Texas Winter 2016-2017

[vbhoutex]

00Z EC confines the snow to the northern TX Panhandle Fri/Sat. We should start seeing some model agreement pretty soon, as the possible event is only 3-4 days away.

What are your thoughts on the temperatures(real, not what you want ) in SE TX? If I blend what I am seeing I'm thinking we may get into the mid 20s on Saturday morning. I figure we need another Christmas Eve type of surprise for any precipitation with the cold in SE TX.

[TwisterFanatic]

What about Oklahoma on the Euro?

[Brent]

Interesting graphic from CBS in Dallas

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 12z NAM breaks out some precip starting Friday morning in southeast Texas and the precip shield expands into central/north central Texas by later in the day. However, the amounts are very light and considering the NAM is always precip happy anyhow ... not sure how much stock one can take in it. Regardless, it does look like some type of overrunning event may be in the cards for parts of Texas late this week.

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro EPS was a slight step in the right direction but not overly encouraging.

[Ntxw]

Not much fanfare but cold front coming through dfw. Winds kicking up

[CaptinCrunch]

We had our share of very cold temperatures back in December, but this arctic air was fleeting. DFW finished 2016 as the 3rd warmest year on record by average temperature. By low temperatures, in fact, DFW was the warmest on record! Precipitation was near-normal at just over 35 inches, but July 4th did see a deluge with over 3 inches of rain recorded.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Despite the Super Nino relaxing into a neutral state, the atmosphere still resembled the torchy Nino until late November.

By the way, we will not see a La Nina in 2017. It looks like we are moving to a Warm Neutral or Weak Nino.

[OKMet83]

Guys remember some of our biggest events both in N TX and OK have come as surprises at the last minute. All the data combined I'm very suspicious that this turns into a high-impact event
for at least portions of the SRN Plains by Friday. Unlike some other Mets I believe the GFS might actually be closer to being right on this event, not saying it's always right I know the record but
just my feelings.. We shall see how things evolve with today's runs..

[stormlover2013]

wed we will know, models have a hard time with figuring out how cold this air mass will be!!! this will give us something to watch..

[Ntxw]

Why are we not discussing the front? It is the front right now!

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

A stormy start to 2017…very nice today…cold air mass arrives tomorrow.

Cold arctic air mass is surging down the high plains this morning and an initial highly modified piece of this air mass will cross SE TX tonight. Before the front arrives tonight…another day of warm temperatures with highs in the 70’s across all of the area. Today will be the last day of 70’s for at least the next week.

Shallow modified arctic boundary arrives tonight with cold air advection ongoing tonight into Wednesday. Shallow air mass being overrun by warm air just above the surface will result in the formation of a stratus deck which will help keep highs on Wednesday in the 50’s or about 20 degrees colder than today. Not expecting any rainfall with the front given a very dry air mass that will be in place.

Secondary and much colder arctic surge will arrive Thursday and usher in daytime temperatures likely falling into the lower 40’s under increasing NW winds. Friday will be cold with lows in the 30’s and highs near 40 and these temperatures may be generously warm given the tendency of models to show higher values within arctic air masses.

Friday into Saturday models are starting to come into better agreement that a strong short wave will drop SE in the NW flow aloft and across NE TX and the southern US. With a cold arctic air mass in place the lift provided by this system may produce a large swatch of mixed precipitation from TX eastward across the southern US. Main question at this time is how much moisture is able to be brought northward into the cold air mass and just how cold will the air mass be especially late Friday into early Saturday. For now will continue to keep everything a very cold rain across all of SE TX, but will need to watch temperature trends very closely from College Station to Lake Livingston during this period for any threat for freezing rain although this potential still remains low at this time.

[stormlover2013]

you are the guru, Start the discussing, tell us what you see

[stormlover2013]

I do know that meteorologist will not jump the gun on this!!! They will wait till the day of to talk about wintry mix if it could happen. It's so hard to forecast down here.

[Ntxw]

you are the guru, Start the discussing, tell us what you see

DFW was near 60 a few hours earlier, 50 now and blustery/cloudy. Bigger cold is lagging a way away but no less is the leading edge.

[stormlover2013]

be interesting to see if this front is colder then what it's supposed to be.

[Ntxw]

GFS is looking more and more like the Euro with the suppressed look. DFW lucks out ths run with a light band of snow, while the euro was slightly further east/se

[OKMet83]

I don't like trend with last couple runs though.. 700mb and 850mb are not on same page and cutting off moisture.. most snow out west.. dry slotting main body of Oklahoma into N TX. Still early though as has been said we will likely see several more swings before things are finally set... So hang tight and get the popcorn ready! lol

[Ntxw]

I do like the vorticity coming out of NM as I was saying earlier in the week. I would take our chances in this set up vs stronger up north. Hope for surface moisture once the winds go e/se. This is pretty good dice roll deeper into Texas. How the s/w comes out helps

[wxman57]

00Z EC confines the snow to the northern TX Panhandle Fri/Sat. We should start seeing some model agreement pretty soon, as the possible event is only 3-4 days away.

What are your thoughts on the temperatures(real, not what you want ) in SE TX? If I blend what I am seeing I'm thinking we may get into the mid 20s on Saturday morning. I figure we need another Christmas Eve type of surprise for any precipitation with the cold in SE TX.

Well, 00Z Euro indicates 28-29 Saturday morning in northern Harris county, and 32 down to southern Harris county. Temperatures only 39-41 by noon across Harris County (no biking for me!). High only around 44-45 Saturday. Low Sunday 28-31 across the county, climbing to the mid 40s by noon and around 50 for the high. Any precip ends Friday night well before temps near freezing. That doesn't preclude the possibility of light sleet as the precip ends (not forecasting that yet), but any snow here seems quite unlikely.

I think that the only "Christmas Eve Miracle" you would see is me briefly leaving the house this coming weekend.