TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I was 13 years old in 1989. We hovered around 13 degrees here

Sure you're not confusing Feb '89 with Dec '89?

According to the Corpus NWS records, the Feb 4-8 1989 period the temp did not go above 50. The 4th thru the 6th the high never made it above 34 and the lows were in the upper 20's. In fact on the 6th it never made it above freezing. All of this means the temps were probably colder inland, because the Corpus NWS is pretty close to the bay which influneces the temps one way or another depending on the season. That is the mini outbreak they are talking about, I think.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AFM and other Pro mets,

How cold do you think it could get in the Ag areas of the RGV? Are we indeed looking at a possible event where the temp hovers or goes below freezing for several hours?

[Air Force Met]

I was 13 years old in 1989. We hovered around 13 degrees here

Sure you're not confusing Feb '89 with Dec '89?

According to the Corpus NWS records, the Feb 4-8 1989 period the temp did not go above 50. The 4th thru the 6th the high never made it above 34 and the lows were in the upper 20's. In fact on the 6th it never made it above freezing. All of this means the temps were probably colder inland, because the Corpus NWS is pretty close to the bay which influneces the temps one way or another depending on the season. That is the mini outbreak they are talking about, I think.

There were two outbreaks that year. The first one was very colder and lasted a long time...the second one (in December) was close to Christmas and didn't last as long...but was a LOT colder. Corpus got down to 13 on the 23rd...with a high of 30. Houston got down to 7. BUt...it only last a couple of days and then it was back up into the 60's.

[Air Force Met]

AFM and other Pro mets,

How cold do you think it could get in the Ag areas of the RGV? Are we indeed looking at a possible event where the temp hovers or goes below freezing for several hours?

That depends on how much arctic air actually gets tapped. I'm not super-impressed with the amount of cold air up there to be drawn south. The pattern is awesome...but the cold air is lacking. Same thing happened last year...we had a great pattern but we didn't have a whole lot of cold air to work with.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I was 13 years old in 1989. We hovered around 13 degrees here

Sure you're not confusing Feb '89 with Dec '89?

According to the Corpus NWS records, the Feb 4-8 1989 period the temp did not go above 50. The 4th thru the 6th the high never made it above 34 and the lows were in the upper 20's. In fact on the 6th it never made it above freezing. All of this means the temps were probably colder inland, because the Corpus NWS is pretty close to the bay which influneces the temps one way or another depending on the season. That is the mini outbreak they are talking about, I think.

There were two outbreaks that year. The first one was very colder and lasted a long time...the second one (in December) was close to Christmas and didn't last as long...but was a LOT colder. Corpus got down to 13 on the 23rd...with a high of 30. Houston got down to 7. BUt...it only last a couple of days and then it was back up into the 60's.

Yea, I figured that. What was also kind of amusing looking at the Corpus records for Feb 1989 was towards the end of February, we hit 93. So we went from 26 to 93 within a three weeks span.

Gotta love Texas winter weather.

[KatDaddy]

If the Polar Vortex does indeed setup over the N US we are in for trouble.
We likely get snow and ice from deep S TX eastward across the entire Gulf Coast. However my concern will bursting pipes, popping freeze plugs, and destruction of many tropical and fruit plants. It would be quite a disaster should this event come true

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS run is in. If you throw out its surface temp progs and concentrate on the 500mb and 850mb flow patterns ... and if you like snow and ice and real cold, REAL COLD temperatures in Texas ... then this is the model run for you!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[gboudx]

Just let us know when you're gonna lace up the shoes and get ready to kick that football, Porta.

[HouTXmetro]

When is Burn1 coming to tell us SW flow aloft will save Texas?

[Portastorm]

When is Burn1 coming to tell us SW flow aloft will save Texas?

[southerngale]

I see mets talking about bitter cold making it all the way to the Gulf coast, and I've seen '89 and '83 mentioned a few times. But then I see where some of the same mets are saying that the air isn't extraordinarily cold up there. Doesn't the Siberian air need to be particularly cold for this to be a significant Arctic blast, something that prompts wxman57 to send out a Special Weather Statement?
I understand the pattern setup is great, but can that alone with "ordinary" temperatures up there and not "extraordinary" temperatures bring this major Arctic blast that is being advertised?

[Portastorm]

I see mets talking about bitter cold making it all the way to the Gulf coast, and I've seen '89 and '83 mentioned a few times. But then I see where some of the same mets are saying that the air isn't extraordinarily cold up there. Doesn't the Siberian air need to be particularly cold for this to be a significant Arctic blast, something that prompts wxman57 to send out a Special Weather Statement?
I understand the pattern setup is great, but can that alone with "ordinary" temperatures up there and not "extraordinary" temperatures bring this major Arctic blast that is being advertised?

Talk about your momentum-killing posts ... geez SG, why'd you have to go and ruin everything with your questions?

I hate it when we have to deal with facts around here.



All kidding aside, I wondered the same thing after reading those earlier posts.

[gboudx]

I guess the question is, how extraordinary does it have to be to be a major event for the South? Look at just 2-3 weeks ago. That was a major event, but no records were broken, at least here in DFW.

BTW, thanks for beating the Spurs.

[HouTXmetro]

I see mets talking about bitter cold making it all the way to the Gulf coast, and I've seen '89 and '83 mentioned a few times. But then I see where some of the same mets are saying that the air isn't extraordinarily cold up there. Doesn't the Siberian air need to be particularly cold for this to be a significant Arctic blast, something that prompts wxman57 to send out a Special Weather Statement?
I understand the pattern setup is great, but can that alone with "ordinary" temperatures up there and not "extraordinary" temperatures bring this major Arctic blast that is being advertised?

Nicely put, I'm thinking it will be along the same line as last week's event but slightly colder and less precip for our area. nothing major but It's just a wild guess

[HouTXmetro]

I guess the question is, how extraordinary does it have to be to be a major event for the South? Look at just 2-3 weeks ago. That was a major event, but no records were broken, at least here in DFW.

BTW, thanks for beating the Spurs.

Off Topic, healthy Rockets >Spurs & Mavs!!!!

[Portastorm]

I guess the question is, how extraordinary does it have to be to be a major event for the South? Look at just 2-3 weeks ago. That was a major event, but no records were broken, at least here in DFW.

BTW, thanks for beating the Spurs.

Off Topic, healthy Rockets >Spurs & Mavs!!!!

I was at that game ... grrrrr....

[southerngale]

BTW, thanks for beating the Spurs.

Anytime.



hehe...I bet Portastorm will love my reply this time too.

[rsdoug1981]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this event will be different because the polar vortex will be much closer to the continental US than it was during the event a couple of weeks ago.

The last arctic blast drew from cold air in northwestern Canada while this event will draw from a -30ish pv that is over or just south of Hudson Bay. While not extraordinarily cold, some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere will be centered just north of Minnesota and the Great Lakes.

[gboudx]

Off Topic, healthy Rockets >Spurs & Mavs!!!!

You might want to have your tap water checked where you live. It appears there's some kind of hallucinogen in it.

[Portastorm]

BTW, thanks for beating the Spurs.

Anytime.



hehe...I bet Portastorm will love my reply this time too.

Ha, ha, ha ... aren't you clever!