Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[TexasStooge]

You guys are wrong. The Ohio State surface map says it is -4 in Dallas, just click on the link.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

I think somebody there anticipated the front sooner than they should...either that or they meant to type in '7' but instead typed in the '-' key. Oh well, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

It seems there will be some ice accumulations after all. After it's all said and done, accumulations may total up to an inch...but I don't think that's enough to closed down the schools/businesses all day here in DFW.

Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth
Thursday: 36°F
Thursday Night: 32°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Sherman
Thursday: 34°F
Thursday Night: 22°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Wichita Falls
Thursday: 34°F
Thursday Night: 20°F

[cheezyWXguy]

no way in hell our low is gonna be 32 when the high is 36 and eveyone else drops to 20...i think the low is gonna be about 21, 22,23 or something and friday is gonna be a lot cooler than expected...downtown areas, sure...places 1 hour away from the cities, naw

[cheezyWXguy]

You guys are wrong. The Ohio State surface map says it is -4 in Dallas, just click on the link.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

I think somebody there anticipated the front sooner than they should...either that or they meant to type in '7' but instead typed in the '-' key. Oh well, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

It seems there will be some ice accumulations after all. After it's all said and done, accumulations may total up to an inch...but I don't think that's enough to closed down the schools/businesses all day here in DFW.

Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth
Thursday: 36°F
Thursday Night: 32°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Sherman
Thursday: 34°F
Thursday Night: 22°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Wichita Falls
Thursday: 34°F
Thursday Night: 20°F

also the hazardous weather outlook says 1-3 inches possible

[Kludge]

I don't know how much QC goes on with those maps, but I do know that NCEP will throw out the -4 if it made it through to them. It won't contaminate the map. They purge upper air winds (like 150 mb) if they are somewhat out of whack so I'm sure they'll catch this.

Filtering and smoothing of the data is dandy... but I would still prefer to trust you, wall_cloud, and folks like you, who will look at the maps...then look out the window.

So let's have some fun (maybe this is fodder for a new topic). More than one model is calling for significant icing in TX on 12/10. What does your gut tell you?

[TexasStooge]

no way in hell our low is gonna be 32 when the high is 36 and eveyone else drops to 20...i think the low is gonna be about 21, 22,23 or something and friday is gonna be a lot cooler than expected...downtown areas, sure...places 1 hour away from the cities, naw

The forecast may say one thing, but the actual readings can prove otherwise.

[aggiecutter]

If the ETA is right, I could see a little snow, maybe even a little accumulation on grassy surfaces, Thursday afternoon and night up here in Texarkana. Looks like a lot lift as the nose of the jet digs in over the NE Texas area.

0Z ETA:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

[cheezyWXguy]

no way in hell our low is gonna be 32 when the high is 36 and eveyone else drops to 20...i think the low is gonna be about 21, 22,23 or something and friday is gonna be a lot cooler than expected...downtown areas, sure...places 1 hour away from the cities, naw

The forecast may say one thing, but the actual readings can prove otherwise.

yeah thats true...whether i got almost no ice last december or not they reallyt busted in the temps
they didnt think it get that cold till the day it happend..out high was 30 on the day of ice and the day after

[wall_cloud]

keep in mind that I haven't looked at anything for a good 36-40 hours now (great time for a "weekend"). My gut tells me that some places along and just north of the low track are going to see WSW criteria snowfall and along/east of the i-35 corridor will see some ice accumulations. I wouldn't be surprised if the tx/ok panhandles, western OK and northwest TX needed a snow advisory (that is 1-4 inches). I think forecast temps may be a little warm up in my neck of the woods for tomorrow based on the current position of the front too. However, that is easy to say from my soft, reclining chair. Its a lot more difficult when you are accountable!!!

[Brent]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Model MOS guidance forecasted lows for Houston (IAH) Friday morning:

NGM = 21F
ETA = 30F
GFS = 33F

Looks like Friday morning could be anywhere from near freezing to well below, but one thing is for sure...it will be cold!

Let's just hope that 21F is not right though!

[wall_cloud]

MOS doesn't handle unusual events very well, but I'd think about undercutting the MAV for sure and probably the MET. The FWC seems a bit cold for IAH, but this is a cold airmass.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. It is 18F in Seattle this morning. You don't see that very often...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are the latest low temperature forecasts for north Houston tomorrow night:

Weather.com = 31F
NOAA = 31 to 33F (depends on where you click)
Accuweather = 27F

[Portastorm]

DFW now has a Winter Storm Watch out. Looks like our friends in north Texas are going to have one wild ride, starting tonight! Keep us posted guys ...

[cheezyWXguy]

DFW now has a Winter Storm Watch out. Looks like our friends in north Texas are going to have one wild ride, starting tonight! Keep us posted guys ...

