Texas Winter 2014-2015

[ndale]

32 here and light rain, no ice yet

[Ralph's Weather]

Been at or below freezing for a couple hours. I expect just about all precip to stay well south of I-20 tomorrow, but a few flurries can't be ruled out further north in the cold air. Saturday night could get very interesting especially if we make it into the 20s.

[bigddstranny]

It was 31.9 at 6:40 in my 'hood. Now it's 33.3

[dhweather]

31.8 in Heath, and bone freaking dry. DP up to 19, still south winds, barometer at 30.304 - .48 inches lower than this time last night.

[weatherdude1108]

33f now and some of the rain that fell earlier froze on my car. So I have ice splotches.[/quote]

I didn't have ice on my car leaving work (just liquid), but had some ice patches on a tarp in our backyard after that light rain fell late this afternoon.

[Shoshana]

Seems to be getting warmer. 35 now and I don't see anything falling. Guess I'll rest up for the next round later on today.... Okay, next possible round.

[SouthernMet]

CMC has precip for Austin while temps are sitting at 26-27 friday night - saturday morning.

Most other models show later onset (9am-noon) which would be far less significant.

[Ralph's Weather]

So far the precip is staying mainly south of the freezing temps in East Texas. The line of precip is a bit further north than shown on the models so Tyler may get in on the sleet and maybe flurries along I-20 later this morning.

[SouthernMet]

RAP has a band of precip moving through Austin /San Antonio around midnight tonight. GFS/RGEM/NAM have temps in the upper 20's at midnight for Austin/Georgetown

Edit : I think we need to watch the Midnight tonight through noon tomorrow period very closely in the Hill country & central tx.

[hriverajr]

Interesting to note.. The Baja low is finally moving it would appear at a decent clip to the east.

[wxman57]

Portastorm, it appears you have a new avatar for the next 2 weeks. Warm advection began by late afternoon and caused the temperature to rise all night. Both airports were reporting 37.9F at 6am today. I hope to fully convert you to a heat miser when I see you in March...

KAUS| |091153|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|030|006|000|30.36|3|OVC|

KATT| |091151|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|000|003|000|30.36|3|OVC|

Here are the full decoded plots from overnight starting at 9pm. AUS rose to 36F by 0453Z (11:53pm) and peaked at 37.9F between 2am and 6am. Very similar at ATT:

KAUS| |091353|35.1F|32.0F|88.5%|020|007|000|30.42|999|OVC|Light Drizzle , Mist
KAUS| |091253|37.0F|28.9F|72.2%|040|006|000|30.39|999|OVC|Light Drizzle , Mist
KAUS| |091153|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|030|006|000|30.36|3|OVC|
KAUS| |091053|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|040|006|000|30.34|999|OVC|
KAUS| |090953|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|070|004|000|30.32|999|OVC|
KAUS| |090853|37.9F|24.1F|57.0%|000|000|000|30.32|1|OVC|
KAUS| |090753|37.9F|24.1F|57.0%|000|000|000|30.32|999|OVC|
KAUS| |090653|37.0F|24.1F|59.1%|180|003|000|30.31|999|OVC|
KAUS| |090639|37.0F|23.0F|56.4%|190|003|000|30.31|999|BKN|
KAUS| |090553|37.0F|23.0F|56.4%|180|006|000|30.30|5|BKN|
KAUS| |090453|36.0F|21.9F|56.3%|180|007|000|30.29|999|BKN|
KAUS| |090353|35.1F|21.9F|58.3%|180|006|000|30.32|999|OVC|
KAUS| |090253|34.0F|21.0F|58.6%|170|004|000|30.33|6|BKN|

KATT| |091351|35.1F|32.0F|88.5%|030|003|000|30.43|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KATT| |091251|37.0F|28.0F|69.6%|000|000|000|30.39|999|OVC|
KATT| |091151|37.9F|25.0F|59.2%|000|003|000|30.36|3|OVC|
KATT| |091051|37.9F|24.1F|57.0%|000|000|000|30.35|999|OVC|
KATT| |090951|37.9F|24.1F|57.0%|000|000|000|30.33|999|OVC|
KATT| |090851|37.9F|24.1F|57.0%|000|000|000|30.32|1|OVC|
KATT| |090751|37.0F|24.1F|59.1%|000|000|000|30.32|999|OVC|
KATT| |090651|37.0F|23.0F|56.4%|160|003|000|30.31|999|OVC|
KATT| |090603|36.0F|21.9F|56.3%|000|000|000|30.31|999|OVC|
KATT| |090551|36.0F|23.0F|58.9%|000|003|000|30.31|5|OVC|
KATT| |090513|36.0F|21.9F|56.3%|000|003|000|30.30|999|BKN|
KATT| |090451|35.1F|21.0F|56.1%|180|004|000|30.30|999|BKN|
KATT| |090351|35.1F|21.0F|56.1%|190|003|000|30.32|999|BKN|
KATT| |090327|35.1F|19.9F|53.6%|000|003|000|30.33|999|OVC|
KATT| |090251|34.0F|19.0F|53.8%|190|004|000|30.33|6|FEW|

:uarrow:

Fair enough ... but here is how crazy I am about this one ... I'm so confident I'll be correct (i.e. the temperature in Austin tomorrow morning at 6 am will be BELOW 36 degrees) that if I am wrong, I will use this image as my avatar for two weeks!

