Texas Winter 2015-2016

[EnnisTx]

Depending on when you're down there and where you're gonna be, some parades roll starting Wednesday next week.

Near the convention center, going to a concert at the House of Blues as well.

One of these days, I want to visit New Orleans during Marti Gras. Never been to New Orleans. Looks like a fun, happening place!

Yep, there just in time for the parades.... the best part is it a business trip and they are paying my way, so work during the day and play at night! I say that but not sure my old rear can handle that.

[Ntxw]

It's official, 2015 was the wettest year on record for the state of Texas. Oklahoma too.



Won't be seeing that again for a looong time

[South Texas Storms]

What a year it was. I'm very thankful for all of the rain that we received last year. It's so nice to see the drought map showing all of the state in no drought category. I'm hopeful for another wet year in 2016!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That drought seems so far away now. With La nina coming though, dont want to get too excited at the moment.

[Brent]

It's official, 2015 was the wettest year on record for the state of Texas. Oklahoma too.

Won't be seeing that again for a looong time

What's still amazing to me is despite how wet 2015 was... we still had that record dry streak in the summer and then had no rain til near the end of October and still set a record on rainfall for the month...

[somethingfunny]

I live too close to Duck Creek in Garland to ever want to see that much rainfall again.

[wxman57]

Model trends are farther north with the upper low Mon/Tue of next week. Snow as far south as northern OK. Nothing for Texas. No significant cold on the horizon (through 10-15 days).

[Ntxw]

It will keep going south, GFS places the SURFACE low too far north, bank it . How did December's blizzard work out for Kansas? Zilch after blizzard warnings . Euro clearly has been digging into Old Mexico, youre not getting a colorado surface low out of that!

[Portastorm]

Every morning I wake up hoping the overnight GFS and/or Euro runs will show something worth getting excited about. And every morning I see that it doesn't happen. Instead, I get wxman57 posts rubbing it in.

[TheProfessor]

It will keep going south, GFS places the SURFACE low too far north, bank it . How did December's blizzard work out for Kansas? Zilch after blizzard warnings . Euro clearly has been digging into Old Mexico, youre not getting a colorado surface low out of that!

That first system will be very important, if rising heights can be subdued then the first system (which might be stronger than modeled) could lay a baroclinic zone that allows for the main system to dig further south than modeled. It also seems that if the storm goes neg tilt too fast it will cut Northeast before it can fully dig.

[Portastorm]

On another note, according to one of the TV mets in the Austin area, temperatures here since October 1st have averaged 1.97 degrees ABOVE normal. Thankfully the precip has been about 7-8" above normal as well during that timeframe. I guess it goes to show that every Nino is different.

[Ntxw]

That first system will be very important, if rising heights can be subdued then the first system (which might be stronger than modeled) could lay a baroclinic zone that allows for the main system to dig further south than modeled. It also seems that if the storm goes neg tilt too fast it will cut Northeast before it can fully dig.

It happens over and over again and again. We see this so many times in winter. The models place the surface low in the wrong area. Coastal Texas loves to draw in surface lows. Period. Especially if the base of troughs dig near the US/Mexican border. I can't tell you how many times Kansas has been robbed of snowstorms because of this. In the fall and spring it's different the jet mean doesn't dip into old Mexico so that would be valid for a Colorado low genesis.

[wxman57]

Every morning I wake up hoping the overnight GFS and/or Euro runs will show something worth getting excited about. And every morning I see that it doesn't happen. Instead, I get wxman57 posts rubbing it in.

Sorry for the daily dose of reality. The air across the U.S. just isn't cold enough for snow so far south, and time is running out for the pattern to change. The trend with the Monday/Tuesday upper low (and surface low) is farther north, not south. I was hoping to see some snow in Houston this winter, given the 1970s analogs, but that doesn't appear likely. You're not going to see any snow this winter in Austin, either.

I'm wondering if next week might be the coldest week of the rest of the winter, and not too cold at that. Maybe upper 20s for D-FW and a light freeze or two for Houston. Long-range Euro ensembles indicate warming in Canada beyond the 4th of February.

[wxman57]

That first system will be very important, if rising heights can be subdued then the first system (which might be stronger than modeled) could lay a baroclinic zone that allows for the main system to dig further south than modeled. It also seems that if the storm goes neg tilt too fast it will cut Northeast before it can fully dig.

It happens over and over again and again. We see this so many times in winter. The models place the surface low in the wrong area. Coastal Texas loves to draw in surface lows. Period. Especially if the base of troughs dig near the US/Mexican border. I can't tell you how many times Kansas has been robbed of snowstorms because of this. In the fall and spring it's different the jet mean doesn't dip into old Mexico so that would be valid for a Colorado low genesis.

In order for a low to form along the TX coast, there must be a baroclinic zone (front) in the Gulf. Typically, the front is oriented east-west across the northern Gulf and the western end dips down along the coast of Mexico. When the vorticity max reaches west Texas, the low then forms east of Brownsville.

however, next week's setup is not good for a coastal low. With a strong low-level jet, the warm front will be driven well north of the Gulf. This increases the risk for thunderstorms (possibly severe) along the front but eliminates the chance of a coastal low due to the lack of a baroclinic zone in the Gulf on which the low would form.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Go ahead and start a Texas Summer 2016 thread. This winter is a dud.

[Ralph's Weather]

It will keep going south, GFS places the SURFACE low too far north, bank it . How did December's blizzard work out for Kansas? Zilch after blizzard warnings . Euro clearly has been digging into Old Mexico, youre not getting a colorado surface low out of that!

Should lay down another 12"+ in the Sangres of NM for me. Maybe even get some along I-40 for the drive up next week after the storm.

[Ralph's Weather]

I got to 28 yesterday and 26 today. This winter has featured many nights in the 26-29 range, but only one below that. Next week should provide low 20s, but without the system dropping snows further south teens will likely stay in OK.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

33 here at TPB weather center tied our lowest temp of the season. Havent hit 32F officially yet this year.

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS ensemble hinting at something interesting for the second week of Feb. I will keep a close eye on that because I don't wanna be driving through a Plains blizzard on my return trip.

[wxman57]

Mixed precip in the D-FW area on the 12Z GFS!