Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Iceresistance]

Trends are coming back, I knew it was just the mid-range shenanigans

ICON

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEV.gif

GFS (used snowfall to show the trends)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEZ.gif

[Brent]

Nothing earth shattering yet folks. Models were advertising a colder solution a week or so ago for this upcoming time period after Thanksgiving (including the AIFS) and yet we're looking at 40's and 50's now for highs Monday followed by a warming trend by the end of next the so I'd caution getting too caught up over medium range signals with the same models (including ensembles) that have struggled with the pattern.

With a positive AO signal however any cold we get down here will likely be transient in nature anyway. Yes, there are obviously other factors that can bring some cold but overall until the AO cooperates in concert with the other players it's going to be more rollercoaster if that as opposed to any sustained cold in my opinion.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Tbf I think it's still super early anyway.... And I was kind of railing against a big early storm last week wasting the winter before the hype got ridiculous so I mean whatever I guess. Like even this storm I bet it would be a lot crazier if it was a few weeks from now

It would be nice just to see a colder December than the last couple years though. Maybe at least we'll see some flakes here next week(there was one year since I've been here it was after Christmas I remember and I believe that was the winter that sucked)

[wxman22]

Trends are coming back, I knew it was just the mid-range shenanigans

ICON
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEV.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEV.gif

GFS (used snowfall to show the trends)
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEZ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEZ.gif

We can still squeeze a small storm out of this, if the shortwave is vigorous enough.

[Ntxw]

Nothing earth shattering yet folks. Models were advertising a colder solution a week or so ago for this upcoming time period after Thanksgiving (including the AIFS) and yet we're looking at 40's and 50's now for highs Monday followed by a warming trend by the end of next the so I'd caution getting too caught up over medium range signals with the same models (including ensembles) that have struggled with the pattern.

With a positive AO signal however any cold we get down here will likely be transient in nature anyway. Yes, there are obviously other factors that can bring some cold but overall until the AO cooperates in concert with the other players it's going to be more rollercoaster if that as opposed to any sustained cold in my opinion.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Tbf I think it's still super early anyway.... And I was kind of railing against a big early storm last week wasting the winter before the hype got ridiculous so I mean whatever I guess. Like even this storm I bet it would be a lot crazier if it was a few weeks from now

It would be nice just to see a colder December than the last couple years though. Maybe at least we'll see some flakes here next week(there was one year since I've been here it was after Christmas I remember and I believe that was the winter that sucked)

I am with you on seeing a colder December. We have not seen a below normal December since 2013, 11 years ago...plenty of torch ones though.

[Stratton23]

Im interested to see how the Euro AIFS performs against other models this winter , so far with our upcoming early december “arctic front” it has outperformed the other global models, it picked up on the east trends first while the euro/ gfs were hanging back west and now all guidance has fallen in line with the AIFS, its pretty locked in on a + TNH pattern developing for mid december, the euro and EPS ensembles have both trended toward the AIFS in that department, going to be an interesting model for sure to watch

[Brent]

Trends are coming back, I knew it was just the mid-range shenanigans

ICON
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEV.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEV.gif

GFS (used snowfall to show the trends)
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEZ.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9aEZ.gif

We can still squeeze a small storm out of this, if the shortwave is vigorous enough.

Accuweather still shows potential for a light accumulating snow so we'll see. One thing of note it largely has it during the day Monday

I mean to be completely honest there aren't many real snow events here this early anyway. I would consider any flakes to be a win

[Cpv17]

Im interested to see how the Euro AIFS performs against other models this winter , so far with our upcoming early december “arctic front” it has outperformed the other global models, it picked up on the east trends first while the euro/ gfs were hanging back west and now all guidance has fallen in line with the AIFS, its pretty locked in on a + TNH pattern developing for mid december, the euro and EPS ensembles have both trended toward the AIFS in that department, going to be an interesting model for sure to watch

I think we’re gonna need some help from the AO to really drive the cold south.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 oh most definitely, the AO has been tough to get negative so far, but when you get a + TNH pattern in canada to develop, and then its just a matter of where and when that cold air gets dislodged southward, youre going to have a lot of cold building in western and central canada, dont get me wrong, we will have a warm up after our front end week, but im already seeing evidence in the EPS/ AIFS of a new alaskan ridge popping up in the 12-14 day window

[starsfan65]

Im interested to see how the Euro AIFS performs against other models this winter , so far with our upcoming early december “arctic front” it has outperformed the other global models, it picked up on the east trends first while the euro/ gfs were hanging back west and now all guidance has fallen in line with the AIFS, its pretty locked in on a + TNH pattern developing for mid december, the euro and EPS ensembles have both trended toward the AIFS in that department, going to be an interesting model for sure to watch

I think we’re gonna need some help from the AO to really drive the cold south.

It is early. it will come

[Cpv17]

Im interested to see how the Euro AIFS performs against other models this winter , so far with our upcoming early december “arctic front” it has outperformed the other global models, it picked up on the east trends first while the euro/ gfs were hanging back west and now all guidance has fallen in line with the AIFS, its pretty locked in on a + TNH pattern developing for mid december, the euro and EPS ensembles have both trended toward the AIFS in that department, going to be an interesting model for sure to watch

I think we’re gonna need some help from the AO to really drive the cold south.

It is early. it will come

Yeah, eventually it will, but I just don’t know to what extent. I don’t really know what to expect this winter, tbh. I’m thinking the second half of December it might get pretty cold. I’m not really sold on next week being that cold. Sure, it’ll get cold next week, but I doubt it’ll be anything crazy.

[starsfan65]

I think we’re gonna need some help from the AO to really drive the cold south.

It is early. it will come

Yeah, eventually it will, but I just don’t know to what extent. I don’t really know what to expect this winter, tbh. I’m thinking the second half of December it might get pretty cold. I’m not really sold on next week being that cold. Sure, it’ll get cold next week, but I doubt it’ll be anything crazy.[/quo we will see what the short term models show.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 even though im obviously biased toward colder weather here lol, it is definitely early, but I definitely do believe the 2nd half of december will be colder, MJO goes strongly into phase 8, which if im not mistaken is one of the best phases if you want cold in Texas

[Brent]

I still say this front in a few weeks would be a way bigger deal than it's gonna be

I mean a lot of places north of us haven't even had snow yet or are literally getting their first storm this weekend.... This was the coldest day we've had since March and it's not even that cold!

We gotta get more help upstream. It's a requirement in Texas

[Ntxw]

The fear this winter isn't actually going to be sustained below normal my thinking. I think yesteryear's big -PNA pumping endless warmth ->2 days of cold saga is probably over for a couple of seasons. +TNH has merit. The trend (including the past couple of weeks) is the models end up wrong and it's eastern trough, which is a cool flow, but a lot shunts to the east. This was the pattern in the 2010s.

[Iceresistance]

I really like ICON now, nice uptrend for me

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9a4C.gif

[Iceresistance]

Saw this post of the AI GEFS on WeatherBell. That's not a warm look at all

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9a8E.png

[Cpv17]

Saw this post of the AI GEFS on WeatherBell. That's not a warm look at all
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9a8E.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9a8E.png

Aleutian ridge and an Alaskan trough lol interesting

[Iceresistance]

I see our trough, uptrending and more west (Near Idaho is our trough)


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b9a85.gif

[wxman22]

[Brent]

Icon and GFS both have accumulating snow Monday

Some people here are like meh on this whole cold front already lol