Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

From Steve McCauley:

Many of you have commented on hearing about a "polar vortex" and the resulting bitterly cold air moving in during the last days of December or the first couple of days of the new year. Obviously that did not happen. And I am happy to say the Stat Method continues to call for no bitterly cold Arctic Air intrusions for the foreseeable future for us.

When I was driving back from West Virginia, I was listening to an interview with a prominent forecaster who last fall was calling for a bitterly cold and icy winter across much of the country, including our area, reminiscent of the winter of 1977 when freezing temperatures and even snow made it down to Miami!

And though none of this has come true, keep in mind we still have February to get through. But so far, there does not appear to be anything in the data to suggest this will happen .... yet. My palm trees have not even gone dormant this winter!

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with Mr. McCauley and his faulty logic. These forecasts he refers to about bitter cold impacting us in late December or early January must have been made by amateurs or very poorly skilled meteorologists. The folks I follow have consistently said that the polar vortex disruptions and sudden stratospheric warming event would be slow to transpire and the real weather impacts would take weeks to play out. The message has been consistent from the pros in that any downstream impacts in the CONUS wouldn't happen until mid January or later .... IF they happen. Because these folks also acknowledge that our understanding of these events is still developing.

So, to say that a major pattern change to cold isn't going to occur because some bad forecasts to begin with didn't verify ... well, that is faulty logic in my book. Furthermore, Mr. McCauley does not give us a time frame for when the "prominent forecaster" he heard on the radio or wherever expected the bitterly cold weather. I'm guessing it was probably Joe Bastardi he heard but who knows.

[Ntxw]

From Steve McCauley:

Many of you have commented on hearing about a "polar vortex" and the resulting bitterly cold air moving in during the last days of December or the first couple of days of the new year. Obviously that did not happen. And I am happy to say the Stat Method continues to call for no bitterly cold Arctic Air intrusions for the foreseeable future for us.

When I was driving back from West Virginia, I was listening to an interview with a prominent forecaster who last fall was calling for a bitterly cold and icy winter across much of the country, including our area, reminiscent of the winter of 1977 when freezing temperatures and even snow made it down to Miami!

And though none of this has come true, keep in mind we still have February to get through. But so far, there does not appear to be anything in the data to suggest this will happen .... yet. My palm trees have not even gone dormant this winter!

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with Mr. McCauley and his faulty logic. These forecasts he refers to about bitter cold impacting us in late December or early January must have been made by amateurs or very poorly skilled meteorologists. The folks I follow have consistently said that the polar vortex disruptions and sudden stratospheric warming event would be slow to transpire and the real weather impacts would take weeks to play out. The message has been consistent from the pros in that any downstream impacts in the CONUS wouldn't happen until mid January or later .... IF they happen. Because these folks also acknowledge that our understanding of these events is still developing.

So, to say that a major pattern change to cold isn't going to occur because some bad forecasts to begin with didn't verify ... well, that is faulty logic in my book. Furthermore, Mr. McCauley does not give us a time frame for when the "prominent forecaster" he heard on the radio or wherever expected the bitterly cold weather. I'm guessing it was probably Joe Bastardi he heard but who knows.

I partially agree but we do have to understand McCauley's stat method first. It is not a true forecast as far as what I have been told. It is likely a composite blend of all (or favored models) weighed differently. None yet has shown bitter cold air making it to Texas at this time. So in short his stat method is only as good as the models see it. Kind of like an ensemble mean.

[Snowflake7]

Any good news for DFW or do we get stiffed again??? Wheres the love winter?????? These darn mosquitoes have to GO! I see that down south will get some love but we are completely left out.

I saw a yellow jacket at lunch today. He must have thought that the 70+ degrees today meant he could come out of hibernation.

I shouldn't be surprised at all considering we've had this luck a few years in a row. Do you think we still have a chance at winter? By winter I mean snow lol

[amawea]

From Steve McCauley:

Many of you have commented on hearing about a "polar vortex" and the resulting bitterly cold air moving in during the last days of December or the first couple of days of the new year. Obviously that did not happen. And I am happy to say the Stat Method continues to call for no bitterly cold Arctic Air intrusions for the foreseeable future for us.

When I was driving back from West Virginia, I was listening to an interview with a prominent forecaster who last fall was calling for a bitterly cold and icy winter across much of the country, including our area, reminiscent of the winter of 1977 when freezing temperatures and even snow made it down to Miami!

And though none of this has come true, keep in mind we still have February to get through. But so far, there does not appear to be anything in the data to suggest this will happen .... yet. My palm trees have not even gone dormant this winter!

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with Mr. McCauley and his faulty logic. These forecasts he refers to about bitter cold impacting us in late December or early January must have been made by amateurs or very poorly skilled meteorologists. The folks I follow have consistently said that the polar vortex disruptions and sudden stratospheric warming event would be slow to transpire and the real weather impacts would take weeks to play out. The message has been consistent from the pros in that any downstream impacts in the CONUS wouldn't happen until mid January or later .... IF they happen. Because these folks also acknowledge that our understanding of these events is still developing.

So, to say that a major pattern change to cold isn't going to occur because some bad forecasts to begin with didn't verify ... well, that is faulty logic in my book. Furthermore, Mr. McCauley does not give us a time frame for when the "prominent forecaster" he heard on the radio or wherever expected the bitterly cold weather. I'm guessing it was probably Joe Bastardi he heard but who knows.

