Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2461 Postby Gotwood » Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:08 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:At this point, I'd be just fine if global models were on to something and temps were a bit more moderate than expected a few days ago. As a homeowner, I don't want Feb 2021 repeat anytime soon (or ever).

At least it won't be 80 on Christmas this year.

Yeah without snow it’s kinda pointless.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2462 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:16 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:At this point, I'd be just fine if global models were on to something and temps were a bit more moderate than expected a few days ago. As a homeowner, I don't want Feb 2021 repeat anytime soon (or ever).

At least it won't be 80 on Christmas this year.

Yeah without snow it’s kinda pointless.


Yeah, being a homeowner changed my perspective on freezes/storms of Feb. 2021 magnitude/duration. I don't care to repeat that any time soon/ever either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2463 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:19 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:At this point, I'd be just fine if global models were on to something and temps were a bit more moderate than expected a few days ago. As a homeowner, I don't want Feb 2021 repeat anytime soon (or ever).

At least it won't be 80 on Christmas this year.

Yeah without snow it’s kinda pointless.


Yeah, being a homeowner changed my perspective on freezes/storms of Feb. 2021 magnitude/duration. I don't care to repeat that any time soon/ever either.


I mean I don't even own but like I'm not even excited about the cold really now especially since the snow looks to be minimal up here barring a surprise. There's nothing fun about -20 wind chills to me
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2464 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:37 pm

I don't think that my area is going to be at 42°F unless the clouds fall apart.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2465 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:02 pm

Could almost hear a pin drop in here today. Kinda sad compared to the hype a week ago. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2466 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:03 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:Could almost hear a pin drop in here today. Kinda sad compared to a week ago. :double:


Well we got what we wanted a cold run up to Christmas. Was hopeful it would come with some snow chances but that's turning out not the case. Day after tomorrow once there's a big front to track and big HP there will be more to post about. Will enjoy the fireplace!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2467 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:08 pm

Looks like a brief very cold (and dry) period with a big warm-up next week and beyond. Lots of above normal temps. If anything, models are a little less cold for Houston now. More models indicating a high above freezing Friday. No big snow storm along I-10 as Joe B was hinting at.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2468 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:08 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2469 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Could almost hear a pin drop in here today. Kinda sad compared to a week ago. :double:


Well we got what we wanted a cold run up to Christmas. Was hopeful it would come with some snow chances but that's turning out not the case. Day after tomorrow once there's a big front to track and big HP there will be more to post about. Will enjoy the fireplace!

Only thing better than cold and snow is cold. Especially at Christmas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2470 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:20 pm

I've been below freezing for at least 2 hours now.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2471 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:25 pm

https://youtu.be/S58xllXV81I

First time I've seem him, thoughts?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2472 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:36 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:[youtube]https://youtu.be/S58xllXV81I[/youtube]

First time I've seem him, thoughts?

Ryan Hall Y'all liked to overhype things, he does admit that snow makes him go crazy.

His forecasts is usually on the bullish side, but is incredible when he Livestreams.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2473 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a brief very cold (and dry) period with a big warm-up next week and beyond. Lots of above normal temps. If anything, models are a little less cold for Houston now. More models indicating a high above freezing Friday. No big snow storm along I-10 as Joe B was hinting at.


Kudos to you- absolutely nailed this over a week ago. I bought into the model/social media hype.

One thing we can all agree on, is that we need more moisture for the latter half of winter and spring. Despite some recent rains, it's still too dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2474 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:41 pm

My grandmother just got a call from my Great-Grandparents, they don't want us there for the Christmas party right now because of this storm system that is coming.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2475 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:My grandmother just got a call from my Great-Grandparents, they don't want us there for the Christmas party right now because of this storm system that is coming.


That seems a bit premature. They have snowplows up there and roads will be clear for the weekend.

But, better safe than sorry.

My brother spun out on a bridge in Kansas City one year right before the holiday. Only a miracle none of them were hurt. It’s scary.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2476 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:50 pm

PNA ruined any chance of getting significant moisture and lift to coincide with this historic Arctic Front (shunted Northeast). Also, EPO didn't last long enough or drop enough to get any sustained cold either. Bummer, nothing beats winter weather leading up to and around the Holidays!

Oh well, now onto January for Winter Weather hunting!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2477 Postby WinterMax » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:51 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a brief very cold (and dry) period with a big warm-up next week and beyond. Lots of above normal temps. If anything, models are a little less cold for Houston now. More models indicating a high above freezing Friday. No big snow storm along I-10 as Joe B was hinting at.


Kudos to you- absolutely nailed this over a week ago. I bought into the model/social media hype.

One thing we can all agree on, is that we need more moisture for the latter half of winter and spring. Despite some recent rains, it's still too dry.


Haha, I wouldn’t say he nailed it, he said Houston would be in the 70s and 80s for Christmas, that may have been more wishful thinking than forecasting but wxman57 sort of swung and missed on this 1.

On the other hand, there were several people on this forum who nailed this arctic outbreak long before the 1st hint of it hit the models. Credit to them.

I also believe the model forecasting has gotten much better over the last few years. While it took them a while to pinpoint it, that day, Thursday has been the target day for well over a week. Not too bad.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2478 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:55 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a brief very cold (and dry) period with a big warm-up next week and beyond. Lots of above normal temps. If anything, models are a little less cold for Houston now. More models indicating a high above freezing Friday. No big snow storm along I-10 as Joe B was hinting at.


Kudos to you- absolutely nailed this over a week ago. I bought into the model/social media hype.

One thing we can all agree on, is that we need more moisture for the latter half of winter and spring. Despite some recent rains, it's still too dry.


Ah, lets give him 1/2 credit :wink: ...he got the no storm right but was in deep denial about the cold until just a few days ago. This extreme cold was nailed by many on this forum from 2 weeks plus out, impressive!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2479 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:04 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:My grandmother just got a call from my Great-Grandparents, they don't want us there for the Christmas party right now because of this storm system that is coming.


That seems a bit premature. They have snowplows up there and roads will be clear for the weekend.

But, better safe than sorry.

My brother spun out on a bridge in Kansas City one year right before the holiday. Only a miracle none of them were hurt. It’s scary.

They are mostly worried that the snow will refreeze as Ice at night when the snow melts during the day.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2480 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:31 pm

It looks like that the PV will stabilize before 2023, this will allow the Arctic Circle and the North Pole to get really cold and recover. This could allow our cold source region to recover, reload, and launch again around Late January and into February.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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