Texas Winter 2025-2026

[MississippiWx]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

[Iceresistance]

IT'S SHOWTIME!


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkM9b.png

[Brent]

There is a 28 inch member on the EPS in Oklahoma

I have no words

[Ntxw]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

[HockeyTx82]

:D As a survivor of the “Great Christmas Eve Snowstorm Debate” here in 2009, it might be time for a friendly S2K Moderator reminder here.

Since big ticket events (like this one appears to be on its way to becoming) are a part of why many of us love the Texas Winter Weather thread here on Storm2K, sometimes things can get a little less friendly around here.

While honest discussion is welcome, it might pay to reread the Storm2K rules again, particularly the portions about trolling, attacking others, etc.

Basically, follow the Golden Rule and this idea: “Show some RESPECT and think before you post…”

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

To this day I still wonder what happened to the guy who made the call and stuck to his guns.

That was the most unbelievable thread I've been a part of.

[chickypez]

drinking beer, hanging at Crown and Anchor

Had to say hi and comment on this one! I too spent quite a bit of my time I was at UT hanging out at the Crown and Anchor. I was either there or at The Ginger Man playing pool. And to add something weather related, I remember one year driving back from Christmas break when an ice storm hit. We made it to Austin ok but trying to get my boyfriend back to his dorm, we got stuck at the hill at Lamar and MLK. Could not get up that hill for the ice!

Can't wait to see what this weekend has in store. As someone who loves winter weather but knows nothing about the nitty gritty details, I really appreciate the knowledge and insights from you all!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

You just said it better than I did on another site. It really is unique. We see a couple of these variables missing in most modeled storms. Dare I say this is the perfect winter storm setup for Texas?

I’m thinking Dallas sees more snow than modeled. I also think all of SETX gets frozen precip with the sleet line creeping to i10, maybe a bit south of it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:D As a survivor of the “Great Christmas Eve Snowstorm Debate” here in 2009, it might be time for a friendly S2K Moderator reminder here.

Since big ticket events (like this one appears to be on its way to becoming) are a part of why many of us love the Texas Winter Weather thread here on Storm2K, sometimes things can get a little less friendly around here.

While honest discussion is welcome, it might pay to reread the Storm2K rules again, particularly the portions about trolling, attacking others, etc.

Basically, follow the Golden Rule and this idea: “Show some RESPECT and think before you post…”

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

To this day I still wonder what happened to the guy who made the call and stuck to his guns.

That was the most unbelievable thread I've been a part of.

That thread is what made me a lurker here. I joined shortly thereafter. All time thread with maybe 2021 surpassing it.

[wxman57]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

Slow walk is probably the wise move ATM.

A "slow walk" may be good as far as winter precip amounts. However, saying there's a 30-40% chance that there will not be any precip at all is ridiculous. 100% chance of precip. Something will fall from the sky this weekend over much of Texas. Maybe if they admit that precip chances are really 100% they're afraid of causing a panic?

[MississippiWx]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

As soon as I pressed submit on my post, I saw Eric Webb post on this exact topic. He had the same reasoning.


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013340304741388460

[bubba hotep]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

You just said it better than I did on another site. It really is unique. We see a couple of these variables missing in most modeled storms. Dare I say this is the perfect winter storm setup for Texas?

I’m thinking Dallas sees more snow than modeled. I also think all of SETX gets frozen precip with the sleet line creeping to i10, maybe a bit south of it.

I think we can say "historic" pretty safely. I was telling someone earlier, usually we go into the 4th quarter needing (cold or moisture or timing) to kick a 50 yd FG as time expires. However, this feels like we will just be talking about how much we are going to win by this go round.

[TomballEd]

Sorry if posted, I didn't see it. Ryan Hall may be livestreaming snow chasers next weekend. Good disco

 https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/2013329612994998484

[Ntxw]

The winter storm is deeply rooted to the tropics. The connection is prevalent and P7 where the best rising motion is occurring at the right time.





Some of our best winter wx events happen when convection fires off near the international dateline.

[snownado]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

Slow walk is probably the wise move ATM.

