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Cpv17 wrote:The GFS has officially lost its mind. All I gotta say.
WinterMax wrote:Wonder where the GFS is finding all of that moisture, they are far and away the outlier. They should begin to cave toward the European and Canadian.
Ralph's Weather wrote:6Z GFS still has the weekend storm. All models have the big trough and the cmc even has the SW lobe over NM. The GFS holds the Great Lakes temporary ridge just long enough for the storm to amplify over Texas though. If that happens we could see a widespread 6" show event, but it could very easily morph into a quick hitter that may not drop any show if the GL ridge shifts east too quickly.
The late week system bears watching also but models are not showing a winter storm with that one at this time. Overall we are in a very active pattern with winter weather possible once or twice a week for several weeks ahead.
orangeblood wrote:
This should be D day for model trends, we’re starting to get in the 5 day window time frame for convergence….biggest indicator IMO is the GFS is the only operational model that has decent support from its ensembles. The Euro and CMC do not
wxman57 wrote:The upper-level flow in the 6Z GFS run just doesn't look "right" for the cold it has at the surface near the end of the month. There is cross-Polar flow, but it's flowing from Canada INTO Siberia, not the other way around. Looks fishy, to me. I'd tend to believe the 00Z surface forecast vs. the extreme cold of the 06Z. Also, the GFS has the cold coming from Saskatchewan with above-normal temps in British Colombia & Alaska. Odd place for the origin of the cold air.
Ntxw wrote:wxman57 wrote:The upper-level flow in the 6Z GFS run just doesn't look "right" for the cold it has at the surface near the end of the month. There is cross-Polar flow, but it's flowing from Canada INTO Siberia, not the other way around. Looks fishy, to me. I'd tend to believe the 00Z surface forecast vs. the extreme cold of the 06Z. Also, the GFS has the cold coming from Saskatchewan with above-normal temps in British Colombia & Alaska. Odd place for the origin of the cold air.
Pretty wild ens and gfs saw this week's cold snap 300+ hours out.
Just a note to everyone if you can, even if crazy, post long range images of runs snow, ice, heat, 500mb. Any maps will help when looking back to compare what transpired vs what was shown. It will be helpful when we look for model tendencies.
Finding model archives of older runs beyond a certain period can be tough.
Ntxw wrote:wxman57 wrote:The upper-level flow in the 6Z GFS run just doesn't look "right" for the cold it has at the surface near the end of the month. There is cross-Polar flow, but it's flowing from Canada INTO Siberia, not the other way around. Looks fishy, to me. I'd tend to believe the 00Z surface forecast vs. the extreme cold of the 06Z. Also, the GFS has the cold coming from Saskatchewan with above-normal temps in British Colombia & Alaska. Odd place for the origin of the cold air.
Pretty wild ens and gfs saw this week's cold snap 300+ hours out.
Just a note to everyone if you can, even if crazy, post long range images of runs snow, ice, heat, 500mb. Any maps will help when looking back to compare what transpired vs what was shown. It will be helpful when we look for model tendencies.
Finding model archives of older runs beyond a certain period can be tough.
When I find available time I may try to write a script to archive model data. Right now writing one to archive nws grid point forecasts. It's good practice but takes me a while as I have only been working in Python a few months.Ntxw wrote:wxman57 wrote:The upper-level flow in the 6Z GFS run just doesn't look "right" for the cold it has at the surface near the end of the month. There is cross-Polar flow, but it's flowing from Canada INTO Siberia, not the other way around. Looks fishy, to me. I'd tend to believe the 00Z surface forecast vs. the extreme cold of the 06Z. Also, the GFS has the cold coming from Saskatchewan with above-normal temps in British Colombia & Alaska. Odd place for the origin of the cold air.
Pretty wild ens and gfs saw this week's cold snap 300+ hours out.
Just a note to everyone if you can, even if crazy, post long range images of runs snow, ice, heat, 500mb. Any maps will help when looking back to compare what transpired vs what was shown. It will be helpful when we look for model tendencies.
Finding model archives of older runs beyond a certain period can be tough.
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