The 6Z GFS looks interesting. Early Thursday it tries to bring some wintery precip. very close to our area:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WACO IS
CONTINUES TO HAVE ASOS VISIBILITY EQUIPMENT ERRORS SO ANY REPORTED
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ERROR WITH A 10 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
350 AM CST
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS ALLOWED FOR OPTIMAL
VIEWING OF THE GEMINIDS METEOR SHOWER. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CANOPY
OF HIGH CLOUDS (WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD/SPECKLED APPEARANCE ON IR)
IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION FROM THE NW. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION DUE TO ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE ON THE 325K LEVEL. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM...ALBEIT PLEASANT...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUALLY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S. THE GFS MOS LOOKS
GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS...BUT HAS ATTAINED A SIGNIFICANT WARM BIAS FOR
LOWS THE LAST 3 DAYS AND ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE INTERACTING FEATURES ADD
UP TO GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS...SOME TIME FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH BRINGING THE COLD FRONT IN EARLY IN
THE WEEK...WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD MARCH THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FINALLY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AT THE BASE OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTED
NORTH FROM THE TROPICS. THE GFS IS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS FOR DECEMBER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD
FRONT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. ONLY CAVEAT ABOUT RAIN CHANCES NOW IS IF THE COLD
FRONT IS AS STRONG/DEEP AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
CHANCE POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING ARE
THE ONLY REASON ONE OR TWO DAYS ARE NOT FAVORED FOR LIKELY POPS.
FINALLY..WE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL THE ATMOSPHERE
ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIP OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WE BELIEVE
THAT THIS SOLUTION IS OVERDONE AND THE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SUCH. WE DO EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY RAIN...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALOFT.
The possibilities are there.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS
MORNING AS 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WACO IS
CONTINUES TO HAVE ASOS VISIBILITY EQUIPMENT ERRORS SO ANY REPORTED
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ERROR WITH A 10 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
350 AM CST
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS ALLOWED FOR OPTIMAL
VIEWING OF THE GEMINIDS METEOR SHOWER. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CANOPY
OF HIGH CLOUDS (WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD/SPECKLED APPEARANCE ON IR)
IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION FROM THE NW. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION DUE TO ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE ON THE 325K LEVEL. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM...ALBEIT PLEASANT...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUALLY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S. THE GFS MOS LOOKS
GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS...BUT HAS ATTAINED A SIGNIFICANT WARM BIAS FOR
LOWS THE LAST 3 DAYS AND ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE INTERACTING FEATURES ADD
UP TO GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS...SOME TIME FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH BRINGING THE COLD FRONT IN EARLY IN
THE WEEK...WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A VERY SLOW
SOUTHWARD MARCH THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FINALLY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AT THE BASE OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTED
NORTH FROM THE TROPICS. THE GFS IS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS FOR DECEMBER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED UP AND OVER THE COLD
FRONT AS SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. ONLY CAVEAT ABOUT RAIN CHANCES NOW IS IF THE COLD
FRONT IS AS STRONG/DEEP AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
CHANCE POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING ARE
THE ONLY REASON ONE OR TWO DAYS ARE NOT FAVORED FOR LIKELY POPS.
FINALLY..WE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND DYNAMICALLY COOL THE ATMOSPHERE
ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIP OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WE BELIEVE
THAT THIS SOLUTION IS OVERDONE AND THE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SUCH. WE DO EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY RAIN...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALOFT.
The possibilities are there.
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cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6108
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Interesting read from Jeff this morning.
Early next week:
Big changes on tap for next week as large and potent upper trough begins its assault on TX. Cold polar air mass is unleashed down the plains Sunday and arrives in N TX on Monday and then slowly bleeds southward into SE TX Tuesday and Wednesday. Timing of this front is problematic as the upper support does not favor a frontal passage, however dense cold air masses can seep under the unfavorable SW flow aloft and punch through under their own density. Numerous short waves eject across the state ahead of the upper level low and interact with significant amounts of moisture. GFS PWS are progged to increase to near 1.8 inches which is nearly record levels for mid December. Low level tap originates in the western Caribbean Sea where current PWS are nearly 200% of normal. Rich moist air mass combined with a slow moving front, and strong upper air divergence all points to a significant rainfall event over the state. Timing is still in question, but widespread heavy rains and severe weather will be possible from Monday through Wednesday of next week.
