Texas Winter 2012-2013

[weatherdude1108]

My weather forecast icon down arrow is blinking on my weather station. Haven't seen that before. It is a storm warning indicator. Apparently it means the barometric pressure has decreased a specified amount (in this case, 0.15-inch Hg or greater) in the last six hours (in my own backyard).

Pretty cool! Yeah, I'm a geek at heart.

Bring on the RAIN! Preferably not severe.

[Ntxw]

Hi Res models looks very wet for a lot of Texas. This system looks very similar to the drought buster we had last January at the same time when north Texas saw widespread 4+ inches. SE Texas will be included this time, should be a long duration soaker. Though, severe weather shouldn't be too much of a widespread issue this is more overrunning and should be scattered to isolated limited to the coastal areas. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 6-8 inches totals.

[Comanche]

Lake Travis needs to get filled to the brim, just sayin....

[GaryHughes]

Hi Res models looks very wet for a lot of Texas. This system looks very similar to the drought buster we had last January at the same time when north Texas saw widespread 4+ inches. SE Texas will be included this time, should be a long duration soaker. Though, severe weather shouldn't be too much of a widespread issue this is more overrunning and should be scattered to isolated limited to the coastal areas. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 6-8 inches totals.

Very impressive rainfall map, we could use 6+ inches in North Texas.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville NWS Evening Discussion......Going to be an interesting day tomorrow..

EVERYTHING STILL ON TAP FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM IS JUST A
TAD QUICKER WITH A LEAD JET STREAK OF AROUND 40-45 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY WITH THE STRONGER 55KT JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HELICITY AT 0-1KM STILL HOVERING AROUND 350
M2/S2 WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG TOMORROW EVENING BUT SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE LEAD JET STREAK/DISTURBANCE SO A FEW
EARLY STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION. DAMAGING WINDS...A
FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORM UNDER THE EXPECTED INTENSE CONDITIONS. PEOPLE ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE URGED TO
STAY ALERT TO THE EXPECTED RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WEATHER CHANGES AND
TUNE IN TO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET OR KEEP YOUR NOAA
WEATHER ALERT RADIO NEARBY FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER
EVENT.

[gboudx]

From jeff tonight:

Significant heavy rainfall event increasingly likely on Tuesday-Wednesday with threat for flooding.

Flash Flood Watch in effect for all SE TX counties through Wednesday evening.

Factors continue to come together to support a prolonged period of excessive rainfall from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening. Coastal warm front will approach the coast on Tuesday morning and slow down as large scale lift arrives from the west yielding the formation of strong showers and thunderstorms along and north of this boundary. Upper level jet is forecast to split apart across the region favoring strong upper level divergence within a very moist air mass with moisture levels near the maximum values for early January. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will expand throughout the day across the region.

Warm front will attempt to progress inland Tuesday evening, but this is suspect as widespread rain north of the boundary may help lock it in place. Training heavy to excessive rainfall to continue along and north of the boundary. With moisture levels very high expect rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in the stronger storms.

On Wednesday the warm front may reach into our northern counties while a cool front slowly approaches from the west with a slow moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms may also continue to develop in the warm sector and train across the area.

Amounts:
Models are really hammering the area with 4-6 inches of rainfall, but differ on their placement with two models favoring the NW ½ of the region, one the southern ½ of the region and the other toward the LA/TX state line. The heaviest rainfall will occur along and north of the warm front and how long this front takes to move northward will determine the areas at greatest risk. If the boundary lingers near the coast for an extended period of time the heaviest rains will fall along the US 59 corridor. It is just nearly impossible to determine where the heaviest rainfall axis will reside until it has developed. It appears the best upper level divergence is aimed at our NW counties, but models may be too extensive with convection in this region especially if a large storm cluster develops closer to the coast and helps “rob” the inflowing moisture.

Will continue with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 5-7 inches. Short term rainfall rates will near or exceed 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance so some significant run-off is likely resulting in major rises on area watersheds. Street flooding and ponding is likely.

There could be some serious issues for the Wednesday morning commute depending on if the axis of heavy rainfall sets up over the urban areas Tuesday night.

Residents are urged to review their flood safety measures and remember to never drive into high water….Turn Around Don’t Drown!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really excited about the rain coming to north tx but does anyone know anything about the possible winter weather chances for north tx this weekend?

[Snowman67]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

[ROCK]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

that is interesting....and ominous....I was hoping to keep my tropical pool plants this year.

[Portastorm]

Really excited about the rain coming to north tx but does anyone know anything about the possible winter weather chances for north tx this weekend?

I would say minimal at best. The morning discussion out of NWSFO Fort Worth also says the same. However, the middle of next week is the period you need to be watching for if you're interested in winter weather. The Euro continues to suggest a classic pattern for a Texas winter weather event with an upper level low to our west and cold, Polar air moving south into the state and staying for a bit.

Meanwhile, those of us in south central Texas desperate for rain are ready to start dancing in the streets later today. Three to six inches of rain forecasted. Woot!!

