TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB just clarified in his late evening post that he thinks the following is possible in Texas as a result of the arctic cold blast that is coming in early Feb:

-Highs near ZERO in Amarillo
-Highs in the TEENS in Dallas
-Highs in the TWENTIES in Houston
-Threat of a freeze to the lower Rio Grande Valley
-many snow/ice threats starting the middle of next week onward for places in the southern plains eastward (which would include TX).



If these ideas verify then..WOW! That would be some very brutal cold air for the state.

[wxman57]

JB just clarified in his late evening post that he thinks the following is possible in Texas as a result of the arctic cold blast that is coming in early Feb:

-Highs near ZERO in Amarillo
-Highs in the TEENS in Dallas
-Highs in the TWENTIES in Houston
-Threat of a freeze to the lower Rio Grande Valley
-many snow/ice threats starting the middle of next week onward for places in the southern plains eastward (which would include TX).



If these ideas verify then..WOW! That would be some very brutal cold air for the state.

That forecast looks pretty good to me. Even though the 18Z just about showed no freezing temps in Texas, take a look at the 500mb pattern!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204m.gif

That's not a warm pattern by any means! And look at the -32C air in Canada heading south on Feb. 1:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is going to be a shocker to many when/if it actually plays out. Right now the average Houstonian is probably clicking onto weather.com and seeing that next weekend is forecast to be in the lower 60s under partly sunny skies and probably think the worst of winter is over with for us.

There will probably be many confused looks on peoples faces when they wake up next weekend to temperatures in the 20s with stiff north winds and possible snow showers in the area.

Let's just hope the local media outlets can catch onto this early enough.

[Air Force Met]

JB just clarified in his late evening post that he thinks the following is possible in Texas as a result of the arctic cold blast that is coming in early Feb:

-Highs near ZERO in Amarillo
-Highs in the TEENS in Dallas
-Highs in the TWENTIES in Houston
-Threat of a freeze to the lower Rio Grande Valley
-many snow/ice threats starting the middle of next week onward for places in the southern plains eastward (which would include TX).



If these ideas verify then..WOW! That would be some very brutal cold air for the state.

That forecast looks pretty good to me. Even though the 18Z just about showed no freezing temps in Texas, take a look at the 500mb pattern!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204m.gif

That's not a warm pattern by any means! And look at the -32C air in Canada heading south on Feb. 1:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

You know...I'm not sure I've ever seen a 500mb flow that perfect. In school I used to draw patterns like that to make the ideal arctic outbreak. The other classic outbreaks we have had have been pretty strong SW flow types...this one has Texas receiving flow from across the pole and Siberia.

Unbelievable pattern if it verifies.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I decided to look at the Austin news and see what they were saying at this point, and I happened to come across this great TV met forecast...

http://www.kvue.com/weather/?ln
^^click the link and then find the section of the page where you can watch the weather forecast^^

I really wish we could get a met like this on the air in Houston. This guy was very good in explaining the situation in detail and giving his own bold thoughts on what may happen.

He's sort of like Tom Skilling on WGN out of Chicago. Have you seen his blog?

One of our Corpus TV Mets really wanted to pull the triger on the Arctic front for next weekend and there after, but didn't want to just yet set it in stone yet. I could kind of tell by the way he said it that he thinks we are going to be in for the real deal.

[Portastorm]

So, let me get this straight ... you guys are telling me we might be able to have another polar bear pool party next weekend ... is that right?

I'll tell aggiecutter, CaptinCrunch, and EWG.

[aggiecutter]

I noticed that Bastardi left off Austin when he predicted the highs. That probably means they'll have highs in the upper 60's or lower 70's.

[GeneratorPower]

This is the type of cold where people die due to:

A) Knocking over a kerosene heater.

B) Putting blankets on a space heater.

C) Running a generator inside when they lose power.

This is off-topic, but I had to share it. I was at a volunteer fire department station today on a generator service call. Guess what? They had installed a permanent, outdoor generator INSIDE the firehouse. That's INSANE. These are FIREFIGHTERS. They RESCUE people from carbon monoxide-filled houses. The fire chief told me that it was the OLD fire cheif's doing, and they tried to tell him it was a bad idea. He's fired now, thankfully.

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS is coming in now...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So, let me get this straight ... you guys are telling me we might be able to have another polar bear pool party next weekend ... is that right?

