Texas Winter 2023-2024

[vxskaxv]

Harp.1 looks to be in oklahoma right now, it’s making fast progrss south

I believe that is current remnant outflow from Geri, and the big impacting front is right behind it starting to just now touch areas of north western Colorado possibly. I could very well be wrong though.

[Tammie]

These counties are just two away from us in Sherman. There’s still hope for me

Texoma KTEN News:
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by NWS Tulsa until Jan 15, 2024 12:00PM for the following counties: Choctaw, Pushmataha. A Winter Storm Watch means conditions are favorable for winter weather and travel will be impacted.

[Tammie]

NEW from NWSFW:

LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/

Overview/What`s Changed:
Only a few details have changed regarding our upcoming winter weather and prolonged cold temperatures. First, PoPs have been increased from the previous forecast as confidence continues to increase in the location and timing of precipitation. 50-60% PoPs are now mentioned after midnight Sunday night through Monday morning across eastern North and Central Texas, as this area
maintains the best potential for wintry precipitation.
Precipitation types for this event continue to come into focus as we get further in range of the hi-res guidance. As of this update, the primary precipitation type looks to transition from freezing rain to sleet for much of the region Sunday night, with snow still most likely along/north of US-380 and freezing rain most likely
across far Central Texas. Precipitation rates are still expected to be light, but even light accumulations will result in impacts across the region.

Synopsis:
In the wake of Saturday`s arctic front, an approaching shortwave trough and strong low-level isentropic ascent will result in the development of patchy freezing drizzle from south to north Sunday afternoon. As ascent continues to increase into Sunday evening, wintry precipitation will increase in coverage across the region, peaking after midnight through mid to late Monday morning. Most
precipitation will end from west to east by midday Monday, but isolated areas of snow and/or sleet could linger across eastern North and Central Texas (currently advertised by 20% PoPs). Another reinforcing shot of arctic air will arrive Monday, keeping frigid temperatures in place through Wednesday morning. A brief warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday, but another cold
front Friday will reinforce cold air across the region through next weekend. The air behind this cold front is not expected to be as cold as the early week system.

Temperatures:
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday morning. The main exception will be our far southern zones Sunday afternoon, where temperatures may reach 32-34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures will only peak in the 20s each afternoon, with morning lows mostly in the teens Sunday night and Tuesday night.
Low temperatures will be in the single digits Monday night into Tuesday morning for portions of the region, which will eventually warrant the issuance of another Hard Freeze Warning. Wind chills will be below zero at times throughout the event, particularly during the morning hours Monday and especially Tuesday, with wind
chills only reaching into the teens both afternoons (about 10-15 degrees below actual temperatures). Eventually, another Wind Chill Advisory will be needed for portions of North Texas and western Central Texas on Monday, with an expansion to all of North and Central Texas on Tuesday.

Precipitation Types/Chances:
Patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is expected to
develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. Sunday evening, freezing rain will continue to be the dominant precip type as coverage of precipitation increases across the region. However, sleet and snow will begin to mix in with the freezing rain during this time.

Throughout the night, the dominant precipitation type is expected to transition to sleet, though a wintry mix will likely continue across most of the region. The main exception will be areas along the Red River where a full transition to snow is expected late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Some areas could also see a full transition to sleet. Uncertainty is a bit higher whether or
not sleet will become the dominant precipitation type across far Central Texas. It`s possible this region will see mostly freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning, but for now we`ll continue to maintain a freezing rain/sleet mix across this region for most of the event. The threat of precipitation will end Monday night.

The best potential for wintry precipitation will be east of I-35 (40-60% chance), with lower chances west of I-35 (20-40% chance). Confidence is high in precipitation occurring, but is lower in exactly where it will occur at any given time during the event. However, regardless of how low chances are for your location, any occurrence of wintry precipitation will result in impacts given the very cold temperatures.

Accumulations/Impacts:
Not much has changed with expected accumulations for this event since the previous forecast update. Snow/sleet accumulations will be highest along/north of US-380, ranging from approximately 0.5" or less west of I-35 up to 2" east of I-35. Ice accumulations will remain light for much of the area (around a few hundredths of an
inch), as precipitation rates will be light throughout the event. Higher ice accumulations are expected across eastern Central Texas where between 0.05" and 0.10" is most likely.

Even though accumulations are expected to be relatively light and not particularly widespread (as we often see with winter events), cold temperatures will allow any wintry precipitation to stick to whatever it comes in contact with. Freezing drizzle early in the event will create a light glaze on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, anywhere it occurs. Additionally, any freezing rain will contribute to ice accumulation on all roadways. While
sleet and/or snow tend to have less impacts on travel, initial ice accumulations will result in dangerous travel conditions. Impacts will continue into Tuesday, but the return of sunshine *may* allow for some improvement, particularly across Central Texas where temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 20s or even low 30s. If any melting occurs Tuesday, any residual water will refreeze Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, conditions should rapidly improve around midday Wednesday as temperatures finally climb well above freezing under full, unfiltered sunshine.