Mid Week:
Potent upper low crosses the state post frontal passage. Strong isentropic upglide of warm moist Gulf air over the cold surface dome will occur. GFS with support from other available guidance suggest mid level cooling under the upper low track and P-type change over across TX Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There will be the potential for a band of heavy snow along and just north of the upper level low track during the period. Feel all of this will remain N and W of an Austin to Waco line, however the exact track of the upper level low will determine where and if any winter precip. falls.
Cold weather remains in place through the Christmas holiday with another potential shot at precip. around Christmas Eve.
Early next week:
Big changes on tap for next week as large and potent upper trough begins its assault on TX. Cold polar air mass is unleashed down the plains Sunday and arrives in N TX on Monday and then slowly bleeds southward into SE TX Tuesday and Wednesday. Timing of this front is problematic as the upper support does not favor a frontal passage, however dense cold air masses can seep under the unfavorable SW flow aloft and punch through under their own density. Numerous short waves eject across the state ahead of the upper level low and interact with significant amounts of moisture. GFS PWS are progged to increase to near 1.8 inches which is nearly record levels for mid December. Low level tap originates in the western Caribbean Sea where current PWS are nearly 200% of normal. Rich moist air mass combined with a slow moving front, and strong upper air divergence all points to a significant rainfall event over the state. Timing is still in question, but widespread heavy rains and severe weather will be possible from Monday through Wednesday of next week.
Mid Week:
Potent upper low crosses the state post frontal passage. Strong isentropic upglide of warm moist Gulf air over the cold surface dome will occur. GFS with support from other available guidance suggest mid level cooling under the upper low track and P-type change over across TX Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There will be the potential for a band of heavy snow along and just north of the upper level low track during the period. Feel all of this will remain N and W of an Austin to Waco line, however the exact track of the upper level low will determine where and if any winter precip. falls.
Cold weather remains in place through the Christmas holiday with another potential shot at precip. around Christmas Eve.
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aggiecutter
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
A situation similar to what Jeff mentioned above occurred in Texarkana in December of 83'. An intense upper level low came across NE Texas the morning of the 18th that year dropping nearly 10" of snow here in just 5 hours. That is the second highest single day snowfall total for this area since 65'. The most was in January of 2001 when we received close to 11".
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
GFSx models want to bring the cutoff low in ahead of cold air (look at precip panels as well) http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/g ... panel.html. If cold front could come in earlier or have low stall for 18 to 24 hrs we could have real good chances for winter precip (snow to the N, and ice to the S) of NCTX. At least seasonable temps will return for the Holiday's ( high's mid 50's to lows's upper 20"s). 
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TrekkerCC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 263
- Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 10:19 pm
- Location: North Central Texas (Dallas Area)
Add me to the cautiously optimistic column for next week chances for Wintry Precip in Texas. I think NWS FWD may have dismissed the wintry precip too quickly (and I have noticed this tendency to be very conservative before in the long range), and it could come back to bite them. Looking at the situation for next week, it looks like the southern plains (somewhere) may be a target for a little wintry mix. GFS (and to a lesser extent the ECMWF) has hinted at some modified Canadian air to interact with a upper-level low/trough progressing eastward.
-TrekkerCC
-TrekkerCC
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gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4080
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Trekker, even though they dismissed the wintry precip next week, it's curious that they even mentioned it. It's almost a week away, and they could certainly have waited a few days before bringing it up if they think it'll only be a chilly rain. Makes me wonder if they aren't totally sold on their thinking at this time.
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aggiecutter
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
The Ensembles continue to look cold for Christmas day. As far as the event the middle of next week, it is just too hard to tell right now. The GFS should start to get a pretty good handle on it 3-4 days out. I will say that these type of events have the potential to leave heavy snowfall in a 50-100 mile wide band.
