Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Raebie]

Got my shopping list ready to get me through the end of next week. The stores will be crazy this weekend when the local mets really start talking about it...want to get my stuff today. And if the forecast is correct, this could stick around for awhile once it falls. Brrr! Kids might be looking at several snow days next week.

[DEEDEE911]

12z model runs snow accumulations, both near historic storms, the NAM is epic with 6+ inches of snow from TX all the way over to GA and isolated 10 inches.

NAM:



GFS:

can someone tell me what this is showing for southwest mississippi at atound adams and pike counties i am still trying to learn how to read these maps and also for franklin county where my house sits in franklin county it is covered in blue

[northjaxpro]

Raebie, I was told by family members up there that about 3 inches of snow fell up in Concord during the Christmas weekend storm.

This storm could potentially bring at least about 3-5 inches in many areas of the Piedmont. This could change as well as we get closer to the event.

Also, Raebie you are right. The snow looks to remain on the ground for quite awhile as more colder air surges in later next week in the region.

[Raebie]

I'm on the southside of Charlotte and we got about 2 inches...heavy, wet & beautiful. One of our local mets is saying 4-6 for the metro area and possibly more if it all comes down as snow as opposed to a mix at times. That would shut the city down good & proper for several days.

[DEEDEE911]

wow the college i attend in natchez mississippi just sent an email stating to be alert for closures because they and the weather stations here are predicting a great amount of acummliation of snow depending on the temp and just a few minutes ago the weather stations here was saying just cold rain i do not know what to believe i guess i will have to wait and see when the day comes to see what we get i know my kids would love the snow

[Brent]

12z model runs snow accumulations, both near historic storms, the NAM is epic with 6+ inches of snow from TX all the way over to GA and isolated 10 inches.

NAM:



GFS:

can someone tell me what this is showing for southwest mississippi at atound adams and pike counties i am still trying to learn how to read these maps and also for franklin county where my house sits in franklin county it is covered in blue

Just use the legend at the bottom. The blue on the 2nd map is 3-4 inches.

[northjaxpro]

wow the college i attend in natchez mississippi just sent an email stating to be alert for closures because they and the weather stations here are predicting a great amount of acummliation of snow depending on the temp and just a few minutes ago the weather stations here was saying just cold rain i do not know what to believe i guess i will have to wait and see when the day comes to see what we get i know my kids would love the snow

I just checked the models from earlier today for your area of SW Mississippi and based on the thermal profiles, it will be an extremely close call around Natchez and McComb in regards to the wintry precip. Talk about right on the fence. The key will be the wet bulbing effect. I think should you get the frozen precipitation in the region, it will be right at the onset of when the heavier overrunning preciptitation arrives in the region on Sunday. There may be just enough dynamic cooling of the column to snow to that area, likely early on Sunday. However, I think there is probably more a risk of sleet or freezing rain there as there will be a" warm nose" approaching that region as the Low pressure area moves by that region during the day on Sunday. It is going to be a close call nonetheless, so I would just keep monitoring the latest from the NWS during the weekend.

[Brent]

Wow.

[Lane]

I see a lot of things saying 1-2 inches for us. But hear a lot of people talking more 4-6 for us. What do you think will happen?

[Ivanhater]

Wow...12z Nam and GFS showing snow down to the Gulf coast'

[tugreenie]

Ivan, where on the Gulf Coast?

[tugreenie]

I see it now. Thanks

[Brent]

I see a lot of things saying 1-2 inches for us. But hear a lot of people talking more 4-6 for us. What do you think will happen?

I really don't know. Both options are on the table. I'm still concerned that it's mostly freezing rain especially closer to Montgomery. The closer you get to I-20 the more snow there will be... as of now. Now this could change, but I think I'm on the line between very heavy snow and lesser snow and more ice. That being said... last night the very heavy snow was 100 miles north of me, so the trend today has been colder/snowier further south in Alabama. It's still 2 days away though, anything can happen at this point.

[PTPatrick]

these maps just look fishy. The actual break downs on the maps(not the accum map) doesnt look all that supportive fo snow south of I-20. there is a freezing layer almost to the coast that I think could support sleet or freezing rain, but surface temps are not even looking all that supportive of that. i just dont get where the accumulation maps are coming from. I guess I didnt know as much about this stuff as I though.

Meanwhil sound slike new EURO just has couple inches in far north miss and AL...and not much else.

[Ivanhater]

these maps just look fishy. The actual break downs on the maps(not the accum map) doesnt look all that supportive fo snow south of I-20. there is a freezing layer almost to the coast that I think could support sleet or freezing rain, but surface temps are not even looking all that supportive of that. i just dont get where the accumulation maps are coming from. I guess I didnt know as much about this stuff as I though.

Meanwhil sound slike new EURO just has couple inches in far north miss and AL...and not much else.

It is odd...all the models have shown snow all the way to the Gulf coast for days now. It is not one model or one run. There must be some crazy dynamics in play here...Confusing

[Brent]

Morning update on snow storm
Dr. Tim Coleman | 12:46 pm January 7, 2011 | Comments (3)

Looking at all 12Z models now. The NAM has come in with some very impressive snowfall amounts (see James’ post below), and the models have generally trended toward a surface low a little farther south, meaning a colder atmosphere overall, and less of a warm layer to produce rain that would freeze on impact, producing an ice storm.

It looks like we may have to move the ”sweet spot” for the heaviest snow accumulations a little south this afternoon. We don’t make big changes based on one model run, but I’d say the most likely area for heaviest snow extends from BHM to HSV, instead of Cullman to south TN. One concern is that there is still some warm air between 4,000 and 8,000 feet, and for snow to form (instead of supercooled water drops), the temperature needs to be below 23 degrees aloft. That should be the case, as most of the dynamic lift with this system is between 10,000 and 20,000 feet, but NCEP (Washington “think tank” of NWS) is still concerned about icing in central Alabama, especially BHM to MGM.

Bottom line…precipitation will begin, probably as snow (at least in areas from Clanton north), late Sunday afternoon, then really pick up Sunday night. We expect snow amounts in the heaviest snow band, wherever that sets up, of 4 to 8″, with 2-4″ either side of it. Some of the snow could change over to freezing rain early Monday morning, producing icing. We will have to watch the temperatures aloft carefully tomorrow as the cold air comes in. Even if it is all snow, the weight of it may cause some power outages.

If you have any plans to travel on the roads in north and central Alabama, you should try to do that before about 8 pm Sunday (+/-). Travel may be impossible Monday (and maybe Tuesday).

We are now 95% confident that there will be a major winter storm in Alabama. I’d give it 90% that it shuts down the interstates in BHM.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=38832

[BigB0882]

Well they seem to have nudged the snow further and further south. The NAM even shows a little in Baton Rouge I think with the GFS being right on the edge. I doubt we get snow but with this still being 2.5 days away, maybe it can trend even further south.

[Brent]

Across the stateline in Georgia:

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Snow and sleet. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday: Freezing rain and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Heavy snow with ice on top it appears.

[Brent]

Forecaster at FFC said a WSW is coming for 5-7 inches of snow across North Georgia including the Atlanta metro and that BMX, CAE, and even TAE(at least) are following suit within the next couple hours. The Alabama EMA is having a big statewide briefing shortly.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
150 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAY
MORNING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE STORM PUSHES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...BUT ANY SLEET WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ARZ035-036-048-MSZ001>006-009-014-TNZ053-088>092-081100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1200Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-
ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-CHESTER-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
150 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING SUNDAY. THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BEYOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&