Weve had it out since yesterday afternoon...man am i gonna love tomorrow...they expect 2 inches of ice, sleet, and snow...can someone tell me why they think the high will shoot uup so high when the low is around 20?

[Portastorm]

DFW now has a Winter Storm Watch out. Looks like our friends in north Texas are going to have one wild ride, starting tonight! Keep us posted guys ...

Weve had it out since yesterday afternoon...man am i gonna love tomorrow...they expect 2 inches of ice, sleet, and snow...can someone tell me why they think the high will shoot uup so high when the low is around 20?

Oh, I know cheezy ... but what I was referring to was that the actual metroplex is now under the WSW. Last night it wasn't, it was just mainly the Red River counties.

I'm still thinking the temps are going to be a bit of a "turkey shoot". You're going to have all kinds of things going on up there to affect temps like evaporative cooling, ground accumulations affecting air temps, etc. It may not get that warm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thanks, Portastorm....i dont see how it can get too warm with that much accumulation...but yeah, you are right about it being a turkey shoot..lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

It is still below 0F in Dallas this morning!

BTW, the main polar high has restrengthened to 1046mb this morning as it begins to pull southward:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

[TexasStooge]

DFW now has a Winter Storm Watch out. Looks like our friends in north Texas are going to have one wild ride, starting tonight! Keep us posted guys ...

Not only that, but a Freezing Rain Advisory has been issued for Northwestern parts of North Texas, mainly in Gainesville, Decatur, Jacksboro, and Graham.

Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth
Thursday: 36°F
Thursday Night: 26°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Sherman
Thursday: 32°F
Thursday Night: 21°F
_____________________________________________________________

Forecast for Wichita Falls
Thursday: 29°F
Thursday Night: 18°F

[jeff]

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch north of a line from Comanche to Cleburne to Waxahachie to Canton including the Dallas and Fort Worth metro area.

Dramatic weather change coming

Accumulations of ice and snow possible Thursday along with bitter cold air.

Discussion:

Arctic boundary moving south this morning entering the TX panhandle. Temp is currently 28 at Amarillo and 70 at Dallas. Low pressure forming at the surface over W TX will slow the front this afternoon and then as this low moves ENE tonight the front comes crashing southward. Temps. will fall 20-25 degrees within the first hour of frontal passage from the 70’s into the 40’s and fall below freezing by rush hour Thursday morning. Upper trough lags the arctic boundary by several hours and will eject across TX on Thursday.

Freezing line will progress southward and encompass nearly all of N TX by mid morning. Per GFS profiles the arctic air will be shallow to start and deepen through the day resulting in a plethora of P-types. As strong lift overspreads the region by mid morning expect freezing rain to start out with temps. wet bulbing down into the mid and upper 20’s resulting in glazing of bridges and overpasses. As the air column cools and the cold upper trough moves eastward the freezing rain will change to sleet and end as snow in the Winter Storm Watch area.

Accumulations:

Significant accumulations of ice and snow are possible in the watch area including the metroplex. At this time persons in the watch area can expect ¼ to ½ inch of ice and 1-3 inches of sleet/snow mixture with the heaviest amounts being along the Red River and lighter amounts southward. Feel the metro areas will likely see ¼ to ½ inch of glazing from freezing rain and ½ to 1.5 inches of sleet/snow mixture by early evening. Warm ground temps. from extended warm period may help melt much of what falls for the first several hours, but as temps. fall into the 20’s accumulations will begin. The exact track of the upper low will be critical in determining accumulation amounts. Per latest water vapor images suggest the upper trough may be digging more than forecast and this may result in a more significant winter weather event for a larger part of N TX.

Temps/Winds/Wind Chills:

Temps. will fall from near 70 tonight to near freezing by sunrise and into the upper 20’s during the day Thursday. Strong NW winds of 25-35mph will drive wind chills into the teens. This will be a dramatic shock to the body after the warm weather of late. Widespread hard freeze is expected Thursday night and Friday morning where snow and ice cover exists and skies clear out.

Preparations/Precautions:

Persons across N TX should remain alert to the weather forecast over the next 24 hours and be prepared for ice and snow/sleet conditions on area roadways. Expected ice and glazing of bridges and overpasses to begin during the morning commute with conditions worsening as the day progresses and temps. fall. Bridges and overpasses will likely become ice covered and/or snow/sleet packed by mid afternoon with main ground based roads becoming icy. Travel will be difficult at best by Thursday afternoon and dangerous by Thursday evening rush hour.

TXDOT and local road crews will begin applying anti-ice chemical to areas bridges and overpasses today which raises the temp. at which water will freeze. Sanding operations will likely by needed Thursday at many bridges.

A Winter Storm Warning will be issued later today for portions of the Winter Storm Watch area.