Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[double D]

Hey aggicutter, notice how the NWS covered themselves by saying snow or rain showers. At least they went out on a limb and mentioned the S word.

[Kelarie]

Well they got burned this last go around so they are trying to cover their bases. (and I don't mean that in a bad way, I think they are trying to be a little more open to what the models are showing them)

[southerngale]

If the Fort Worth NWS is saying their temps may briefly reach freezing, I don't think we have much chance of any type of winter precipitation this far south. Not that I really thought we did anyway, but it's always nice to dream~

Don't forget the sleet and snow that fell less than a week ago in parts of south-central TX with temps. in the 40s. It doesn't have to be 32F for snow and sleet to reach the surface as long as the upper atmosphere is cold enough and/or the lower atmosphere is dry enough (wet-bulb temps. at or below 32F).

But it wouldn't accumulate and hang around long enough for me to build Frosty or make snow angels.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the Fort Worth NWS is saying their temps may briefly reach freezing, I don't think we have much chance of any type of winter precipitation this far south. Not that I really thought we did anyway, but it's always nice to dream~

Don't forget the sleet and snow that fell less than a week ago in parts of south-central TX with temps. in the 40s. It doesn't have to be 32F for snow and sleet to reach the surface as long as the upper atmosphere is cold enough and/or the lower atmosphere is dry enough (wet-bulb temps. at or below 32F).

But it wouldn't accumulate and hang around long enough for me to build Frosty or make snow angels.

yeah, your right. It would take a rare setup for that. However, a few flakes or sleet pellets flying through the air within a few days of Christmas would sure help make the season a little brighter.

[aggiecutter]

The noon Ensembles say it is going to get cold at the end of the month.

Noon Ensembles 12-14-06:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21412.html

[southerngale]

I totally agree, EWG. I'd take ANY amount of snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

CPC now officially calling for colder than normal weather for almost the entire state of TX in both the day 6-10 and 8-14 outlook:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

They are also showing it wetter than normal:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif

And here is an interesting graphic as well:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... hreats.gif

[double D]

That last graphic is very interesting EWG. Hopefully that winter storm graphic can move a little more east towards central and southeast Texas.

[JenBayles]

I sure hope that heavy rain forecast comes to pass. The state of Texas is about the dry up and blow away. Dave spoke with some farmers out in Flatonia today and they are VERY concerned about the drought. Not sure if it's even worth planting in the spring. Bring on the rain! I don't even care if it's in frozen form - we really need to fill up the cattle tanks and creeks.

[double D]

I agree Jen, here in the hill country I don't think we have had any rain since mid October. The peaches did not do very well last year and I fear that this year will be any better if we don't start getting some rain soon.l

[Johnny]

I've been promising my family for years that I would take them to see snow. The only catch is, it has to be within a 3 to 5 hour drive and we need to be in the line of fire before it starts falling. In 2004, the snow fell on Christmas Eve and I was stuck doing Christmas duties so I didn't get to get into any of that. Last year was pretty much a bust with no good snow accumulations within my driving distance. IF this looks like a good chance of some accumulating snow within a 5 hour drive, I'll be all over it. The kids are off next week so it would be good timing. Bring us some snow!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z run is coming in now and it still shows some strong storms followed by low pressure next week. This will lead to heavy rains for much of Central and SE Texas and if the low stays north...snow/ice could be an issue up there. However, the EXACT track of the low will be crucial. IF it tracks further south, then places like Austin and Houston could be in for a wintry surprise.

The suspense continues..

Here is a detailed look at the run for next weeks storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^Storms firing across the state Tuesday evening^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
^^Squall line rolls through Houston Wednesday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
^^By Wednesday evening, cold air is spilling into the state. In most areas the precip. type remains rain with clouds and wind...but in western TX and the panhandle, a significant winter storm could be underway.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
^^By early Thursday morning, the upper-level cold pocket to the west of the low is entering north TX. Many areas may start to see a change over to snow/sleet up there.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml
^^Very cold atmospheric temperatures taking over the state by sunrise Thursday. Any light precipitation would likely fall as rain (may be sleet) in central and SE Texas and in north Texas there could be some light snow.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
^^By Thursday afternoon, temperatures are struggling to get out of the 40s in many areas with light wrap-around wintery precipitation possible in north Texas.^^

As you can see, it will be that upper-level cold pocket behind the low that will be so important. Wherever that pocket goes, there will likely be a change over to wintry precipitation (likely snow). If the low pressure area is further south, then places further south could get in on the action. We will have to see what happens though as we are still 6-7 days out and things change quickly. It is nice to see that the model has developed some consistency though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW: for your own full look at the 00Z GFS run, you can visit this link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2006

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DAY-3 IS FCST TO SHED NRN STREAM
COMPONENT DURING DAY-4...AS BASAL SPEED MAX DIGS THROUGH SWRN DESERT
REGION. AS A RESULT...PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW SHOULD EVOLVE AND EJECT
EWD OR NEWD ACROSS ERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...AS PROGGED BY SEVERAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MANY MREF MEMBERS. TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
INFLUENCE MORE SPECIFIC CONCENTRATION/STRENGTH OF SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS BETWEEN E TX...AR AND FL
PANHANDLE MAY EXPERIENCE ORGANIZED SVR EPISODE DURING PARTS OF DAYS
4-7...MON-THU. SVR PROBABILITY GENERALLY MAY INCREASE WITH
PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL/WRN GULF COAST...WHICH SHOULD CORRESPOND TO
MOST COMPLETELY MODIFIED RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE PLUME AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY...AND WE WILL NOT ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF
WINTER PRECIP SINCE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW EJECTING
OUT MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE TUE-WED FOR HIGHS IN ANTICIPATION OF
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN.

[Portastorm]

From everything I have read and seen this morning, the threat next week looks more like a severe/heavy rain threat for most of us in Texas. Folks in the Panhandle and maybe portions of the Lubbock area may be dealing with winter weather but east and south of that area ... should probably be rain and storms.

Well, we desperately need rain so I'm not griping.

[jasons2k]

This system to me looks like the Panhandle may get slammed pretty good. I'd say a 6"+ snowfall (Plainview - north) episode in a burst when the cold core goes across next Thursday, but only a brief changeover possible for the DFW Metroplex.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From everything I have read and seen this morning, the threat next week looks more like a severe/heavy rain threat for most of us in Texas. Folks in the Panhandle and maybe portions of the Lubbock area may be dealing with winter weather but east and south of that area ... should probably be rain and storms.

Well, we desperately need rain so I'm not griping.

I agree. Looks like more of a severe/flooding event than anything else with some chillier air on the backside, but the snow/ice should stay north and west of most. However, if the low takes a more southerly route, then some wintery precip. cannot be ruled out. The 12Z run shifts the low north, but since the exact track has been flip-flopping lately, we will need to wait for more consistancy to resume. We should know more by the end of the weekend.

[aggiecutter]

The Ensembles are still bringing down a pretty good cold shot early Christmas week.
Ensembles 12-15-06:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 64_us.html

Also checkout the area of lower than normal heights over the southern plains. That is pretty impressive:

Height Anomalies for Christmas week:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 64_us.html

[JenBayles]

I have no trouble admitting I'm just an enthusiastic weather observer and claim no meteorologic knowledge. Bearing that it mind, aggiecutter, can you translate exactly what "heights" means and the significance? I need a couple more wrinkles on my brain!