Texas Winter 2018-2019
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
There is the winter that we've grown to love here in Texas, suppression!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...
lol Rick Mitchell did tease that there are "signs of cold" after the 10 day of 50s and 60s
I'll believe it when I see it
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...
Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
18z GFS brings down big time cold again at the end of the run. Lets see what 0z says.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
South Texas Storms wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...
Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.
It's impressive how stable the -EPO/-AO/-NAO look is once it gets established. That should allow for numerous winter wx chances across Texas, into the SE and up the EC.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
You can always trust the GFS 360+ hr charts. Of course the "new" GFS has sunny and mild for TX at hr 336...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
your really enjoying this..hehe.... I will believe it when I see it.. past few winters for the most part have had a dearth of really cold air in canada or at least a mechanism to bring it down for the most part. Correct me if I am wrong.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
weatherdude1108 wrote:Shoshana wrote:Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.
Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!
Bluebonnets??? Where? I tried google searching it and didn't find anything. That would be a first!
Facebook, Texas Wildflower Report group, picture taken NW Austin
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
January SOI is a complete reversal from December. Gaining more confidence wholesale changes coming to North America. Well stated here, cold air is building in Canada with cross-polar flow. Spillage first in the plains and then the east. Actually we are looking at well timed oscillations coming together nearing climatological peak of activity in winter. All of the Ensembles are in good agreement the continent will cool significantly. It's a favorable pattern for strong high pressure domes.
WPO and EPO both now forecast negative, unloading cold air into North America. -AO (SSW) will allow southward progress.
WPO and EPO both now forecast negative, unloading cold air into North America. -AO (SSW) will allow southward progress.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- northjaxpro
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...
Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.
It's impressive how stable the -EPO/-AO/-NAO look is once it gets established. That should allow for numerous winter wx chances across Texas, into the SE and up the EC.
Yes. I. agree. I would also include potentially the Gulf Coast as well. The pattern definitely could favor a winter storm to affect many in the South coming up with an active southern stream interacting with all of the arctic air poised to come south in the coming weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:January SOI is a complete reversal from December. Gaining more confidence wholesale changes coming to North America. Well stated here, cold air is building in Canada with cross-polar flow. Spillage first in the plains and then the east. Actually we are looking at well timed oscillations coming together nearing climatological peak of activity in winter. All of the Ensembles are in good agreement the continent will cool significantly. It's a favorable pattern for strong high pressure domes.
WPO and EPO both now forecast negative, unloading cold air into North America. -AO (SSW) will allow southward progress.
Spot on, the most intriguing part to me is the timing of this pattern change....the maturation of the seasonal jet this time of year could lock in this pattern for several weeks (40-60 days)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Only February flip I can think of is 89. That was a Nina year though. Not being a pessimist. Just thinking out loud.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Quixotic wrote:Only February flip I can think of is 89. That was a Nina year though. Not being a pessimist. Just thinking out loud.
I will correct myself and call 2015 a flip. That was a nino year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
And 2015 had precedent as there were cold outbreaks before we hit the jackpot. If we are looking for late season miracles I would call: 85, 87 (snowstorm in April!), 89 and 15. Two ninos and two Ninas. I’d be a lot more confident this year if we had a breakout or two this winter before now. TBH, I got a 94-95 feel going on. A lot of potential with nothing but 38 degrees and thunderstorms going on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Interesting.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Shoshana wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:Shoshana wrote:
Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!
Bluebonnets??? Where? I tried google searching it and didn't find anything. That would be a first!
Facebook, Texas Wildflower Report group, picture taken NW Austin
Just saw that. That's wild! I have seen them in February before, but never seen one in January.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
dhweather wrote:Interesting.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png
Can you interpret this please?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:dhweather wrote:Interesting.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png
Can you interpret this please?
taking it at face value just a cold front for most of us, snow is pretty far north
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