Barnes

[gpsnowman]

Wake up boys and girls, it's Christmas morning. AKA in the weather world as Arctic Front Day. Get ready.

[Ralph's Weather]

The front currently stretches from the NE TX Panhandle down to south of OKC and Tulsa. Temps are cold even ahead of the front but ahead of the front temps will warm today while behind it they won't.

[Brent]

Wind chills of -20 already in Northern Oklahoma

[Tammie]

The front currently stretches from the NE TX Panhandle down to south of OKC and Tulsa. Temps are cold even ahead of the front but ahead of the front temps will warm today while behind it they won't.

NWS has us at a high today of mid 50’s (currently 27). We are literally 10 miles south of the Red River. Do you think we will really see mid 50’s????

[Ralph's Weather]

The front currently stretches from the NE TX Panhandle down to south of OKC and Tulsa. Temps are cold even ahead of the front but ahead of the front temps will warm today while behind it they won't.

NWS has us at a high today of mid 50’s (currently 27). We are literally 10 miles south of the Red River. Do you think we will really see mid 50’s????

It's possible. Temps can warm quickly ahead of the front but all depends when it arrives this afternoon.

[Tammie]

The front currently stretches from the NE TX Panhandle down to south of OKC and Tulsa. Temps are cold even ahead of the front but ahead of the front temps will warm today while behind it they won't.

NWS has us at a high today of mid 50’s (currently 27). We are literally 10 miles south of the Red River. Do you think we will really see mid 50’s????

It's possible. Temps can warm quickly ahead of the front but all depends when it arrives this afternoon.

They’re saying 2:00 pm for the front to hit here. Idk. Seems to be moving really fast.

[Texas Snow]

While the cold is barreling down, our little disturbance for Monday comes ashore this afternoon/evening so that and more mesoscale models come into range should hopefully start giving us a better idea on precip.

[Gotwood]

NWS has us at a high today of mid 50’s (currently 27). We are literally 10 miles south of the Red River. Do you think we will really see mid 50’s????

It's possible. Temps can warm quickly ahead of the front but all depends when it arrives this afternoon.

They’re saying 2:00 pm for the front to hit here. Idk. Seems to be moving really fast.

Front appears to be just north of Ardmore.

[gpsnowman]

Will there be a cloud deck associated with the frontal passage? It would be nice to have an indicator of when the front pushes through.

[wxman57]

Latest freezing rain and snow forecast from the NWS NBM. There are really two surges of cold air. Second reinforcing surge arrives Monday as the trof axis passes. It's that trof axis passing the shuts off the precip by Tuesday morning. Basically, NBM says a few snow flurries and some light freezing rain for the D-FW area. Euro has .25 to .5" of freezing rain up there and little or no snow.

[Cerlin]

Hi Res models are significantly drier. I figured with how cold it’s going to be that retaining moisture was going to be difficult either way. 12z HRRR still has a crippling ice storm for much of central to North Texas though.

[Brent]

I have tiny flurries here

[Wthrfan]

I have tiny flurries here

Tulsa going to get anything? Looking like a total bust in OKC.

[Gotwood]

Idk why but I have a feeling of optimism as it pertains to winter precipitation. According to the majority of the models moisture will be there in the atmosphere guess it’s just a matter of it getting to the ground.

[txtwister78]

Latest 3km NAM output for freezing rain. Would definitely be enough to create some problems on bridges and overpasses across portions of SC TX Monday morning along with areas just north of I-10. Pockets of sleet setting up across Central & NE Texas.

[Brent]

I have tiny flurries here

Tulsa going to get anything? Looking like a total bust in OKC.

They seem to think maybe a couple inches but I'm very concerned about dry air for sure. The nam is trying to show a heavier band over me but like I said I'm concerned lol

[HockeyTx82]

Wake up boys and girls, it's Christmas morning. AKA in the weather world as Arctic Front Day. Get ready.

Made me think of Frozen..... had AI write me song.

The window is open, so's that door
I didn't know they did that anymore
Who knew we owned eight thousand blankets and coats?
For years I've roamed these empty halls
Why have a heater if no one ever calls?
I'm ready to let the cold air blow

'Cause for the first time in forever
There'll be snow, there'll be ice
For the first time in forever
I'll be dreaming of a white paradise
And I know it's totally crazy
To wear shorts in this weather
But for the first time in forever
I don't care

Don't let them in, don't let them see
Be the good girl you always have to be
Conceal, don't feel, don't let them know
Well, now they know

It's an arctic front, it's an arctic front
Can't hold it back anymore
It's an arctic front, it's an arctic front
Turn away and slam the door
I don't care what they're going to say
Let the storm rage on
The cold never bothered me anyway