Texas Winter 2015-2016

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Progressive flow aloft resulting in rapid translation of upper level storm systems across SE TX.

Overall pattern since late December will continue with no overly cold air unleashing into the US and meager moisture return ahead of storm systems in the fast flow aloft. A weak cool front has crossed the area this morning, but cold air advection is very weak and the front will stall over the lower TX coast by early afternoon and begin to return northward this evening in response to the next upper level disturbance approaching from the NW. Moisture increases overnight, but best moisture will be confined to deep east TX and Louisiana on Thursday. This upper level system will deepen as it moves across the southern US and will likely become a major weather player along the US east coast late this week and this weekend. Expect some degree of shower development along and ahead of the frontal boundary on Thursday especially east of I-45 where moisture levels will be the greatest. Overall instability is lacking so expecting mostly showers with possibly an isolated thunderstorm.

As the storm system deepens to our east a strong cold front will move across the area with strong NW winds in the wake of the system. Good cold air advection and possible low level clouds on Friday will likely keep much of the area in the 40’s for highs.

Skies clear late Friday and winds weaken allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Low dewpoints point toward a light freeze over a large part of the region Saturday morning and the latest GFS forecast for IAH is showing a low of 30…so outlying rural locations could certainly fall into the upper 20’s. Continued cold on Saturday with highs only in the low to mid 50’s under full sun.

Next storm system moves in quickly from the west late Sunday into Monday with rapid return of onshore flow on Sunday and a good warm up well into the 60’s. Rain chances return on Monday, but again moisture is looking slim and mainly focused toward areas east of TX.

[Lagreeneyes03]

My brother lives and DC. He sent a text yesterday how they were expecting 1-2 feet of snow this weekend, and if we wanted to come visit. I may say yes at this point.

Get a plane ticket right now! This may be the snow storm of your life. Don't miss it. Guidance still indicates 20-25 inches of snow starting during the day on Friday. By Friday evening, the airports may be shutting down. Plan to stay a few extra days, though, as the airlines will be really backed up after this storm (for days).

If you get a ticket back, like Monda or Tuesday, you'll likely be paid to volunteer to give up your seat on your flight because the flights will be overbooked, etc. You can do it time and time again. You could come out with 1000's in gift cards for whatever airline and more than pay for your trip! (Former Airline employee here) It may be worth your while!

[weatherdude1108]

My brother lives and DC. He sent a text yesterday how they were expecting 1-2 feet of snow this weekend, and if we wanted to come visit. I may say yes at this point.

Get a plane ticket right now! This may be the snow storm of your life. Don't miss it. Guidance still indicates 20-25 inches of snow starting during the day on Friday. By Friday evening, the airports may be shutting down. Plan to stay a few extra days, though, as the airlines will be really backed up after this storm (for days).

Yeah, 1-2 feet is fun if you don't have to travel (based on my childhood experience). If we didn't have work and school, I could spend a week there frolicking, taking pics, and building snowpersons. We are planning a trip during the Summer. By that time, they should have a nice heat wave going on.

[Ralph's Weather]

Which runs have y'all seen showing fun for tomorrow? I had taken a break from model watching so guess I missed it.
Right now guess we have to take what we can get and put our hope in two slight chances in tomorrow and Tuesday. The real fun should start in mid Feb for us in Texas.

[wxman57]

Yeah, 1-2 feet is fun if you don't have to travel (based on my childhood experience). If we didn't have work and school, I could spend a week there frolicking, taking pics, and building snowpersons. We are planning a trip during the Summer. By that time, they should have a nice heat wave going on.

Snowpersons?

[gboudx]

Snowpersons?

In Cajun speak, it would be Sneauxyamommaanddems.

[Portastorm]

Hey wxman57, remember the other day when I was trying to tell you that the Euro has not been "all that and a bag of chips" as of late and you told me I was off my Grey Goose rocker? Well, it appears the NWS Extended Forecast Desk in DC would agree more with me and my buddy in Del Rio, hriverajr. Props to srainhoutx who pointed this out this morning on the KHOU board. Here is the relevant snippet:

...CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS.