I agree Portastorm. My first thought was, I bet he's talking about JB. JB is a cold mongerer just like a lot of us and he is cold biased in his winter forecast, albeit mostly in regards to the northeast part of the country where he lives. I still think we will get some really cold weather as do many meteorologist, just a late winter I think.

[Ntxw]

930s mb Pacific (western Aleutians) bombogenesis just happened. Not a lot of talk on this but it is a sig event. Coming cross polar flow is an indirect participant and amplified Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1083388253372338177

[MississippiWx]

I see that both the GFS & Euro are indicating some cross-Polar flow starting around the 14th-15th. That would bring some much colder air southward through Canada. Fortunately, my wall will be finished by next week - and I'm getting the Canadians to pay for it!

I’m pretty sure everyone here would wish you to go to hell. I hear it’s warm enough there for you.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I see that both the GFS & Euro are indicating some cross-Polar flow starting around the 14th-15th. That would bring some much colder air southward through Canada. Fortunately, my wall will be finished by next week - and I'm getting the Canadians to pay for it!

Pony up Canadians

Glad to hear winter is finally arriving.

[bubba hotep]

El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.

It will be interesting to see what happens, '14/15 event and then the following super wet '15 for parts of Texas come to mind.

[snowballzzz]

I think some of you forgot that we have at LEAST 2 more months of Winter weather chances..

[Lagreeneyes03]

El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.

Thinking ahead, this will definitely have impacts on the tropical forecasts. El Nino has been forecast for a few years now and fails to materialize. Why?

[spencer817]

El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.

Thinking ahead, this will definitely have impacts on the tropical forecasts. El Nino has been forecast for a few years now and fails to materialize. Why?

One of my theories was that the atmosphere is still recovering from the Super Nino. Not sure if this occurred during other super ninos though

Update: The other three events of similar nature (+2.0C) were 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, looks like all took awhile (3+ years after the event transpired back to neutral) to go back into Nino state.

[Ntxw]

El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.

Thinking ahead, this will definitely have impacts on the tropical forecasts. El Nino has been forecast for a few years now and fails to materialize. Why?

One of my theories was that the atmosphere is still recovering from the Super Nino. Not sure if this occurred during other super ninos though

Update: The other three events of similar nature (+2.0C) were 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, looks like all took awhile (3+ years after the event transpired back to neutral) to go back into Nino state.

It isn't entirely accurate that the Nino failed. 5 trimonthlies is requirement for an El Nino and we are actively in the fourth one. The weeklies are still Nino value. What the message is that in Spring we will see it weaken as most events do. Beyond that is a guessing game.

[bubba hotep]

12z models were pretty bleh through D10.

[Cpv17]

12z models were pretty bleh through D10.

Yep, the operationals have all been that way the past few runs. Best op run was the 6z FV3 a couple mornings ago..by far.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

While they were bleh, one thing i noticed is the PV is situated in a favorable spot to send down some cold. (Hudson Bay region.)

The 12z GFS @ 384 showed the arctic flood gates pouring in, but I think the fact that the PV will be in a favorable position within 7 days, where its skill is much better, is a positive. All models seem to agree that the PV will be in this position within 7 days time.

Now, this does not mean cold within 7 days by any means, but with the PV in place near Hudson Bay, dynamically, it could be favorable for cold to build and be sent down into the CONUS.

[Cpv17]

While they were bleh, one thing i noticed is the PV is situated in a favorable spot to send down some cold. (Hudson Bay region.)

The 12z GFS @ 384 showed the arctic flood gates pouring in, but I think the fact that the PV will be in a favorable position within 7 days, where its skill is much better, is a positive. All models seem to agree that the PV will be in this position within 7 days time.

Now, this does not mean cold within 7 days by any means, but with the PV in place near Hudson Bay, dynamically, it could be favorable for cold to build and be sent down into the CONUS.

This looks good to me. I just say the models have been blah the past few runs cuz I haven’t really seen any massive high pressures or big winter weather events for us on them yet besides a couple runs from the FV3 a couple days ago.

[orangeblood]

While they were bleh, one thing i noticed is the PV is situated in a favorable spot to send down some cold. (Hudson Bay region.)

The 12z GFS @ 384 showed the arctic flood gates pouring in, but I think the fact that the PV will be in a favorable position within 7 days, where its skill is much better, is a positive. All models seem to agree that the PV will be in this position within 7 days time.

Now, this does not mean cold within 7 days by any means, but with the PV in place near Hudson Bay, dynamically, it could be favorable for cold to build and be sent down into the CONUS.

Yep, PV settles into a favorable spot but have to turn off the Pacific air train before we get true Arctic Air into our neck of the woods....once a system digs in east of Hawaii and helps pop the Rex Block cutting off Pacific Air, we'll be in business. Until then its probably mixed Pacific and Canadian air that's a little too warm for wintry weather in Texas!

[Shoshana]

Just watched JB's morning video. He's still very confident it's coming.

This second half of Jan fip to cold and wintery for the Southern Plains is and has been for a while a pretty safe bet. Now making bets on any given storm to produce is unreasonable, but I have high confidence that we will see winter storms between 1/20 & 3/10 over much of the Southern Plains.

Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.

Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!

[Cpv17]

The CPC is beginning to hint at the colder temps.

[weatherdude1108]

This second half of Jan fip to cold and wintery for the Southern Plains is and has been for a while a pretty safe bet. Now making bets on any given storm to produce is unreasonable, but I have high confidence that we will see winter storms between 1/20 & 3/10 over much of the Southern Plains.

Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.

Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!

Bluebonnets??? Where? I tried google searching it and didn't find anything. That would be a first!