Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Tbh, I'll gladly trade these dry cold snaps for a moderate El Nino. I'm not sure the southern plains can survive another brutal La Nina spring/summer or we'll be looking at another 2011 situation down here in south central TX.

This La Nina is dying, and CPC gives a 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions by February-March. ENSO Neutral will most likely persist through summer and perhaps transition to El Nino come Fall 23

I don't think it's dying right now, the Daily SOI is above +30 right now.

There is a little bit of a disconnect with the mid latitude pattern to the SOI. The milder period coming week 2 looks like 2015's Super Nino Dec outlook.

[Iceresistance]

I may get above freezing after all today, it's 30°F. The Dew Point is increasing as well.

[Quixotic]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

Nobody is using Oklahoma anyways. Fantastic idea.

[rwfromkansas]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

Now that’s an idea. And it would be a tourist magnet.

[Iceresistance]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

Nobody is using Oklahoma anyways. Fantastic idea.

I am!

Also, we already have Lake Texoma across the OK/TX Border.

[orangeblood]

Some of these Wind Chill Forecasts are insane... -70F in Wyoming! There is nothing normal about this Outbreak, extremely dangerous

 https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1605350765131808768

[wxman57]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

[Ntxw]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

[orangeblood]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

See post above -70F windchill in the plains of NE Wyoming The HP is forecast to build as it moves south this afternoon, real time observations will be much more pronounced this evening.

[wxman57]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

I remain unimpressed so far, just concerning post-front temps. You can get a wind chill of -70F with a -25F temp and a 45-50 mph wind. The wind chill will definitely make it feel colder. Watch temps in southern Nebraska and Kansas. Definitely flat there and no high elevations.

[Ntxw]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

I remain unimpressed so far, just concerning post-front temps. You can get a wind chill of -70F with a -25F temp and a 45-50 mph wind. The wind chill will definitely make it feel colder. Watch temps in southern Nebraska and Kansas. Definitely flat there and no high elevations.

Is this the heat miser or cold miser ego talking . Anything less than 80C would be unacceptable!

[Edwards Limestone]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

I remain unimpressed so far, just concerning post-front temps. You can get a wind chill of -70F with a -25F temp and a 45-50 mph wind. The wind chill will definitely make it feel colder. Watch temps in southern Nebraska and Kansas. Definitely flat there and no high elevations.

Fine with me. I hope this front totally busts on the high side for temps. Extreme cold w/ no precip is nothing but a nuisance in our part of the world.

I think if Feb 2021 hadn't happened, this wouldn't be getting the press that it is. Luckily, it doesn't look like this front will be anything like that event.

[wxman57]

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

I remain unimpressed so far, just concerning post-front temps. You can get a wind chill of -70F with a -25F temp and a 45-50 mph wind. The wind chill will definitely make it feel colder. Watch temps in southern Nebraska and Kansas. Definitely flat there and no high elevations.

Is this the heat miser or cold miser ego talking . Anything less than 80C would be unacceptable!

Minus 25F is certainly cold for Oklahoma City, but not for Wyoming in winter. Let's see what the airmass looks like in Kansas and Oklahoma tonight. By the way, winter begins at 3:47pm today.

[Iceresistance]

33°F and finally above freezing after 25 hours!

[EnnisTx]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

Nobody is using Oklahoma anyways. Fantastic idea.

I am!

Also, we already have Lake Texoma across the OK/TX Border.

That's true, but I'm all for expanding Lake Texoma from North Tarrant and Dallas counties all the way North to Oklahoma City....

[EtoileTX]

Wheatland Wyoming just went from 44f to 3 f in under an hour

[EtoileTX]

Wheatland Wyoming just went from 44f to 3 f in under an hour

[Ntxw]

While we're waiting for maps and cold, here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

[Iceresistance]

While we're waiting for maps and cold here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

It's weird that January is not featured here, maybe that January is the "Reset and Reload" month?

[Ntxw]

While we're waiting for maps and cold here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

It's weird that January is not featured here, maybe that January is the "Reset and Reload" month?

January doesn't appear much after 1979. But in the past they do exist just not on this site. Jan 1962 is probably #2 in terms of HP driving cold.

Jan 1985 does exist but it's a different type of pattern and focuses more east of the MS River.