Ensembles 12-14-06:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 4_usbg.gif
Ensembles 12-14-06:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 4_usbg.gif
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Early next weeks NWS forecast for Houston. Looks rainy/stormy and then a cooldown (as has been predicted for many days):
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 71.
Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 60.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY A BROAD TROF. THIS WILL RESULT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION EACH DAY. BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS FAIRLY BRISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DOWN TO THE DEW POINTS. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE OR SOME SPRINKLES...NO GOOD CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THRU THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND SHARPEN WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR BAJA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT OUT NEWD SOMEWHERE ACROSS TX THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GFS CONTINUING TO TAKE THE MOST SLY ROUTE TO NEAR THE BIG BEND. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY A FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE LIKELY GFS POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION JUST YET. OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER BY MID-WEEK AND CLEARING BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD.
At least they are hedging their bets this time...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY A BROAD TROF. THIS WILL RESULT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION EACH DAY. BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS FAIRLY BRISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DOWN TO THE DEW POINTS. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE OR SOME SPRINKLES...NO GOOD CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THRU THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND SHARPEN WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR BAJA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT OUT NEWD SOMEWHERE ACROSS TX THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GFS CONTINUING TO TAKE THE MOST SLY ROUTE TO NEAR THE BIG BEND. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY A FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE LIKELY GFS POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION JUST YET. OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER BY MID-WEEK AND CLEARING BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD.
At least they are hedging their bets this time...
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gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4080
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Only the wintry precip part of the DFW AFD follows:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
...
MEANWHILE...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION...FINALLY KICKING OUT BY MIDWEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DYNAMICALLY COOLING. IN ADDITION...WET
BULB COOLING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY REACH
FREEZING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A QUICK SHOT OF WINTER PRECIP AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS A FULL 7 DAYS
AWAY...WE WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE INTRODUCING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A COLD RAIN. /13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
...
MEANWHILE...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION...FINALLY KICKING OUT BY MIDWEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DYNAMICALLY COOLING. IN ADDITION...WET
BULB COOLING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY REACH
FREEZING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A QUICK SHOT OF WINTER PRECIP AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS IS A FULL 7 DAYS
AWAY...WE WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE INTRODUCING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A COLD RAIN. /13
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
The latest AFD from the NWS in Memphis also hints or eludes to a small possibility of wintry or "interesting" weather next Thursday. That kind of goes along with the possibility in TX since it's common for systems that bring wintry weather to TX, esp N Texas to bring wintry weather to the Mid South..
The AFD out of Jackson also says that if a certain scenario plays out then a cold rain and/or other wintry stuff is possible.
Something to watch. Yay!
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
FOR NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON TWO FEATURES...ONE WILL...THE
SYSTEMS REMAIN UNPHASED AND ALLOW THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TO
WORK THROUGH AND ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OR WILL THE SYSTEM PHASE AND BRING A POWERHOUSE
STORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENT MODELS...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AGREED ON THE TWO PIECE
SOLUTION WITH BOTH PROVIDING A COOLER SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD THEN BRING A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDE AN INTERESTING
SCENARIO TO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR
ANY CHANGES. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH SOME COLD RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. 12Z GFS COMING AROUND TO THE COOLER SOLUTION
INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BY THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND ECMWF. THE GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE COOLDOWN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND APPEARS CORRECT AND
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST. SOME OVERUNNING MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE
FOR THE LONG TERM IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
The AFD out of Jackson also says that if a certain scenario plays out then a cold rain and/or other wintry stuff is possible.
Something to watch. Yay!
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Kelarie wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY A BROAD TROF. THIS WILL RESULT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION EACH DAY. BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS FAIRLY BRISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DOWN TO THE DEW POINTS. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE OR SOME SPRINKLES...NO GOOD CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THRU THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND SHARPEN WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR BAJA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT OUT NEWD SOMEWHERE ACROSS TX THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GFS CONTINUING TO TAKE THE MOST SLY ROUTE TO NEAR THE BIG BEND. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY A FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE LIKELY GFS POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION JUST YET. OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER BY MID-WEEK AND CLEARING BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD.
