Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

Keep us posted on the euro please

[Stratton23]

That euro run is just pathetic, not even that cold of a run either, king euro? more like crap euro lol

[Harp.1]

That euro run is just pathetic, not even that cold of a run either, king euro? more like crap euro lol

Well, you answered my question!! Lol!!

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro, through 48hrs, maybe a little better overall orientation and digging a bit more into Cali.

Results in minor positive changes at the surface

12z 48hr QPF



vs

00z

[Ntxw]

Euro essentially is the warmest of the bunch. All the other guidance are colder. Will this be another episode of Euro post-analysis temperature failure during a cold blast?

[rwfromkansas]

Well that does have enough for road issues in DFW now if the Euro is right but obviously with other things wrong like temps hard to put much stock.

[869MB]

Euro essentially is the warmest of the bunch. All the other guidance are colder. Will this be another episode of Euro post-analysis temperature failure during a cold blast?

Yes

[Stratton23]

Euro has me near 60 when precip breaks out, oh how the mighty have fallen, another epic failure from the euro coming right up

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1745881226248913297

[Itryatgolf]

Euro has me near 60 when precip breaks out, oh how the mighty have fallen, another epic failure from the euro coming right up

Where you live to be near 60?

[Ralph's Weather]

Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

[Stratton23]

Itryatgolf even though I live in college station, im currently visting family in houston, euro mas mid 50’s lol, its actually sad how bad globals are with this

[Edwards Limestone]

NG going off today up 8%

[KeriCarter]

Super light snow flurries in Texarkana.

[Iceresistance]

Euro essentially is the warmest of the bunch. All the other guidance are colder. Will this be another episode of Euro post-analysis temperature failure during a cold blast?

I wonder if Heat Miser (AKA Wxman57) took control of the Euro model?

[cstrunk]

Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

Thanks for the optimism compared to nearly everyone else today, Ralph! I hope you're right.

[Iceresistance]

Our snow system is currently located west of Oregon and Washington state, I wonder what the system near Hawaii or near Alaska could change the outcome of the winter weather for this weekend and into next week.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0kan.png

[rwfromkansas]

Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

Nice analysis. That's why I love this forum and never go to any competing sites anymore. Lol.

[TropicalTundra]

Super light snow flurries in Texarkana.

Upper levels are already freezing?

I don't see why most precip over there wouldn't also be snow on Monday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks for the optimism compared to nearly everyone else today, Ralph! I hope you're right.

Most on the forum are near the big cities. This event is focused on our corner of the state. This still looks like a significant winter storm for East Texas.