Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

FYI late Monday or Tuesday on the Euro and other guidance still support another front as flow is N/S. Nothing like the coming wave but if models underestimate strength it's another pretty chilly day or two after Christmas. For DFW it's struggle out of 30s and lows in low 20s. It just backs the theory it is tough to erode cold that easily.

[Cerlin]

Driving in DFW today, lots of brine treatment being added to the highways. I think that pretty much confirms we won’t see any winter weather anytime soon given their track record

[Iceresistance]

Driving in DFW today, lots of brine treatment being added to the highways. I think that pretty much confirms we won’t see any winter weather anytime soon given their track record

Um, I thought your location is in Norman.

[orangeblood]

While we're waiting for maps and cold, here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

Impressive site, thanks for sharing

[Iceresistance]

The verdict is in, the trip to Missouri will continue as normal, except we won't leave on Monday. We will leave on Tuesday morning.

[orangeblood]

You can pick out the front now crossing NW Nebraska. About a 10-20F drop either side of the front. However, it's already cold ahead of the front, so you wouldn't expect a tremendous drop. Mountains in Wyoming don't count. Looks at the airmass over the Plains. That temperature differential will be accentuated when it reaches the 50s and 60s across Texas tomorrow. I would prefer that the 12Z GFS be correct. Just one hard freeze followed by a light freeze Saturday. Sounds good to me, but I think it will be colder here. Canadian is just nuts, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/Front.JPG

I would count eastern and in particular northeast WY in the locations mentioned above. They are east of the Bighorn and Laramie mountains part of the Great Plains. Really just an extension of far western Nebraska.

I remain unimpressed so far, just concerning post-front temps. You can get a wind chill of -70F with a -25F temp and a 45-50 mph wind. The wind chill will definitely make it feel colder. Watch temps in southern Nebraska and Kansas. Definitely flat there and no high elevations.

Wait, what ??? Unimpressed with a -70F windchill in the lower 48 ? You can't be serious....The Rapid City, SD NWS office is talking Historic:

Temps will continue to drop down to -20 to -35 degrees. With
overnight sustained winds at 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph,
wind chills are expected to plummet down to -40 to -60 degrees
Thursday morning. In the last 70 years or so, the coldest wind
chills recorded have been around this cold. The coldest wind chill
we could find on record was -63 degrees at Buffalo, SD on Dec 21,
1989. The coldest at the Rapid City Airport is -55 degrees in both
Feb 1989 and Dec 1990. Much of the CWA may be flirting with these
extreme wind chills late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning.

[EnnisTx]

Driving in DFW today, lots of brine treatment being added to the highways. I think that pretty much confirms we won’t see any winter weather anytime soon given their track record

The lanes or just bridges? Bridges I could see if they're trying to be cautious, but not the lanes.

[Ntxw]

While we're waiting for maps and cold, here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

Impressive site, thanks for sharing

Yeah I've gone through many years on the site (too much free time lately!) and we do live in a blessed part of the world for our latitude. Because of the Rockies the middle part of North America, anomaly wise, we experience some of the greatest cold dives in the world I can find. The only other area is regions of Kazakhstan and Mongolia comes close but that's way further north. Even in East Asia the departures don't even come close.

[wxman57]

I don't care what the wind chill reaches. No doubt it will be very windy with below-zero temps. It's the temperatures I'm monitoring. Temperature 2 hrs behind the front in Valentine, NE is -5F. It was 13F there two hours ago. Temps all the way across South Dakota are only -5F to -10F. No -25 to -30 temps up there. It's cold air, but nothing extreme. Not even close to 1983-1983-2021.

For Houston, models agree our low Friday will be in the low 20s to near 20. Canadian is just nuts cold, as is ICON. Don't believe either for a second. While a low around 20 in Houston is not extremely unusual, a high of 30-32 is somewhat rare, but it's only for a single day. We went 5 days below freezing in 1983 & 1989 with at least one single digit low and a high in the lower 20s. I remember working the night shift when the temp hit 9F. I had an AC vent blowing cold air down my back. Turned the heater on and nearly burned down the building. Fire department came due to all the smoke. Heater had never been turned on before. Oops!

