Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

This arctic front still seems so weak for January. I remember when I was kid growing up in Houston and have afternoons drop into the upper 20s with freezing drizzle.

1985 Jan (San Antonio snow storm)
1982 Jan (12F Houston).
1989 Feb (freezing drizzle to Galveston).


I am with JB I think next winter could be the coldest we have seen since the 70s.

Let's hope so. With lots of snow for everyone in texas, especially poor portastorm.

[Ntxw]

^ Yup all for Portastorm. Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, El Paso (all the major cities) have seen at least a foot of snow in their known history. Nothing of such for Austin.

9.7 inches on Nov 22-23, 1937 is the most in the city's history.

[srainhoutx]

We will have another Winter RECON mission in the Pacific. Hopefully we will see some improvement via the NCEP models in regards to our upstream activity in the days ahead. With the progressive pattern of storms and fronts every couple of days, guidance will need all the help it can get, IMO...

NOUS42 KNHC 201730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST THU 20 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-050
FOR 21/1200Z WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED

[HockeyTx82]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?more-cold-to-follow.asp

Great video by JB today. Look at all the cold.. BRRRR

Not sure what to make of it. Are there others out there who are saying the same thing about this winter? I mean he was wrong about this winter and he says get ready for worse. From what I read about him he carries some controversy with him, as I am sure others do, but he simply made a forecast based off of what should of happen and it didn't. What about that volcano that blew last year? Any chance that ash cooled us down and threw a cycle off? That and I remember there being more ice last year around the poles I think, would that not cool us down as well in terms of the sun not heating us up as much? I don't know much about how to find out, but it would make sense right?

[Ntxw]

Man, 0z has so much cold air sitting around and waves of energy but none really takes advantage of it. I hope this is an error because that would be such a waste of a chilly air mass!

Btw, GFS bombs a storm just to our east next week (gulf low). Yet another solution for another run.

[Snowman67]

Now that's some cold air.....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

[HockeyTx82]

Now that's some cold air.....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

But if it snows will it stick? I think that it might be to warm............

[orangeblood]

Man, 0z has so much cold air sitting around and waves of energy but none really takes advantage of it. I hope this is an error because that would be such a waste of a chilly air mass!

Btw, GFS bombs a storm just to our east next week (gulf low). Yet another solution for another run.

Not looking good for next week, The west coast ridge is shifting too far east for us to get in on the action. Just dry northwest flow. Blah!!

But JB's superstorm is starting to show some life around the beginning of February.

[Ntxw]

Not looking good for next week, The west coast ridge is shifting too far east for us to get in on the action. Just dry northwest flow. Blah!!

But JB's superstorm is starting to show some life around the beginning of February.

It's still only the GFS afterall. I will concede if the Canadian and ECMWF gives up tonight.

[Snowman67]

Now that's some cold air.....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

But if it snows will it stick? I think that it might be to warm............

I think -40 is plenty cold

[Ntxw]

Sigh Canadian lots of energy, lots of cold, yet no moisture...looks like my forecast for snow next week could be a bust. Still early but we'll see. All this Pacific jet energy is wrecking havoc.

Canadian continues the tease at Portastorm.

[Brandon8181]

Man,..GFS for Texas on Feb 1st and 2nd, sure look nice, wish it would hold up.... doubt it though.

[brewskymc]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?more-cold-to-follow.asp

Great video by JB today. Look at all the cold.. BRRRR

Not sure what to make of it. Are there others out there who are saying the same thing about this winter? I mean he was wrong about this winter and he says get ready for worse. From what I read about him he carries some controversy with him, as I am sure others do, but he simply made a forecast based off of what should of happen and it didn't. What about that volcano that blew last year? Any chance that ash cooled us down and threw a cycle off? That and I remember there being more ice last year around the poles I think, would that not cool us down as well in terms of the sun not heating us up as much? I don't know much about how to find out, but it would make sense right?

