Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

Tue Night Wed, is looking a little interesting to me....

[wxman57]

Very little moisture available Tuesday night, though.

[Portastorm]

Very little moisture available Tuesday night, though.

0z NAM says "not so fast." More moisture to work with on Tuesday in Texas.

[hriverajr]

Very little moisture available Tuesday night, though.

0z NAM says "not so fast." More moisture to work with on Tuesday in Texas.

I believe system approaching california. Appears fairly robust

[TheProfessor]

Any chance that the predicted midweek Gulf low develops a bit further west and becomes an App Runner? it would be nice to get some snow before I head to Texas next Friday.

[Brent]

Very little moisture available Tuesday night, though.

0z NAM says "not so fast." More moisture to work with on Tuesday in Texas.

The NAM did just nail the east coast storm so I'm watching it.

GFS is trying to show some moisture around.

[hriverajr]

I'm still interested in the Tue system in my neck of the woods (SW Texas) not like anything major, but still . After that at least according to GFS looks mild

[Wntrwthrguy]

How's it looking for the Austin area? FWIW my weather station 48 hour forecast is showing snow.

[Portastorm]

Well, you gotta start with the cold air and it now appears (see below from Twitter) that we will have a SSW within a week. The next question is WHERE will cold that be dislodged to? Hopefully this side of the globe gets it and we can start with a real winter around these parts.

[gpsnowman]

Cosgrove mentions on Twitter after a mild start to February a colder stormier pattern follows. No specifics as to where but it is a start. Feb must deliver!!

[hriverajr]

:uarrow:

How's it looking for the Austin area? FWIW my weather station 48 hour forecast is showing snow.

I would say way too dry unfortunately. Disturbance will pass well west.

[hriverajr]

:uarrow: Cosgrove mentions on Twitter after a mild start to February a colder stormier pattern follows. No specifics as to where but it is a start. Feb must deliver!!

I will say this.. most models are now creating stronger high pressure in Canada, something we have been lacking most of the winter.

[wxman57]

Very little moisture available Tuesday night, though.

0z NAM says "not so fast." More moisture to work with on Tuesday in Texas.

0Z, 06Z, and 12Z NAM say temps in the 40s across the Hill Country Tuesday evening. It forecasts a little rain there, but no snow. I believe it, too.

I'm still seeing nothing in the long-range pattern (EC/GFS) to indicate any major change in the flow pattern across the Polar region of northern Canada to indicate any significant cold moving south into the U.S. through the first week of February.

[Portastorm]

The idea here is to ENCOURAGE discussion ... not kill it off!

I'm the guy trying to get people to come to the party and you're the guy saying "don't go ... they're only going to have a keg of Lone Star and the music will suck." Come on 57, work with me here.

[hriverajr]

You know what.. I hope it rains EVERY day in the summer in the Houston area, especially during bike ride time..hehehehe

[hriverajr]

The idea here is to ENCOURAGE discussion ... not kill it off!

I'm the guy trying to get people to come to the party and you're the guy saying "don't go ... they're only going to have a keg of Lone Star and the music will suck." Come on 57, work with me here.

The Tue system is the only one we got going for awhile.. at least for the next ten days.. so I am being hopeful for the heck of it.

[Portastorm]

Here's the thing from my unscientific but 53+ years of observing weather on this planet ... patterns don't lock in for an entire winter. There are always changes in the pattern, whether they be relaxations or rearrangements. At some point in the next few weeks we will start seeing some deep, cold troughs set up out west and move across Texas. Storm systems will produce precipitation. Whether it is cold enough for snow or sleet this far south, who knows. Flat out zonal patterns with a screaming, warm Pacific jet are highly anomalous for the type of El Nino pattern we are in. So that is unlikely to happen. I honestly believe that at same point in early February we will see a big pattern change.

[perk]

The idea here is to ENCOURAGE discussion ... not kill it off!

I'm the guy trying to get people to come to the party and you're the guy saying "don't go ... they're only going to have a keg of Lone Star and the music will suck." Come on 57, work with me here.

Portastorm wxman57 will admit to nothing involving wintry weather.He can come out in the morning and see 4 inches of snow in his yard,and he'll swear someone came by with a snow machine and sprayed his entire neighborhood.

[wxman57]

The idea here is to ENCOURAGE discussion ... not kill it off!

I'm the guy trying to get people to come to the party and you're the guy saying "don't go ... they're only going to have a keg of Lone Star and the music will suck." Come on 57, work with me here.

I'll work with you, Portastorm. Let's see, there's at least a .3% chance of snow in Austin Tuesday evening! Come on, snow!

[Portastorm]

There you go! I like that spirit.

0.3%? There IS a chance.