Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Jackson NWS staff provides excellent analysis. Few, if any, will remember, but one met provided a detailed analysis of a scenario whereby Katrina made a Mississippi landfall probably two days before any of the models started swinging toward the actual landfall.
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georgia_tech_swagger
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT
WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE E US. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVG INTO THE NC MTNS FRI
AFTN-EVE. AT THE SAME TIME A GOOD SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NW
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL IMPACT THE S APPALACHIANS TO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE MTNS...THERE IS NO QUESTION PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MORE W COMPOMENT TO THE H85 WINDS...ESP
ON THE NAM AND GFS WHERE IT IS ALMOST DUE W AT TIMES RATHER THAN
NW...BUT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN ANY CASE. WILL REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME BUT NOT TOO MUCH SINCE THE STRONG VORT LOBE
COULD MAKE UP SOME OF THE LACK IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MOISTURE DOES
GET UP INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH REGION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FRI NIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS LASTING LONG. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY
IN MIND WILL NOT CONSIDER A WATCH ATTM BUT CHANCES ARE WE WILL NEED
A SNOW ADVSRY FRI NIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS WILL ADDRESS THAT. HIGHS
FRI-SAT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH M20 MTNS TO MID
30S LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THU...THE LATEST OP MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE
TIMING OF THE SRN STREAM S/W APPROACHING THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUN.
THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE SUN INTO TUE. THE 00Z GGEM
IS STILL SHOWING THE MILLER/B SOLN WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE A POSSIBLE OUTLIER.
IN ANY CASE...THE LATE WEEKEND INTO MON LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
THERMAL/MASS FIELDS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SUN OR EARLY
MON...WITH SOME -RA/IP MIX TO SET THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NON/MTNS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KCLT INDICATE A DEEP NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYER
DEVELOPING AROUND NOON WITH A DISTINCT DEFORMATION SIGNATURE AT
H85/H8. SO...THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR ANOTHER SIGNIF SNOW EVENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE
PATTERN TO SHIFT OR BECOME SUPPRESSED DEPENDING ON THE HEMISPHERIC
BLOCKING PATTERNS AND THE SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE PAC JET INTO
THE WRN CONUS...SO THE LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BE KEPT AS IS. AN EXTENDED NW FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO FOLLOW
THE SYNOPTIC EVENT AND SNOW COULD STILL BE FALLING THROUGH WED
ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES MON WILL FILTER VERY LOW THETA/E AIR
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIX INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXT PERIOD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...H5 LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT
WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE E US. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVG INTO THE NC MTNS FRI
AFTN-EVE. AT THE SAME TIME A GOOD SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NW
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL IMPACT THE S APPALACHIANS TO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE MTNS...THERE IS NO QUESTION PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MORE W COMPOMENT TO THE H85 WINDS...ESP
ON THE NAM AND GFS WHERE IT IS ALMOST DUE W AT TIMES RATHER THAN
NW...BUT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN ANY CASE. WILL REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME BUT NOT TOO MUCH SINCE THE STRONG VORT LOBE
COULD MAKE UP SOME OF THE LACK IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING. MOISTURE DOES
GET UP INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH REGION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FRI NIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS LASTING LONG. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY
IN MIND WILL NOT CONSIDER A WATCH ATTM BUT CHANCES ARE WE WILL NEED
A SNOW ADVSRY FRI NIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS WILL ADDRESS THAT. HIGHS
FRI-SAT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH M20 MTNS TO MID
30S LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THU...THE LATEST OP MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE
TIMING OF THE SRN STREAM S/W APPROACHING THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUN.
THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE SUN INTO TUE. THE 00Z GGEM
IS STILL SHOWING THE MILLER/B SOLN WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE A POSSIBLE OUTLIER.
IN ANY CASE...THE LATE WEEKEND INTO MON LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
THERMAL/MASS FIELDS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SUN OR EARLY
MON...WITH SOME -RA/IP MIX TO SET THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NON/MTNS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KCLT INDICATE A DEEP NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYER
DEVELOPING AROUND NOON WITH A DISTINCT DEFORMATION SIGNATURE AT
H85/H8. SO...THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR ANOTHER SIGNIF SNOW EVENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE
PATTERN TO SHIFT OR BECOME SUPPRESSED DEPENDING ON THE HEMISPHERIC
BLOCKING PATTERNS AND THE SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE PAC JET INTO
THE WRN CONUS...SO THE LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BE KEPT AS IS. AN EXTENDED NW FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO FOLLOW
THE SYNOPTIC EVENT AND SNOW COULD STILL BE FALLING THROUGH WED
ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN UPSLOPE REGIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES MON WILL FILTER VERY LOW THETA/E AIR
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIX INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXT PERIOD.
