Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

SOI index rapidly increasing, several days in a row with +20.

[Edwards Limestone]

SOI index rapidly increasing, several days in a row with +20.

Never ending La Nina

[Ntxw]

SOI index rapidly increasing, several days in a row with +20.

With some lag that's a good signal for +EPO after Christmas period.

[Iceresistance]

SOI index rapidly increasing, several days in a row with +20.

With some lag that's a good signal for +EPO after Christmas period.

Yep, this may allow our source region to get colder again.

[Ntxw]

SOI index rapidly increasing, several days in a row with +20.

With some lag that's a good signal for +EPO after Christmas period.

Yep, this may allow our source region to get colder again.

+EPO is warm loading pattern.

[Iceresistance]

With some lag that's a good signal for +EPO after Christmas period.

Yep, this may allow our source region to get colder again.

+EPO is warm loading pattern.

Nevermind on that part for loading in the cold.

The EPO will likely turn towards negative come mid to late January and into February. This +EPO will get Alaska cold and snowy.

[orangeblood]

Siberia and North America torch periods!!

[Ntxw]

Siberia and North America torch periods!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1671537600/1672812000-BNLWlm2O4lk.png

I think this largely holds true through 1st to maybe part of week 2 of Jan. But pattern retrogression of the -NAO -> -AO -> -EPO pattern will return past that period. EPS long range favors this and is the idea since some time ago. We should see another Arctic attack past Jan 15th roughly around the same period as now and November.

[orangeblood]

Siberia and North America torch periods!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1671537600/1672812000-BNLWlm2O4lk.png

I think this largely holds true through 1st to maybe part of week 2 of Jan. But pattern retrogression of the -NAO -> -AO -> -EPO pattern will return past that period. EPS long range favors this and is the idea since some time ago. We should see another Arctic attack past Jan 15th roughly around the same period as now and November.

Well maybe next time around we can get another 5.5 Standard Deviation Ridge over Alaska instead of Northern Siberia. The current Siberian ridge is incredible, just not quite right for the southern plains

The only consistent Ridge in this pattern is over Baffin Bay

[wxman57]

Looks like a brief very cold (and dry) period with a big warm-up next week and beyond. Lots of above normal temps. If anything, models are a little less cold for Houston now. More models indicating a high above freezing Friday. No big snow storm along I-10 as Joe B was hinting at.

Kudos to you- absolutely nailed this over a week ago. I bought into the model/social media hype.

One thing we can all agree on, is that we need more moisture for the latter half of winter and spring. Despite some recent rains, it's still too dry.

Ah, lets give him 1/2 credit ...he got the no storm right but was in deep denial about the cold until just a few days ago. This extreme cold was nailed by many on this forum from 2 weeks plus out, impressive!

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

[Ntxw]

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

[Ntxw]

And if you're still doubting it will get cold. Much of TX is now under wind chill watches. Of course NWS FW and one of the slower ones but suspect that will come too.

 https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/1605263833098227714

[orangeblood]

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

Personally still put the Feb 14th 2021 frontal passage with wind driven snow at the top but this one should be a close second. The temp drop will be more drastic with this one but the bitter cold along with blizzard conditions in 2021 was one of a kind!

[Brent]

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

0 degrees in the middle of the afternoon here the NWS isn't quite that cold but either way stuff is gonna be written about this front years from now

[orangeblood]

NAM picking up on some light snow with the Frontal Passage across North Texas on Thursday. Then Friday night radar echos showing up but big ? mark is will it reach the ground ??

[EnnisTx]

NAM picking up on some light snow with the Frontal Passage across North Texas on Thursday. Then Friday night radar echos showing up but big ? mark is will it reach the ground ??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/refc/1671559200/1671850800-jtwotFPBXK0.png

NWS FW:
Thursday A chance of sprinkles before 10am, then a chance of sprinkles and flurries between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of flurries after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northwest 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night A chance of flurries before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

[orangeblood]

RGEM apparent temps are mind blowing Friday morning!

[Ntxw]

NAM picking up on some light snow with the Frontal Passage across North Texas on Thursday. Then Friday night radar echos showing up but big ? mark is will it reach the ground ??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/refc/1671559200/1671850800-jtwotFPBXK0.png

NWS FW:
Thursday A chance of sprinkles before 10am, then a chance of sprinkles and flurries between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of flurries after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northwest 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night A chance of flurries before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Icon has a little more vigorous shortwave fri night. Would not need much moisture to squeeze some out of the brutal cold. Need it to make it to the ground.

[Cerlin]

I’m not too worried about a brief new years warmup that’s being forecasted. Even with the warm temperature anomalies, for most of us that’s temperatures in the 50s instead of in the 30s-40s, and climatological trends are still very much in our favor after the first week of January.

[Texas Snow]

NAM picking up on some light snow with the Frontal Passage across North Texas on Thursday. Then Friday night radar echos showing up but big ? mark is will it reach the ground ??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/refc/1671559200/1671850800-jtwotFPBXK0.png

NWS FW:
Thursday A chance of sprinkles before 10am, then a chance of sprinkles and flurries between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of flurries after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 25 by 5pm. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northwest 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night A chance of flurries before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

That seems to be the late morning update. The 3PM update removes mentions in DFW as far as I can tell (but hope I am wrong)