[wxman57]

The variable weather pattern continues:

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/Untitled_zps99731837.png

I will soon take over the weather controls...

Surface obs indicate temps mostly above freezing where it's raining. Some light sleet around Waco.

Here's a meteogram from the 12z GFS for Austin. Dropping to 31 tonight after the precip ends. Rising above freezing after the precip begins Sunday morning. Going to be close as far as freezing rain there. Probably icing on elevated surfaces/bridges.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold and wet weather for the next several days.

Threat for freezing rain and ice is limited across the area.

Secondary arctic frontal boundary is approaching the region from the north and will move through over the next several hours. Overnight warm air advection (southerly winds) did the trick by warming dewpoints into the mid 30’s (+10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago) while surface temperatures only fell 2-3 degrees. This effectively negated any freezing temperatures over the area preventing any freezing rain. Light rain and drizzle will continue through mid to late morning before onset of next surge of cold air which will advect in another very dry low level air mass (dewpoints back into the lower 20’s by tonight).

Upper level storm system near Baja will begin to slowly move eastward into TX Saturday with large scale lift increasing. Surface dewpoints Saturday morning (midnight-1000am) will be low across the region and this time cold air advection will be ongoing at the surface instead of warm air advection. If the atmosphere were to precipitate during this period then the opposite effect of this morning would happen with the air temperature cooling toward the dewpoint (evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature). This only happens if it is precipitating long and hard enough to allow this process to take place. Models show a strong dry layer in the lowest 100mb of the air mass through the critical period of Saturday morning and this layer should effectively evaporate any falling precipitation and prevent it from reaching the ground. Overall the onset of light rain is out of phase with the potential for maximum wet bulb cooling Saturday morning. Rainfall will onset with the arrival of strong lift after about 1000am and more likely after noon when the surface temperature will be warming into the mid and upper 30’s and stronger warm air advection will be in progress above the surface…end result is a very cold rain.

With all that said…will maintain a very slight threat for freezing rain west of a line from Edna to Columbus to College Station to Crockett just in case the rainfall does onset a few hours earlier and the evaporative cooling reduces the air temperature to near freezing for a few hours. If this were to happen surface temperature would only fall to 31-32 allowing some very minor ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. This chance is remote but not non-zero.

Will be done with any threats of winter precipitation Saturday afternoon in favor of just cold rain and cold temperatures for the next several days. Overall pattern changes little with several upper air disturbances expected to cross the region producing periods of rainfall. Strongest system will be Saturday night and Sunday with widespread rain expected. Temperatures will remain cold with clouds and rainfall keeping any warming trend muted. Another front arrives Monday and the entire process starts again with the next upper air disturbance moving across on Tuesday and Wednesday with more rainfall. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s and 50’s for highs through next Wednesday with 30’s and 40’s for lows with cloudy skies and periods of rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 26 overnight before rising to 32 now. The band of precip is about 30 miles south of me and will prob stay that way for this morning.

[wxman57]

Here you go, Portastorm. I made you an avatar-sized image (for your new avatar):

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

wxman57, any chance you can scare up a metrogram for KADS or KDAL?

[wxman57]

wxman57, any chance you can scare up a metrogram for KADS or KDAL?

Here you go. No precip today. Light rain with temps above freezing tomorrow. Only icing may be on elevated surfaces/bridges (if any). The 00Z Euro is not as cold as the GFS.

[TheProfessor]

Wxman57 I need you to use your magical heat powers to keep snow/ice off the ground From Dallas to San Antonio on the weekend of the 23-25, I'll be heading down to San Antonio to the very first PAX (Penny Arcade Exposition) South event.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

wxman57, any chance you can scare up a metrogram for KADS or KDAL?

Here you go. No precip today. Light rain with temps above freezing tomorrow. Only icing may be on elevated surfaces/bridges (if any). The 00Z Euro is not as cold as the GFS.

Thanks, o great one! Are the template and tutorial still available? I'm ready to learn this skill on my own.

[wxman57]

wxman57, any chance you can scare up a metrogram for KADS or KDAL?

Here you go. No precip today. Light rain with temps above freezing tomorrow. Only icing may be on elevated surfaces/bridges (if any). The 00Z Euro is not as cold as the GFS.

Thanks, o great one! Are the template and tutorial still available? I'm ready to learn this skill on my own.

Yep, here's the link. From start to finish I can make one in 30 seconds. Someone else posted a link to a spreadsheet that gathers the data automatically, but I never got it to work as well as the "manual" method:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

Of course, you can go to the data website and let it make the meteogram for you, but the temps will be in Celsius.

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

Here's a sample of the website's meteogram. I just get the raw data there and roll my own.