

[gboudx]

So now it's the 2nd half of Feb? I thought the timeframe was around the 2nd week in Feb?

[jasons2k]

I think JB actually has good discussion points today. His point #5 about the models sounds a lot like what I posted yesterday.

[Tyler]

jschlitz, what did he say his point #5 was?

[Portastorm]

jschlitz, what did he say his point #5 was?

Basically he said the GFS and Euro operational runs right now are too unstable to trust and that the ensembles and the "trend" are better indicators of what lies ahead.