[txtwister78]

As expected, hard freeze and wind chill watches have been upgraded to warnings for the entire South Central TX region.

[Ntxw]

I don't care what the wind chill reaches. No doubt it will be very windy with below-zero temps. It's the temperatures I'm monitoring. Temperature 2 hrs behind the front in Valentine, NE is -5F. It was 13F there two hours ago. Temps all the way across South Dakota are only -5F to -10F. No -25 to -30 temps up there. It's cold air, but nothing extreme. Not even close to 1983-1983-2021.

For Houston, models agree our low Friday will be in the low 20s to near 20. Canadian is just nuts cold, as is ICON. Don't believe either for a second. While a low around 20 in Houston is not extremely unusual, a high of 30-32 is somewhat rare, but it's only for a single day. We went 5 days below freezing in 1983 & 1989 with at least one single digit low and a high in the lower 20s. I remember working the night shift when the temp hit 9F. I had an AC vent blowing cold air down my back. Turned the heater on and nearly burned down the building. Fire department came due to all the smoke. Heater had never been turned on before. Oops!

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12Z21.JPG

Alright, alright! We can settle it 4th place, are you happy now? 1983-1989-2021-2022!

[Ntxw]

For those tracking the HP it has been building in magnitude today. Up to 1062mb on its way south. 1064mb is the magic number in Montana.

[Brent]

I've seen my first snow plow of the winter here

[EnnisTx]

I've seen my first snow plow of the winter here

I have it on good authority, it's headed to Houston....

[Cerlin]

Driving in DFW today, lots of brine treatment being added to the highways. I think that pretty much confirms we won’t see any winter weather anytime soon given their track record

Um, I thought your location is in Norman.

I’m there most of the year but I’m in DFW for a couple of weeks for Christmas!

[dpep4]

Meh, for DFW it seems kind of overblown...(wind chill joke)

One day of 11/25, but then a 19/32 that doesn't seem too unusual for the area. Wind might (or might not) keep us in Thu/Fri, big whoop. I probably won't print any "I survived..." t-shirts.

But scoot any reinforcing fronts around us. Give me the 50's next week and I'm good.

[TheProfessor]

We're having ice issues here. Accidents all over Wichita

[orangeblood]

While we're waiting for maps and cold, here is a little fun site below to look at some cold blasts from the past.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=na-lc&wm_id=t2anom&year=1983

Some years to check out. The most notable HP system outbreaks of the recent past.

Dec 17-31st 1983
Dec 17-25th 1989
Feb 1-5th 1996
Feb 1-11th 2011
Feb 5-17th 2021

Impressive site, thanks for sharing

Yeah I've gone through many years on the site (too much free time lately!) and we do live in a blessed part of the world for our latitude. Because of the Rockies the middle part of North America, anomaly wise, we experience some of the greatest cold dives in the world I can find. The only other area is regions of Kazakhstan and Mongolia comes close but that's way further north. Even in East Asia the departures don't even come close.

Yep, I believe going thru this site is why we have a better understanding of the historical nature of this type of Arctic HP system currently coming down . They are EXTREMELY RARE particularly one of this magnitude, one that could set the All-Time Lower 48 record...

[EnnisTx]

NWS FW: Extended Forecast

Thursday A slight chance of sprinkles before noon, then a slight chance of flurries and freezing drizzle between noon and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 43 by 9am, then falling to around 20 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between 2 and 12. Windy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north northwest 20 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

[Ntxw]

Impressive site, thanks for sharing

Yeah I've gone through many years on the site (too much free time lately!) and we do live in a blessed part of the world for our latitude. Because of the Rockies the middle part of North America, anomaly wise, we experience some of the greatest cold dives in the world I can find. The only other area is regions of Kazakhstan and Mongolia comes close but that's way further north. Even in East Asia the departures don't even come close.

Yep, I believe going thru this site is why we have a better understanding of the historical nature of this type of Arctic HP system currently coming down . They are EXTREMELY RARE particularly one of this magnitude, one that could set the All-Time Lower 48 record...

Yep believe what one wants about who gets it worst and IMBY temps. But for the continent it is not a typical event.