Texas Winter 2015-2016

[hriverajr]

Unless something changes, or we get a surprise, winter cancel posts as far as snow may not be far off the mark

[Wntrwthrguy]

We may be lucky to get 150 pages this winter if we don't have substantial changes. Far cry from the past few winters.

[Portastorm]

Unless something changes, or we get a surprise, winter cancel posts as far as snow may not be far off the mark

Good luck with that.

[TheProfessor]

Things are looking bleak for me here, looks like the storm in Early February is going to cut west of me. Heck some parts of Illinois might get severe weather if the GFS were to verify. Good thing is there is still time for the models to shift south and east.

[Portastorm]

Wise words on Twitter from Ryan Maue:

Remember GFS & ECMWF are just one global model run out of 22 or 52 ensembles. Don't base your forecasts on 2% or 4% of available info.

[Brent]

Unless something changes, or we get a surprise, winter cancel posts as far as snow may not be far off the mark

I'll be honest... I know our snowiest time in climo is still ahead, but I'm really starting to wonder if we're going to see much snow this year.. I know things can flip on a dime but I am definitely not impressed or optimistic anymore.

GFS has Dallas pushing 80 to open February...

[hriverajr]

Wise words on Twitter from Ryan Maue:

Remember GFS & ECMWF are just one global model run out of 22 or 52 ensembles. Don't base your forecasts on 2% or 4% of available info.

I have to see those fairly big highs in canada, before I change my tune... hehe

[Yukon Cornelius]

You can honestly tell a lot about winter from mesquite trees and the mesquites around far north tx are showing no signs of any growth of buds starting to form. Winter and its precipitation isn't over until mesquite trees bud.

[Ralph's Weather]

All it takes is one storm or a series in quick succession like at the very end of winter last year to get an above average snowfall winter. I bet just about every winter has had at least one day with a 75+ day in northern Texas west of I-35 especially west of I-35. Just wait for a -AO/-PNA period and we should get our SW bowling ball again. Or even a low forming over the Gulf and travelling north through LA should get us a decent chance.

[wxman57]

Wise words on Twitter from Ryan Maue:

Remember GFS & ECMWF are just one global model run out of 22 or 52 ensembles. Don't base your forecasts on 2% or 4% of available info.

That's the spirit! Go with that one odd ensemble member that predicts a snowstorm for Austin. At least there's a chance (1.4% for 1 in 72 ensemble members)!

On a more serious note, a Texas snowstorm is going to require some colder air than we've already seen across the state. Nothing in the general weather pattern is suggesting such a major pattern change over the next week, at least. The one chance is if that colder Arctic airmass that IS developing over Canada takes a more south than southeast track (like they've been doing). Long-range models say "nope, that cold air is heading southeast for the Great Lakes & eastern U.S., not to Texas", for now.

Though I thought that we (in Houston) might have a good chance at winter-type precip this season, based on the strong El Nino and active southern storm track, I now think that we just won't have enough cold air this far south to get anything but cold rain.

[Lagreeneyes03]

You can honestly tell a lot about winter from mesquite trees and the mesquites around far north tx are showing no signs of any growth of buds starting to form. Winter and its precipitation isn't over until mesquite trees bud.

I don't have Mesquite trees, but my dogwoods have budded as have the live oaks. My roses are flourishing and my husband keeps having to mow.

[wxman57]

I went on a long bike ride yesterday. Saw a lone bluebonnet along the trail, first one of the "spring". My oak is budding, too. Plants are saying "what winter"?

Only 7 weeks until we shift the clocks forward again and I can resume my afternoon/evening bike rides during the week after work. Spring is in the air...

[Portastorm]

Wise words on Twitter from Ryan Maue:

Remember GFS & ECMWF are just one global model run out of 22 or 52 ensembles. Don't base your forecasts on 2% or 4% of available info.

That's the spirit! Go with that one odd ensemble member that predicts a snowstorm for Austin. At least there's a chance (1.4% for 1 in 72 ensemble members)!

On a more serious note, a Texas snowstorm is going to require some colder air than we've already seen across the state. Nothing in the general weather pattern is suggesting such a major pattern change over the next week, at least. The one chance is if that colder Arctic airmass that IS developing over Canada takes a more south than southeast track (like they've been doing). Long-range models say "nope, that cold air is heading southeast for the Great Lakes & eastern U.S., not to Texas", for now.

Though I thought that we (in Houston) might have a good chance at winter-type precip this season, based on the strong El Nino and active southern storm track, I now think that we just won't have enough cold air this far south to get anything but cold rain.

My dear friend, I never said it would snow in Austin. You keep writing that and it's nothing I predicted! My point is that it seems very convenient for certain folks on this forum to buy into model scenarios beyond seven days when it suits their message ... yet at other times insist that we shouldn't count on models beyond 3-4 days. Which is it? You can't have it both ways, buddy.

I'm just going to keep a list here. Wxman57 says NO winter precip for Houston this year and hriverajr says winter is over. Good luck on those forecasts!

[wxman57]

You know I'm just poking you, Portastorm. Have to have a little fun around here with the lack of any significant weather to discuss. I'd LOVE to see some snow this winter, but I'm doubting my pre-season forecast of a good chance of snow this winter. Barring that possibility, I'd like to see 80F+ temps.

[Brent]

You know I'm just poking you, Portastorm. Have to have a little fun around here with the lack of any significant weather to discuss. I'd LOVE to see some snow this winter, but I'm doubting my pre-season forecast of a good chance of snow this winter. Barring that possibility, I'd like to see 80F+ temps.

Shhh... those will be here all too soon as it is.

[Tireman4]

You know I'm just poking you, Portastorm. Have to have a little fun around here with the lack of any significant weather to discuss. I'd LOVE to see some snow this winter, but I'm doubting my pre-season forecast of a good chance of snow this winter. Barring that possibility, I'd like to see 80F+ temps.

Ughhh...no no no....at least this Winter was colder than 2011. I am not sure you can even call that a Winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We have one month left of solid winter left for something to happen in Houston. We havent had a big arctic blast AT ALL really into the U.S. this year. It will happen. Will it bring snow here? No idea. SSW event to come and constant southerly track from storms, i would say our odds for something to happen are better than what they would 'normally' be. Remember '72-'73. Snowed three times after the New Year in Houston alone.

[orangeblood]

Right on cue, the latest Euro weeklies (for the 1st time this winter) look very promising for late week 2 into weeks 3 and 4. Finally getting the - EPO to coincide with a - AO. There is hope on the horizon!!

[wxman57]

Ughhh...no no no....at least this Winter was colder than 2011. I am not sure you can even call that a Winter.

2011? Nah, 1985-1986, now there was a winter. I remember it was sunny all winter. By February, we had highs in the low 90s in Houston. I went swimming in my apartment complex pool in February. Those were the days...

In the Euro long range, I do see some hints of cross-Polar flow in 3-4 weeks (beyond Feb. 15). However, the flow is directed toward Hudson Bay rather than southward toward the Plains. It's a change from the present, anyway.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats perfect if its not directed at us in the LR! Its usually wrong anyway!