Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Huge storm signal early Feb.

[hriverajr]

There you go! I like that spirit.

0.3%? There IS a chance.

He is relishing this... karma karma....

[JDawg512]

I've gotten some inspiration from our friend Heat Miser's avatar pic and will be designing a new character to add to my banner. Should be up in about 2 weeks so stay tuned for the creation of a new persona...

[hriverajr]

Like my avatar?

[aggiecutter]

Huge storm signal early Feb.

The early February storm looks similar to the Christmas week storm to me ie severe weather and flooding in the (I-30:I-20) and I-35 corridors.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[JDawg512]

Like my avatar?

Haha that's pretty funny!

I'm gonna create a character based off a theme.

Figured why not?...It's something to do to pass the time while waiting for the next major weather event.

[Tireman4]

Like my avatar?

Yep, that looks like his bike..lol

[orangeblood]

We need a Major SSW or this winter might be toast (there have been attempts but none of these events have materialized like the models have been forecasting)......Stratosphere is getting into record cold territory at this point, now is the time!

[Ntxw]

We need a Major SSW or this winter might be toast (there have been attempts but none of these events have materialized like the models have been forecasting)......Stratosphere is getting into record cold territory at this point, now is the time!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... mb9065.png

Well we can still get a -AO without a true SSW. We just did bottom up vs up down. The troposphere can do it too, much quicker. Though a SSW would likely prolong a -AO. I think the big issue has been lack of true anomalous cold air. There just hasn't been the large areas of -30s/-40s or greater up in Canada. High pressures up north haven't been much higher than 1040 for any given time which is within 1-2 SD's near normal. The east coast's blizzard wasn't really that cold nor was it that cold behind it. Just cold enough and deep enough system.

[Ntxw]

One thing though, most sites are running below normal for January. DFW is the warmest of the big three metro's at -0.8C, Houston is the coldest at -2.3C. Temperature wise it's following that strong Nino climo quite well still from the warm December to cold January. No reason to believe February won't follow it either. So as much as Wxman57 likes to taunt us, it hasn't been ideal for him either.


viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117335

[wxman57]

Like my avatar?

Yep, that looks like his bike..lol

I did that while skiing at Purgatory once. Went off-trail and hit some deep snow. My skies stuck and went head-first into a snow bank. I still remember the squeaking sound I made when I did my head plant. Fortunately, snow is soft (and nobody in my group saw me).

[Ntxw]

You sir are too funny

Warming trend this week towards 70. Today started out here in the mid 50s closer to the normal daily highs

[Tireman4]

Like my avatar?

Yep, that looks like his bike..lol

I did that while skiing at Purgatory once. Went off-trail and hit some deep snow. My skies stuck and went head-first into a snow bank. I still remember the squeaking sound I made when I did my head plant. Fortunately, snow is soft (and nobody in my group saw me).

Oh my. I am sure that was a sight to see. Gracious.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: You sir are too funny

Warming trend this week towards 70. Today started out here in the mid 50s closer to the normal daily highs

Must. Have. Winter. To. Stay. Awhile. Ughh.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can temps displayed in the chart posted by Orangeblood stay that cold all winter without a SSW event? I would be expecting one to occur sooner than later, but yes, as posted above, we need a little luck on having the cold air become dislodged into our direction but i like our chances.

[wxman57]

Did someone mention a warming trend ahead?

12Z GFS has sleet for us in Houston - in 15 days. I'm sure it's correct, though.

[Tireman4]

Did someone mention a warming trend ahead?

12Z GFS has sleet for us in Houston - in 15 days. I'm sure it's correct, though.

Wait, what happened to Bi-Polar Wxman 57? Did he leave? Did the bike avatar scare him away? Yeah, that has been the theme this year. Always 14 days out. Sigh.

[Brent]

75 next Sunday? Oh my... wxman57 has taken over the thermostat again.

[wxman57]

Hi Portastorm! Good news, there is still a chance of snow for Austin tomorrow evening. Sure, it's only .03% (down a bit) but there's a chance!

I still see nothing in the long-range that would suggest a major pattern change from the present. No significant cross-Polar flow to bring down any really cold air to Texas. Maybe a light freeze for the D-FW area late next week. Possibly a tad colder beyond then. Could be even a light freeze for Houston the first week of February, but no precip with the cold(ish) air.

The 12Z GFS does bring a strong high pressure area south in a couple weeks, but it keeps the cold air well east of Texas. Freezing well south across the FL Peninsula. Too soon to say if that cold airmass will actually do that.

[Yukon Cornelius]