[lrak]

Yeah, 1-2 feet is fun if you don't have to travel (based on my childhood experience). If we didn't have work and school, I could spend a week there frolicking, taking pics, and building snowpersons. We are planning a trip during the Summer. By that time, they should have a nice heat wave going on.

Snowpersons?

I think that is how you say it do to political correctness Saying Snowman is not cool bro

[Ralph's Weather]

Hey wxman57, remember the other day when I was trying to tell you that the Euro has not been "all that and a bag of chips" as of late and you told me I was off my Grey Goose rocker? Well, it appears the NWS Extended Forecast Desk in DC would agree more with me and my buddy in Del Rio, hriverajr. Props to srainhoutx who pointed this out this morning on the KHOU board. Here is the relevant snippet:

...CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS.

Here recently the GFS has been somewhat consistent while the Euro has been all over the place. As I have noted in previous posts the GFS pretty much nailed our system last weekend and it seems to be nailing the Nor'Easter.

[wxman57]

Yeah, 1-2 feet is fun if you don't have to travel (based on my childhood experience). If we didn't have work and school, I could spend a week there frolicking, taking pics, and building snowpersons. We are planning a trip during the Summer. By that time, they should have a nice heat wave going on.

Snowpersons?

I think that is how you say it do to political correctness Saying Snowman is not cool bro

Who makes a snowwoman? I've always been very anti-PC.

Anyway, this would not be a storm to miss if you have the opportunity to travel to DC and experience it.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57, remember the other day when I was trying to tell you that the Euro has not been "all that and a bag of chips" as of late and you told me I was off my Grey Goose rocker? Well, it appears the NWS Extended Forecast Desk in DC would agree more with me and my buddy in Del Rio, hriverajr. Props to srainhoutx who pointed this out this morning on the KHOU board. ...snip

I don't think those were my exact words, Portastorm, but that doesn't mean you aren't off your Grey Goose rocker.

I was speaking only to the snow potential in north/northeast Texas. The GFS has performed terribly, forecasting many snow storms for Dallas/Ft. Worth that never materialized. The EC, on the other hand, generally predicted the snow to remain north of that area.

[Portastorm]

We both know it's true (that I am off my rocker).

And yes, there was an element of "spin" to my post. At the end of the day I also would pick King Euro over the GFS, especially when it shows snow in my part of the state. For now we all will have to live vicariously through the lens of East Coast folks.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tomorrow evening will be a close call with the moisture leaving just before a change over to snow. Depend the trough a tad or have the surface low hang a tad further west and NE TX could sneak something in though surface temps will likely be too warm for any accumulations if we do manage a flurry.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Finally, a few inches of snow for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area next Tuesday. Only 6-7 days out. Is the GFS just taunting you Metroplexers again? Euro says yes...

Oh, and forget tomorrow night.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_30.png

Looks like we are in that little 25" spot in Western NC. However, with mountains, it will vary greatly.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

We both know it's true (that I am off my rocker).

And yes, there was an element of "spin" to my post. At the end of the day I also would pick King Euro over the GFS, especially when it shows snow in my part of the state. For now we all will have to live vicariously through the lens of East Coast folks.

Well, he is a Browns fan. Yep, we get to see it all happening LIVE on the Weather Channel..

[Ntxw]

Would be a great time to visit DC. You know its big when all the weather balloons from Texas to the east coast are being asked to send special soundings today to help guidance.

[wxman57]

Not much to see in the 12Z GFS. Just a little snow for the Hill Country (not far from Austin) next Tuesday. Believe it at your own risk...

[Brent]

This storm coming up is reminding me I really live in the wrong part of the country...

[TheProfessor]

This storm coming up is reminding me I really live in the wrong part of the country...

I thought I moved to the right area but apparently Ohio gets missed from every direction when the bigger storms occur.

[Ntxw]

This storm coming up is reminding me I really live in the wrong part of the country...

I thought I moved to the right area but apparently Ohio gets missed from every direction when the bigger storms occur.

Euro isnt much for Texas or Ohio with this system. Next.