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Stormcenter
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CST THU JAN 6 2011
.SHORT TERM...
COOL DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED AGAIN BY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EVOLVE. THE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR
BROWNSVILLE THEN MOVE ENE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SAT NIGHT. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY KEEPING A BROAD AREA OF LIST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
BE THE DIVISION BETWEEN STRONG TS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TS TO THE NORTH. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK VERY CLOSE
TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH SUBJECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO STRONG OR SEVERE TS. SOME SMALL TRACK
CHANGES MAY OCCUR BUT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WHILE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS AHEAD
OF A QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVE TO THE BACK OF THE MAIN FRONT. THIS
MAY CAUSE ENOUGH LIFT CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD START MONDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MID WEEK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CST THU JAN 6 2011
.SHORT TERM...
COOL DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED AGAIN BY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EVOLVE. THE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR
BROWNSVILLE THEN MOVE ENE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SAT NIGHT. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY KEEPING A BROAD AREA OF LIST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ALSO
BE THE DIVISION BETWEEN STRONG TS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TS TO THE NORTH. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK VERY CLOSE
TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH SUBJECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO STRONG OR SEVERE TS. SOME SMALL TRACK
CHANGES MAY OCCUR BUT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WHILE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS AHEAD
OF A QUICKLY MOVING SHORT WAVE TO THE BACK OF THE MAIN FRONT. THIS
MAY CAUSE ENOUGH LIFT CAUSE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD START MONDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MID WEEK.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Thanks for the analysis and explanation. I've been lurking for several months now and have learned to pay attention to what is said here. I've already got my household prepared for a possible ice/snow event. 
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
*saves this image*
Be glad this is in fantasy land is all I'm gonna say...
Be glad this is in fantasy land is all I'm gonna say...
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#neversummer
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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Brent wrote:*saves this image*
Be glad this is in fantasy land is all I'm gonna say...
Yeah, that graphic Brent is my major worry in regards to the long range GFS. That run is way way out in time of course valid for 1/21/11. But, IF this verifies, virtually most of the nation will be in the ice box.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Back to the Monday storm...
*builds a snowman*
*builds a snowman*
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MississippiWx
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Looks like the 12z GFS trended a good bit colder with the Sunday/Monday system. Hopefully the European will follow suit and this will be the start of a cooler trend. As long as that low remains parked off the West Coast, it's going to keep pushing back its arrival time, which would help get the cold air in here before the main moisture arrives. Keep crossing your fingers!
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Euro is a big hit from NE TX across Southern AR, North and Central MS/AL/GA, SC, and Southern NC. Widespread 4-6 inches+. Mostly all snow.
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MississippiWx
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Brent wrote:Euro is a big hit from NE TX across Southern AR, North and Central MS/AL/GA, SC, and Southern NC. Widespread 4-6 inches+. Mostly all snow.
What about Southeast Mississippi? Does it look like we get any snow out of this? What about freezing rain/sleet? It looks like the EURO and GFS both have trended farther south with this low, thus a colder scenario on the 12z runs. However, the EURO does seem to be a little weaker with the low once it gets into the NE Gulf.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
I cannot wait to see where the snow line comes to in NC. According to the Weather Channel we are expected to be in ICE. I am about North of Charlotte. I am really hoping for the snow and not the ICE. 6 inches of snow would be great but ICE causes power outages. I'm really hoping to get a better grip on this becasuse snow only we just need extra food if ICE I need to get a kersene heater.
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Mr. Weather
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
MississippiWx wrote:Brent wrote:Euro is a big hit from NE TX across Southern AR, North and Central MS/AL/GA, SC, and Southern NC. Widespread 4-6 inches+. Mostly all snow.
What about Southeast Mississippi? Does it look like we get any snow out of this? What about freezing rain/sleet? It looks like the EURO and GFS both have trended farther south with this low, thus a colder scenario on the 12z runs. However, the EURO does seem to be a little weaker with the low once it gets into the NE Gulf.
what about Houston as well ???
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Stormcenter
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Please just remember it's the Weather Channel. 
sherry wrote:I cannot wait to see where the snow line comes to in NC. According to the Weather Channel we are expected to be in ICE. I am about North of Charlotte. I am really hoping for the snow and not the ICE. 6 inches of snow would be great but ICE causes power outages. I'm really hoping to get a better grip on this becasuse snow only we just need extra food if ICE I need to get a kersene heater.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
What does this mean for southwest Mississippi around mccomb, brookhaven and Natchez will we see snow from this or just some cold rain?
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Stormcenter
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Excerpt from the NWS Tallahassee,FL afternoon discussion.