Lake Travis is only 39% full at this time. Yes, we are desperate here.

[wxman57]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

Gave up trying to read the blue text on the blue background.From what I'm looking at, it's looking like the moisture is gone as the temps get cold enough for winter precip this weekend.

Sitting in a hotel room in cold, rainy Austin - not far from the Portastorm weather center. Will meet him for lunch tomorrow. I'm ready for some nice, warm sunshine. Been off the bike for 3 weeks with the cold and rain in Houston. Hope they get a bunch of rain here tomorrow. Don't need it in my neighborhood in Houston, but we'll probably get another 3-6 inches today/Wed.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

Gave up trying to read the blue text on the blue background.From what I'm looking at, it's looking like the moisture is gone as the temps get cold enough for winter precip this weekend.

Sitting in a hotel room in cold, rainy Austin - not far from the Portastorm weather center. Will meet him for lunch tomorrow. I'm ready for some nice, warm sunshine. Been off the bike for 3 weeks with the cold and rain in Houston. Hope they get a bunch of rain here tomorrow. Don't need it in my neighborhood in Houston, but we'll probably get another 3-6 inches today/Wed.

Your statement about not needing rain in your neighborhood while I still do in mine, which is about 10 miles from yours, shows two things that can sometimes confound forecasters(I think). In huge urban areas like Houston there tend to be several different micro-climates within the overall area that affect what happens, sometimes a lot more than one would expect. Also the Houston metro area, with over 5M population, spreads 75-100 miles E-W and about the same N-S. Often one side of the metro area will be having completely different weather. The Liberty area on the NE side of the metro area has, like your area, had more than enough rain and doesn't want/need anymore right now while areas like mine are still officially in drought.
So far with this system only 0.09" of rain, but much more to come if predictions are correct. Temp sitting at 50f.
Tell the S2K contingent in Austin hello from the rest of us.

[dhweather]

The massive metropolitan areas definitely alter their own climates. The "heat island" effect is a good example. It's cold enough for wintry weather all around the metroplex, and it will be wintry weather to the west, north and east of the city, but just a couple of degrees difference keeps Dallas relatively safe.

[orangeblood]

Major spike in temps at the 10 hPa level of the Stratosphere currently underway, reaching close to levels not seen in over 30 years for this time of year. It appears someone in the northern hemisphere is going to get one heck of a cold spell towards the end of this month into early February...where o where will this extreme cold end up ???

[CaptinCrunch]

In the last part of NWS FTW AFD they talk about possible winter precip towards the middle of next

THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS
SAT NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS OF COLD ADVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY
SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WHICH IS WHAT THE OTHER MODELS
WERE FORECASTING...HOWEVER THERE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE THAT WE
WILL CONTEND WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE.

[dhweather]

Russia typically seems to be "luckier" than the US when these type of events happen. There are signals that we might be the winner this time, but I'm not 100% sold on this happening just yet. There's a good chance of some normal cold weather events this winter, but for an epic event, like 1985, I'm going to wait until I see more data.

Since he's busy rubbing elbows with his peers, I'll channel my inner wxman57 again. If it's gonna be THAT cold, it BETTER snow!

[Snowman67]

Interesting read.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... y.html?m=1

Gave up trying to read the blue text on the blue background.From what I'm looking at, it's looking like the moisture is gone as the temps get cold enough for winter precip this weekend.

Sitting in a hotel room in cold, rainy Austin - not far from the Portastorm weather center. Will meet him for lunch tomorrow. I'm ready for some nice, warm sunshine. Been off the bike for 3 weeks with the cold and rain in Houston. Hope they get a bunch of rain here tomorrow. Don't need it in my neighborhood in Houston, but we'll probably get another 3-6 inches today/Wed.

Your statement about not needing rain in your neighborhood while I still do in mine, which is about 10 miles from yours, shows two things that can sometimes confound forecasters(I think). In huge urban areas like Houston there tend to be several different micro-climates within the overall area that affect what happens, sometimes a lot more than one would expect. Also the Houston metro area, with over 5M population, spreads 75-100 miles E-W and about the same N-S. Often one side of the metro area will be having completely different weather. The Liberty area on the NE side of the metro area has, like your area, had more than enough rain and doesn't want/need anymore right now while areas like mine are still officially in drought.
So far with this system only 0.09" of rain, but much more to come if predictions are correct. Temp sitting at 50f.
Tell the S2K contingent in Austin hello from the rest of us.

To your point- we've already recorded an inch of rain today here in Tomball...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

1.5 inches in East Central Montgomery County and the main event hasn't even started yet. I think 4 inches is probably going to be easy to achieve tonight/tomorrow. I might just get the 6-7 some are talking about.

[dhweather]

I hope the models are wrong and the system slows down some, so we get more rain statewide. It's sad that we have to cheer on a potential flash flood situation, but that's what its come to. Droughts suck supremely.

[dhweather]

If the 06Z NAM is right on rainfall totals, this would be great.