At least they are hedging their bets this time...
You got that part right, Kelarie! They're normally clueless about these things until the event is upon us. The mention of it at all surprised me.
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aggiecutter
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
The local forecast is mentioning the possibility, slight it maybe, of winter precipitation for Texarkana next Wednesday night into Thursday. It is very unusual for them even to mention it at all this far in advance.
Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 49. South wind around 5 mph.
Friday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow or rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: A slight chance of snow or rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Current local weather
Texarkana Regional-Webb Field
Last Update on Dec 14, 3:53 pm CST
Fair
73°F
(23°C)
Humidity: 35 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 G 21 MPH
Barometer: 29.94" (1013.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 44°F (7°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History:
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Tonight: Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 49. South wind around 5 mph.
Friday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Wednesday Night: A chance of snow or rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: A slight chance of snow or rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Current local weather
Texarkana Regional-Webb Field
Last Update on Dec 14, 3:53 pm CST
Fair
73°F
(23°C)
Humidity: 35 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 G 21 MPH
Barometer: 29.94" (1013.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 44°F (7°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History:
Radar and Satellite (Click for larger image)
Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data
Detailed point forecasts
Click Map for Forecast
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Portastorm wrote:Kelarie wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST THU DEC 14 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY A BROAD TROF. THIS WILL RESULT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION EACH DAY. BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS FAIRLY BRISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DOWN TO THE DEW POINTS. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE OR SOME SPRINKLES...NO GOOD CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THRU THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG AND SHARPEN WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR BAJA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT OUT NEWD SOMEWHERE ACROSS TX THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GFS CONTINUING TO TAKE THE MOST SLY ROUTE TO NEAR THE BIG BEND. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY A FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE LIKELY GFS POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION JUST YET. OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER BY MID-WEEK AND CLEARING BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD.
At least they are hedging their bets this time...
You got that part right, Kelarie! They're normally clueless about these things until the event is upon us. The mention of it at all surprised me.
I just hope the GFS is correct, because it shows the upper low much further south than the EURO does. That would mean a better chance of some kind of winter precipitation to fall in our area. Although, at this point I would be happy if we could just get something to fall from those clouds to give central Texas some moisture.
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
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- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
18Z GFS..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
^^Tuesday evening = snow in NW Texas, heavy rain and storms in most other parts of TX^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Wednesday morning = Rain, storms, snow, ice, wind and cold over much of the state. Winter precip. could even mix south into central and parts of SE Texas.^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^Wednesday afternoon = Very cold 850mb temps. being pumped into the state.^^
Continues to grow more and more interesting with each run. Looks like a pretty big storm could be a brewin' out of all this. Also, based on the latest runs...I would say north Texas has a pretty decent shot at winter-precip. from this.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
^^Tuesday evening = snow in NW Texas, heavy rain and storms in most other parts of TX^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Wednesday morning = Rain, storms, snow, ice, wind and cold over much of the state. Winter precip. could even mix south into central and parts of SE Texas.^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^Wednesday afternoon = Very cold 850mb temps. being pumped into the state.^^
Continues to grow more and more interesting with each run. Looks like a pretty big storm could be a brewin' out of all this. Also, based on the latest runs...I would say north Texas has a pretty decent shot at winter-precip. from this.
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Don't forget the sleet and snow that fell less than a week ago in parts of south-central TX with temps. in the 40s. It doesn't have to be 32F for snow and sleet to reach the surface as long as the upper atmosphere is cold enough and/or the lower atmosphere is dry enough (wet-bulb temps. at or below 32F).southerngale wrote:If the Fort Worth NWS is saying their temps may briefly reach freezing, I don't think we have much chance of any type of winter precipitation this far south. Not that I really thought we did anyway, but it's always nice to dream~
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