Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

Euro Op back to beast mode thundersleet’s going to like this one!! Transition zone is a freezing rain nightmare

[Portastorm]

This reminds me a lot of Dec 2017 setup across HC and SC TX. That event was pure dynamic in nature. In fact, I don't think we ever went below freezing here but the convective nature of the precip helped to cool layers above just enough to deliver some heavy burst of wet snow. Started across the Hill Country and then eventually transitioned from rain to snow further south in the evening. I'm sure there will be some differences but if I recall we were in the mid 40's earlier in the day and temps dropped from there as precip began to fall.

All about where the precip shield ends up. Right now, areas N and NW still favored but ICON and CMC continue to keep it close.

Agreed. I remember that evening watching it snow at a moderate pace in Austin while the surface temps were in the mid 30s.

Yup...all the kids were bummed out because they still had to go to school down here next day.

Haha! Yep. There were a lot of unhappy young folks that day.

I was even skeptical that day that we would see any snow because I was watching surface temps up to the 850mb level temps. Models weren't really showing it. It surprised me.

FWIW, I'm thinking this event will be more for central and north Texas. I think we're going to be too warm here unless the upper level low column moves directly over us.

[Throckmorton]

ICON's scary forecast for Austin:

33–30...Wednesday (very light snow changing to freezing rain; 0.32 inches of ice)

31–29....Thursday (freezing rain changing to snow; 0.28 inches of new ice; 5.8 inches of new snow)

That's an ice storm plus a snow storm. The ice accumulations would be very close to February 2023 levels.

EWX will get to issue ice storm warnings for the first time after deciding earlier this year to begin using them instead of broad–brush winter storm warnings.

I seriously hope this doesn't pan out. I have PTSD from the last winter storm due to being out of power for almost 4 days. My elderly father got sick due to that event and has never quite recovered.

Very, very sorry for that. The Austin power grid remains unprepared. Let's hope the models are wrong about the ice.

[rwfromkansas]

Not liking the snow to rain look in Dallas there on Euro.

I’m maybe safe in Tarrant.

Need just a tinge colder.

[Ntxw]

Euro is a bit faster than 0z which was faster than its 12z prior with the upper feature down south. Textbook big hitter of a SW low ejection winter storm.

[gpsnowman]

Euro Op back to beast mode thundersleet’s going to like this one!! Transition zone is a freezing rain nightmare

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1735992000/1736596800-YQWj4zWQN2Y.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1735992000/1736899200-qA03wnbvOcI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1735992000/1736899200-lakzwo26fmw.png

1.84 inches in Southern Dallas County. If that's all snow that would be insane. Helluva lot of rain either way

[Ntxw]

[bubba hotep]

A work of art!

[Ntxw]

Euro Op back to beast mode thundersleet’s going to like this one!! Transition zone is a freezing rain nightmare

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1735992000/1736596800-YQWj4zWQN2Y.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1735992000/1736899200-qA03wnbvOcI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1735992000/1736899200-lakzwo26fmw.png

1.84 inches in Southern Dallas County. If that's all snow that would be insane. Helluva lot of rain either way

Sometimes it's slightly different algorithms depending on the source site. Still though, just wow you dream about qpf events like this. This is the nor'easters in terms of phasing and ejection. Just look out in the Atlantic.

[gpsnowman]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

it was 3F degrees warmer 0z which was 10F warmer 12z yesterday!

[Stratton23]

The euro really has 50’s and 60’s in se texas while the northern half of the state gets frozen precipitation, all i can do is laugh now lol

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

Euro has always been on the warmer side of the guidance envelope in Texas winter setups, so I’m not too fazed by this. If other models like the icon, gfs, and eventually nam warm up too, I’ll get worried. I’ve sided with the icon on surface temps for most of our winter weather threats since 2021 and I feel that for the most part it’s been the better global model for this, so that’s what I’m siding with for now. Of course, I’m open to counter-evidence.

[JayDT]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

it was 3F degrees warmer 0z which was 10F warmer 12z yesterday!

So even the temps are trending better?

[Stratton23]

Beginning to see signs of a much bigger cold build up in our source region beyond the 18th or so , showing up in the op GFS and ensembles

[Brent]

I have never forgotten the Euro cancelled February 2021

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

Euro has always been on the warmer side of the guidance envelope in Texas winter setups, so I’m not too fazed by this. If other models like the icon, gfs, and eventually nam warm up too, I’ll get worried. I’ve sided with the icon on surface temps for most of our winter weather threats since 2021 and I feel that for the most part it’s been the better global model for this, so that’s what I’m siding with for now. Of course, I’m open to counter-evidence.

ICON temps and Euro qpf you get a shot at the greatest snow storm of all time at DFW and points west. Abilene kind of hard to beat Feb 2021.

[gpsnowman]

https://i.imgur.com/PJY7ymc.png

https://i.imgur.com/NdGLa5e.png

Let's shave off about 3 degrees. Just to be safe.

Euro has always been on the warmer side of the guidance envelope in Texas winter setups, so I’m not too fazed by this. If other models like the icon, gfs, and eventually nam warm up too, I’ll get worried. I’ve sided with the icon on surface temps for most of our winter weather threats since 2021 and I feel that for the most part it’s been the better global model for this, so that’s what I’m siding with for now. Of course, I’m open to counter-evidence.

Yes the Icon did very well in 2021. Even from long range if I remember.

[orangeblood]

12Z Ensemble mean snowfall, pretty remarkable theme coming together

EPS


GEFS


GEPS

[Harp.1]

12Z Ensemble mean snowfall, pretty remarkable theme coming together

EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736553600-3e8zpucl4Pc.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736672400-cfjxc2R5Wi0.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736672400-m6nglwMfGCk.png

Can you extend that map over to Louisiana so I can take a peek? Thanks