Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Portastorm]

Here's the thing ... we all know that the NAM is very cold with timing and temps on shallow Arctic air. But as y'all have so accurately pointed out in posts before this one, this is not a shallow Arctic airmass. It is fairly deep vertically so perhaps none of the models are handling the timing and intensity as well as we would hope. Just a thought.

For now we're looking at fropa here in Austin around 12 noon-2 pm Thursday. Won't surprise me if it is earlier than that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Such a bummer to have this cold air for a few days with zero precip. After this weekend, looks to warm up quite a bit. Looks to be quite warm for Texas through the 3rd week of Jan (end of run), based off of the CFS this morning. Looks like the middle of the month might bring some colder weather to parts of the southeast but a warm Texas.

I put little stock in the CFS. Before November they advertised a very warm November. During the November cold spell they advertised a very warm December.

With a -AO and not much of a warm up on the horizon (might be 5-10 above for 3 days), I’m not really seeing anything other than a seasonal first 2-3 weeks of January followed by another cold spell.

[Ntxw]

Here's the thing ... we all know that the NAM is very cold with timing and temps on shallow Arctic air. But as y'all have so accurately pointed out in posts before this one, this is not a shallow Arctic airmass. It is fairly deep vertically so perhaps none of the models are handling the timing and intensity as well as we would hope. Just a thought.

For now we're looking at fropa here in Austin around 12 noon-2 pm Thursday. Won't surprise me if it is earlier than that.

It's definitely not shallow but that doesn't mean it isn't heavy and dense at the surface either and can still slide quite easily against 500mb flow! With the underestimate in the early cold wave up north, you'd have to believe the next surge will likely outrun.

[Iceresistance]

Here's the thing ... we all know that the NAM is very cold with timing and temps on shallow Arctic air. But as y'all have so accurately pointed out in posts before this one, this is not a shallow Arctic airmass. It is fairly deep vertically so perhaps none of the models are handling the timing and intensity as well as we would hope. Just a thought.

For now we're looking at fropa here in Austin around 12 noon-2 pm Thursday. Won't surprise me if it is earlier than that.

It's definitely not shallow but that doesn't mean it isn't heavy and dense at the surface either and can still slide quite easily against 500mb flow! With the underestimate in the early cold wave up north, you'd have to believe the next surge will likely outrun.

It's already near freezing at my location, and dropping down even colder

This could have serious implications for this upcoming storm system, but how much remains to be seen.

[Ntxw]

Here's the thing ... we all know that the NAM is very cold with timing and temps on shallow Arctic air. But as y'all have so accurately pointed out in posts before this one, this is not a shallow Arctic airmass. It is fairly deep vertically so perhaps none of the models are handling the timing and intensity as well as we would hope. Just a thought.

For now we're looking at fropa here in Austin around 12 noon-2 pm Thursday. Won't surprise me if it is earlier than that.

It's definitely not shallow but that doesn't mean it isn't heavy and dense at the surface either and can still slide quite easily against 500mb flow! With the underestimate in the early cold wave up north, you'd have to believe the next surge will likely outrun.

It's already near freezing at my location, and dropping down even colder

I was noting the other day models had extreme gradient like 50s in Dallas and 20s in Fort Worth. Well it can't be 50s in Dallas if the short range guidance now starts out in the 30s.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS and GEFS are delayed

[lrak]

Most of the time in CCTX with cold air like this we always get some moisture along the coast. What's the difference with this cold blast? I keep reading that it's not shallow. Like the JFK causeway will have some ice? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

Most of the time in CCTX with cold air like this we always get some moisture along the coast. What's the difference with this cold blast? I keep reading that it's not shallow. Like the JFK causeway will have some ice? Thanks.

Cold air generally is dry air. A shallow surface cold air mass allows warm, moist air above it thus the shallow nature. In very deep cold air you need strong vorticity (lift) to squeeze out whatever moisture is there, even if limited.

[lrak]

Most of the time in CCTX with cold air like this we always get some moisture along the coast. What's the difference with this cold blast? I keep reading that it's not shallow. Like the JFK causeway will have some ice? Thanks.

Cold air generally is dry air. A shallow surface cold air mass allows warm, moist above it thus the shallow nature. In very deep cold air you need strong vorticity (lift) to squeeze out whatever moisture is there, even if limited.

Ok thanks Ntwx, so no overrunning possibilities, with this setup, correct?

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is only at +18 Hours, but there is already a slight shift to the west.

[Ntxw]

Most of the time in CCTX with cold air like this we always get some moisture along the coast. What's the difference with this cold blast? I keep reading that it's not shallow. Like the JFK causeway will have some ice? Thanks.

Cold air generally is dry air. A shallow surface cold air mass allows warm, moist above it thus the shallow nature. In very deep cold air you need strong vorticity (lift) to squeeze out whatever moisture is there, even if limited.

Ok thanks Ntwx, so no overrunning possibilities, with this setup, correct?

It's less likely. Would need upper level vorticity at 5h to overperform.

[opticsguy]

Now THIS is a temperature inversion



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... de=regular

[Ntxw]

Looks like maybe some novelty snow/flurries on GFS for NW TX, NTX, and southern Oklahoma in certain areas overnight Friday into Christmas Eve. Been sporadic on runs though.

[Gotwood]

None of the models make sense as it pertains to the cold. It’s like they just stop having it get cold once it hits north Texas and then it spills amazingly sharp to the East. I would bet on the temps in Texas being 5-10 degrees colder than what they are saying.

[orangeblood]

Looks like maybe some novelty snow/flurries on GFS for NW TX, NTX, and southern Oklahoma in certain areas overnight Friday into Christmas Eve. Been sporadic on runs though.

800 mb and up looks fairly saturated during that time but below that is bone dry...tough to overcome without a more vigorous shortwave

[Iceresistance]

31°F outside

[Ntxw]

Looks like maybe some novelty snow/flurries on GFS for NW TX, NTX, and southern Oklahoma in certain areas overnight Friday into Christmas Eve. Been sporadic on runs though.

800 mb and up looks fairly saturated during that time but below that is bone dry...tough to overcome without a more vigorous shortwave

There is another shortwave/trough in the 500mb flow early next week on the guidance. Will have warmed some by then but a quick shot of colder air. Only the CMC digs this far enough west for any interest so far.

[Ntxw]

31°F outside

Quite chilly behind the front. Another challenge to look for is how much the rebound today and tomorrow before the height rises with the next big front. Upper flow says quite a bit of rebound on the globals.

[Iceresistance]

31°F outside

Quite chilly behind the front. Another challenge to look for is how much the rebound today and tomorrow before the height rises with the next big front. Upper flow says quite a bit of rebound on the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/auO6iRZ.png

It's also completely cloud-covered outside. Parts of the panhandle that got the sunlight are above freezing.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/current.TAIR.grad.png

[Edwards Limestone]

At this point, I'd be just fine if global models were on to something and temps were a bit more moderate than expected a few days ago. As a homeowner, I don't want Feb 2021 repeat anytime soon (or ever).

At least it won't be 80 on Christmas this year.