A "slow walk" may be good as far as winter precip amounts. However, saying there's a 30-40% chance that there will not be any precip at all is ridiculous. 100% chance of precip. Something will fall from the sky this weekend over much of Texas. Maybe if they admit that precip chances are really 100% they're afraid of causing a panic?

That's just being nitpicky, IMO. The precise wording in the NWS grids for 60-70% chance of precip is "snow/rain likely." Most with common sense will take that to mean it's unlikely they'll be no precipitation.

And while there's relatively strong model consensus now, I've seen what were projected to be significant storms completely unravel even in the final 48-72 hours. It would just be malfeasance to present what they're showing verbatim for the time being as gospel.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty incredible winter storm potential on the horizon. Past experience with models in this situation is that it’s a good thing when they pick up on the storm in the medium range. They tend to only make it bigger and stronger the closer you get. I feel pretty certain Central/Northern Texas are going to get a high impact winter storm.

For SE Texas over to us in Southeast Mississippi, it’s going to depend on the baroclinic zone and the trajectory of any low that rides along that boundary. The Euro, and now the CMC, have a fairly significant low riding northeast into the Central Gulf states. The GFS has the baroclinic zone forced south into the Gulf. I’m not sure where to lean on this. Past experience makes me believe we will be in a cold rain in this kind of setup. I think Southeast Texas still finds its way into the frozen precip mix of some sort as cold air always spills south way faster in these setups than southeast. The only thing making me question the Euro placement of the low/baroclinic zone is the parent upper low/polar vortex lobe being located in the Great Lakes region into the northeast. Will this shove the zone further south and east? We will see! Any ideas, Ntwx?

Regardless, I think Texas is in for a treat and possibly a disaster of sorts with ice.

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

As soon as I pressed submit on my post, I saw Eric Webb post on this exact topic. He had the same reasoning.


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013340304741388460

I've mentioned this a couple of times. Especially in La Niña winters, we tend to see these TPV rotating into the Lakes suppress and or shear out any systems trying to come out of the SW. As Ntwx just highlighted, the juiced up subtropical jet is a game changer this go round. I still wouldn't be surprised to see things trend southward some this week as the models better resolve the path of the TPV.

[Lastcall88]

Do we have a decent timeframe on when the cold front is hitting Austin area? Friday or Saturday during the day?

[Steve]

Suppression is the game if you asked me to bet. Energy loves to round the base of the troughs and this large cold dome 500mb tpv is centered around the Lakes, rather than the cut northeast/nw side trends when they sit over Montana. These set ups are rare, usually we have either the northern stream come in and dry everything (gulf snow), or the southern wave is stronger and warm air advection wins (Southern high plains). You have vigorous STJ at the same time a vigorous cold dome pushing at each other.

You just said it better than I did on another site. It really is unique. We see a couple of these variables missing in most modeled storms. Dare I say this is the perfect winter storm setup for Texas?

I’m thinking Dallas sees more snow than modeled. I also think all of SETX gets frozen precip with the sleet line creeping to i10, maybe a bit south of it.

I think we can say "historic" pretty safely. I was telling someone earlier, usually we go into the 4th quarter needing (cold or moisture or timing) to kick a 50 yd FG as time expires. However, this feels like we will just be talking about how much we are going to win by this go round.

Yeah that was us on the Gulf Coast last year. It got to that can’t be denied point a few days before hand. All those times we thought we had a chance and got nothing or not much vs okay, plan for the interruption and make sure all vices are covered for the inevitable 3 day shutdown. Hope y’all get it and save a little for us farther south and east.

[TomballEd]

Do we have a decent timeframe on when the cold front is hitting Austin area? Friday or Saturday during the day?

If the GFS is right, early morning hours Saturday although it is probably a smidge slow with the front, Friday evening would be my bet.

[Steve]

Do we have a decent timeframe on when the cold front is hitting Austin area? Friday or Saturday during the day?

Need more consensus but GFS has y’all Friday evening through most of Saturday.

[Ntxw]

EC weeklies continue to advertise lower heights across the US, with blocking over the top in the two places that is ideal, Pacific and Atlantic. Just by recognition it is the type of pattern that would yield winter storm after winter storm across the central and eastern US - February.