I'll tell aggiecutter, CaptinCrunch, and EWG.

Am I invited this time?

[southerngale]

A well-respected local met posted this on the KFDM board...he's greg_kfdm_tv on here. He's not one to hype things, so he must believe the potential is there to even mention it.

Interesting.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 5:36 pm Post subject: Major Arctic Outbreak Late Next Week?


Many of the computer models that we use to forecast the weather in the extended range are pointing toward a significant threat of a major arctic outbreak into Texas late next week.

The potential is there for some of the coldest weather since the big freeze of December, 1989.

I will be closely watching this developing weather pattern and will update as needed. I just wanted to give everyone an early "heads up".

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS is out to hour 156 so far...

Looks like it is continuing to follow the 500mb trend of past runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif
^^About 6am next Thursday morning^^

Update: Run now out to hour 168...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^About 6pm next Thursday evening^^

**00z run looks faster than previous runs**

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The overnight AFD's by the Texas NWS offices are going to be very interesting to read in the morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

midnight (12am) next Friday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

It (the 0z GFS run) then continues the chilly 500mb look through next weekend. However, it does not look quite as cold as the 18z run showed it.

Overall though I would say the "trend" has continued and all systems still look to be go for late next week and next weekend.

BTW: The peak of the cold on this run looks to probably be sometime on Friday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml IMO though, I think there will actually be a secondary, stronger surge over the weekend. The 0z is not as aggressive on this fact, but based on the setup and previous runs/other models (as well as what I am hearing from pro mets) I think that is what will happen.

Being that we are now less than a week away from the start of this; hopefully the NWS offices will jump on board by tomorrow.

[PTPatrick]

Well, 0z not looks as bad. I wish I understood just what a 510 line meant in terms of temp. I know there is som 474 area up in mn with this airmass, which I assume is well below zero. It doesnt seem that cold on the last run. I have had the 510 lin near me in Denver a few times this winter. but then if JB is saying zero for highs in Amarillo, then Denver would likely see below zero highs...Alas, if only I understood all these things fully.

[aggiecutter]

That's the coldest run(0z) at 500mb that I have seen from that model(GFS) the past couple days. I would disregard the temperature output as it doesn't match the upper level flow. It's just having trouble with surface features because of the extreme cold. If that pattern verifies next weekend, then Texas will be in the deep freeze from Friday through Monday, maybe even longer. Also, on Thursday, look for a surprise snow event for the northern parts of the state.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I sense a 1983 style outbreak is coming. I lived in the Weslaco area back then in the Valley and we had two to three weeks of below to much below temps before the big front came in on Christmas Eve. The same is happening right now.

I can sometimes get the Valley Ag Radio station on my AM dial in the mornings and JB is usually on giving the forecasts and talking about the weather trends down the road. I'll see if I can pick it up in the morning and hear what he says. If he is sounding the alarm about the farmers getting the smuge pots out and all of that stuff, then it's going to be the real deal.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

If you all want to get another indicator of what might be in store for the coming weeks for the nation, pay attention to the futures markets with the natural gas, heating oil, and crude prices. All of these traders subscribe to private forecasting services. Heck I guess you could throw frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ on this page) price too if Florida and the RGV are under the gun

http://bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html

[richtrav]

CCTX

You are right - the weather in South Texas was cool for about a week before the Big One came down on Christmas Day '83, but the setup was totally different back then: Dallas was in the deep freeze nearly the entire week before Christmas while the Valley was hovering around the 40s. Even the first major shot of cold air that sent DFW down to 5F didn't drop the temps below the 30s in the Valley, it was that 2nd fatal surge right behind it that did the trick. 1989 was also preceded by a couple of pretty bad freezes into the state, especially the one the weekend before the motherload came down.

[Portastorm]

My brief Friday morning perusal of the Euro and GFS doesn't seem to resolve much of anything re: surface temps and features next week. The 500mb flow on both models suggest direct transport of Arctic air down to Texas one week away (or less). The GFS acts like a giant dam is constructed along the Oklahoma/Texas border, holding back bitterly cold air later next week (yeah ... right.)

The 0z Euro run looks chilly next week but then gives us (central and south Texas) some kind of brief warm up next Friday. That's a new twist and will be interesting to see if the trend continues.