Clouds should thicken quickly on Sunday as the shortwave and surface
low begin to progress eastward toward the region. Will introduce
probability of precipitation back into the forecast during the afternoon hours...with
highest rain chances over the western/northern zones where
isentropic upglide should be maximized. Still appears that the best
chances for steady rain will wait till Sunday night when the low
arrives near the Florida Panhandle coast. Warm frontal position under
this scenario would be along the coast. Even if this synoptic front
does make some movement inland with time...a secondary coastal front
associated with the cooler shelf waters should keep any surface
instability from pushing inland. Therefore not expecting a severe
threat for most of the area. Main concern with this system right now
looks to be up toward Dothan and Albany. Sunday afternoon and Sunday
evening...the arriving precipitation will be falling into a chilly/and
still dry airmass. GFS BUFKIT profiles for Dothan and Albany are
advertising a borderline freezing rain event as a result of
significant wet-bulbing of the low level profile. Did lowered the
mex temperatures over our northern areas for Sunday...however not quite
cold enough to add freezing rain chances to the grids. This
potential for a minor icing event will need to be monitored very
closely as the detail of this system become more clear.
Clouds should thicken quickly on Sunday as the shortwave and surface
low begin to progress eastward toward the region. Will introduce
probability of precipitation back into the forecast during the afternoon hours...with
highest rain chances over the western/northern zones where
isentropic upglide should be maximized. Still appears that the best
chances for steady rain will wait till Sunday night when the low
arrives near the Florida Panhandle coast. Warm frontal position under
this scenario would be along the coast. Even if this synoptic front
does make some movement inland with time...a secondary coastal front
associated with the cooler shelf waters should keep any surface
instability from pushing inland. Therefore not expecting a severe
threat for most of the area. Main concern with this system right now
looks to be up toward Dothan and Albany. Sunday afternoon and Sunday
evening...the arriving precipitation will be falling into a chilly/and
still dry airmass. GFS BUFKIT profiles for Dothan and Albany are
advertising a borderline freezing rain event as a result of
significant wet-bulbing of the low level profile. Did lowered the
mex temperatures over our northern areas for Sunday...however not quite
cold enough to add freezing rain chances to the grids. This
potential for a minor icing event will need to be monitored very
closely as the detail of this system become more clear.
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Mostly rain on the coast IMO. Maybe a stray sleet pellet or snowflake before it ends.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
...MAJOR WINTER STORM LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
REGARDING A WINTER SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT TO
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST SUNDAY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP COLD
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIXING
WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES NORTH. ANY SLEET THAT FALLS
INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW.
GIVEN THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND
ITS ABILITY TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...STRONG
DYNAMICS PRESENT WITHIN THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BANDS.
VERY EARLY ESTIMATES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
2 TO 5 INCH RANGE TOWARD THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDERS TO AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE...AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
DUE TO THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE CLEARING ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS DIFFICULT WITH THE SLUSH OR WET SNOW REFREEZING. DUE TO
THE INABILITY TO SUFFICIENTLY CLEAN ROADWAYS IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY WHEN COMPARED TO NORTHERN STATES...TRAVEL MAY REMAIN
DIFFICULT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD STAY UPDATED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND FUTURE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERCE AND SOCIETY.
$$
BORGHOFF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
...MAJOR WINTER STORM LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
REGARDING A WINTER SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT TO
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST SUNDAY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP COLD
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIXING
WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES NORTH. ANY SLEET THAT FALLS
INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW.
GIVEN THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND
ITS ABILITY TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...STRONG
DYNAMICS PRESENT WITHIN THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BANDS.
VERY EARLY ESTIMATES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
2 TO 5 INCH RANGE TOWARD THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDERS TO AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE...AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
DUE TO THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE CLEARING ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS DIFFICULT WITH THE SLUSH OR WET SNOW REFREEZING. DUE TO
THE INABILITY TO SUFFICIENTLY CLEAN ROADWAYS IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY WHEN COMPARED TO NORTHERN STATES...TRAVEL MAY REMAIN
DIFFICULT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD STAY UPDATED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND FUTURE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERCE AND SOCIETY.
$$
BORGHOFF
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38107
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
ALZ011>015-017>050-071100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE WINTER WEATHER IS A RARITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...THIS
WINTER HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT NORMAL. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM. SIMILAR TO THE WINTER WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS
WEEKEND...THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SURFACE LOW TO FORM
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A
VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS UNFOLDING EVENT...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX AND LISTEN TO
THE MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING OR READ THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
ALZ011>015-017>050-071100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011
...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE WINTER WEATHER IS A RARITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...THIS
WINTER HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT NORMAL. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM. SIMILAR TO THE WINTER WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS
WEEKEND...THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SURFACE LOW TO FORM
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A
VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS UNFOLDING EVENT...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX AND LISTEN TO
THE MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING OR READ THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
$$
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#neversummer
-
Mr. Weather
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 9:27 am
- Location: Houston Area
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