Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is uptrending for Texas, I got this image from another forum and wanted to share it here


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXIpY.gif

[txtwister78]

A good chunk of this across Central Texas falls Wednesday.

[orangeblood]

This is a complicated 500 mb setup, and the Euro is superior to the GFS in that arena. I'm hugging the Euro.

No doubt, GFS is a wild ride from now until about 48 hrs out. It happens without fail ever big winter weather event we’ve had!

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen!!

[txtwister78]

The irony is we're getting perhaps a piece of energy from the developing main low to possibly come out faster and potentially bring some snow further south across CTX and the HC and then from there as you wait for the main system to come out, it's really a race against time because 18z while a few degrees colder also warms dew points faster with all the moisture overtaking the state out of the SW and so it's nowhere near as bullish across DFW as the Euro is. Still some things to sort out as we have another time period to watch Wednesday afternoon into evening via the models.

[HockeyTx82]

GFS trend last 6 runs, less wintry precip for Texas:

https://i.postimg.cc/SKd1T6QG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh126-trend.gif

https://youtu.be/fX4e81L-J7s?feature=shared

[JayDT]

This is a complicated 500 mb setup, and the Euro is superior to the GFS in that arena. I'm hugging the Euro.

No doubt, GFS is a wild ride from now until about 48 hrs out. It happens without fail ever big winter weather event we’ve had!

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen!!

Never a dull moment with the GFS… And the rollercoaster continues!

[Gotwood]

Cloud cover going to play a huge role this week with temps.

[gpsnowman]

Cloud cover going to play a huge role this week with temps.

Was looking at the NWS forecast earlier and thought the same thing. They have cloudy low 40s after starting out in the low/mid 20s. If it's cloudy I doubt we get that high with a north wind.

[cheezyWXguy]

The irony is we're getting perhaps a piece of energy from the developing main low to possibly come out faster and potentially bring some snow further south across CTX and the HC and then from there as you wait for the main system to come out, it's really a race against time because 18z while a few degrees colder also warms dew points faster with all the moisture overtaking the state out of the SW and so it's nowhere near as bullish across DFW as the Euro is. Still some things to sort out as we have another time period to watch Wednesday afternoon into evening via the models.

In addition to this, I’ve noticed that the last couple runs of the gfs have a secondary lobe at 500mb that revolves around the back side of our system as it starts to kick out towards us. I don’t know the ins and outs of why this results in a less favorable outcome, but I do notice that the runs that show this do result in lower accumulations or a greater coverage of cold rain, while the runs that show a weaker or nonexistent secondary lobe do not. I also can see that the gfs is on its own at this time with this development, and the cmc, icon, and euro don’t show it, and all give ntx a more favorable outcome. I guess this is something to watch.

[orangeblood]

Cloud cover going to play a huge role this week with temps.

Monday and Tuesday clear skies according to the NAM. Clouds don’t starting rolling in until Tuesday night

[gpsnowman]

Cloud cover going to play a huge role this week with temps.

Monday and Tuesday clear skies according to the NAM. Clouds don’t starting rolling in until Tuesday night

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/total_cloud/1736013600/1736272800-FJexyfD4QGA.png

Don't think I have ever seen a cloud cover map like that. Underated map.

[orangeblood]

18Z GEFS coming in much more aggressive with the storm system, now has over 1/2 of its members with a significant winter weather event this week across a big portion of Texas. Almost doubled up from 12Z

[Brent]

If this storm up here in Kansas City is any indication saying could be 2-3 inch an hour rates tomorrow afternoon

[Ntxw]

18Z GEFS coming in much more aggressive with the storm system, now has over 1/2 of its members with a significant winter weather event this week across a big portion of Texas. Almost doubled up from 12Z

0z and 12z will ever be more important going forward given the sampling data that will go into them. Basically forget sleep the next week.

[Ntxw]

Blizzard warnings for northeastern/eastern Kansas and just north of Kansas City. Quite a show up there.

[Iceresistance]

Blizzard warnings for northeastern/eastern Kansas and just north of Kansas City. Quite a show up there.

The Blizzard Warnings also include Southern Nebraska

[Ntxw]

Always fun to look at the pieces. The swirls in the Aleutians is part of the big Aleutian trough that will break differences pieces and create our system in question.

[wxman22]

18Z Euro

[Ntxw]

The irony is we're getting perhaps a piece of energy from the developing main low to possibly come out faster and potentially bring some snow further south across CTX and the HC and then from there as you wait for the main system to come out, it's really a race against time because 18z while a few degrees colder also warms dew points faster with all the moisture overtaking the state out of the SW and so it's nowhere near as bullish across DFW as the Euro is. Still some things to sort out as we have another time period to watch Wednesday afternoon into evening via the models.

In addition to this, I’ve noticed that the last couple runs of the gfs have a secondary lobe at 500mb that revolves around the back side of our system as it starts to kick out towards us. I don’t know the ins and outs of why this results in a less favorable outcome, but I do notice that the runs that show this do result in lower accumulations or a greater coverage of cold rain, while the runs that show a weaker or nonexistent secondary lobe do not. I also can see that the gfs is on its own at this time with this development, and the cmc, icon, and euro don’t show it, and all give ntx a more favorable outcome. I guess this is something to watch.

Just have to remember that come moisture is warm air, there is a direct correlation. The more amped up the system the more the SE warm sector will push. This amped system is part of the cold air erosion process. The deep south TX and SE TX into the gulf coast snow/ice were weaker, less amped runs. The biggest change the past 5 days is how this thing comes out. Phase, cutoff, whatever we want to call it, it's all about the amplification of the jet stream.

[HockeyTx82]

How is the cold front looking coming in tonight? Faster and or colder than originally forecast?