I've been reading JB's stuff for years and there is definitely a method to his madness. He does his homework on this stuff... but he misses from time to time, as anyone who is bold enough to put out long range forecast (I mean an actual forecast with verifiable numbers) is bound to. But, more times than not, he does a really good job of nailing down the patterns (if not the individual events/storms)... Many times, he is able to hit the forecast (pattern, not specific events)from several months out.
BTW, the volcano thing is something that he has mentioned many times as being a possible factor... The controversy surrounding him mainly stems from his belief that while human activity (specifically CO2, a very small percentage of which is produced by human activities, and which is a trace gas in our atmosphere) MAY have an affect on our climate, it is nature (ocean cycles, solar cycles, volcanic activity, etc) that is the main driver. His arguments are sensible... Unfortunately, the debate has become so politically charged and agenda driven that anyone who doesn't spout the politically correct version of the "facts" is characterized as being controversial.

[brewskymc]

Man, 0z has so much cold air sitting around and waves of energy but none really takes advantage of it. I hope this is an error because that would be such a waste of a chilly air mass!

Btw, GFS bombs a storm just to our east next week (gulf low). Yet another solution for another run.

I've given up hanging on each new model run... the models giveth and the models taketh away (sometimes on a daily basis).
I'm going back to the perspective that I had coming in when I thought that this was going to be a warm, dry La Nada winter and ANY winter weather would be a bonus.
As you pointed out... the ingredients are there (inexplicably), so there is a better chance than not that we will get some significant winter weather (besides cold) before it is over. Flip-flopping models be damned.

[wxman57]

Interesting 6Z GFS run for the end of the month. 1983-1989-type freeze and snow to the coast. Of course, it's only one run in a model that is flopping all over the place in the long run. Note the temps on the 6Z meteogram for Houston below are NOT highs/lows. They're the midnight and noon temperatures forecast by the 6Z GFS. Note the NOON temperature of 18F on Wed. Feb 2nd:



Lots of snow down south, too:


Will it happen? Probably not. Will I see 80F in the next few weeks? Only indoors if I turn up the heat a lot.

[Ntxw]

Oh Wxman you're such a tease! Trying to keep our hopes alive! It's like you're taunting us! At least the GFS has been somewhat persistent about an early month hoopla. Cruel cruel indeed!

[DentonGal]

Oh Wxman you're such a tease! Trying to keep our hopes alive! It's like you're taunting us! At least the GFS has been somewhat persistent about an early month hoopla. Cruel cruel indeed!

LOL! It doesn't look too bad for DFW either!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/dfwgfsb.png

[Portastorm]

Well, regardless of a lack of snow/ice, this Arctic front has dropped my temps to the lowest of the season so far. Sitting at 23 degrees here at the Portastorm Weather Center in southwest Austin. May even drop another degree or two before ol Sol comes up and warms the landscape.

As for model runs, I'm glad some of you are learning not to get too attached to any particular run unless it is duplicated multiple times and supported by other models. Otherwise, Lucy will snatch the football from you!

[Texas Snowman]

Just an opinion, but IMO, too many chances have occurred and appear likely to occur this winter for cold and winter weather over much of Texas. So far, Panhandle has gotten snow and North and Northeast Texas have had snow. We've all had some cold, just not the "record" or "severe" cold that is talked about for years to come.

But unless the patterns/trends change abruptly, I'd bet that before we get to the middle of March, many, if not most, of us winter weather lovers get something to enjoy.

I'm not good at this either, but patience my friends, patience...

[wxman57]

Oh Wxman you're such a tease! Trying to keep our hopes alive! It's like you're taunting us! At least the GFS has been somewhat persistent about an early month hoopla. Cruel cruel indeed!

Nah, want a real tease? Take a look at the same GFS run for DFW. Note that the temps there are NOT highs/lows. A NOON temp of 9F on Feb 2 with probably 5-10" snow on the ground. Morning low probably below zero on the 2nd.