Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

One final post this morning ... check out this Euro ensemble means 500mb at 10 days out ... shows what is called "cross-polar flow" into the central and eastern USA.



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[Ntxw]

Second run in a row from the GFS showing record U.S cold (yes vodka even into Texas). Not the range we want but it is a good building foundation to work with

[vbhoutex]

Taking my moderator hat off and putting on my winter weather fandom hat ... and sharing some Saturday morning thoughts out of the Portastorm Weather Center:

1) The extensive dialogue over the last two weeks in this forum regarding Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) has been educational, entertaining, and, at times, frustrating. Let's be honest with each other ... we're all amateurs and while some of us are more advanced than others, talking about SSW is like talking about nuclear physics. It's a VERY complicated topic which even degreed pro mets on other forums acknowledge a tall learning curve. We know a little bit about this subject, at best.

2) With that in mind, any calls here for a certain weather pattern to develop based on yours or my understanding of SSW are flawed at best. Unfortunately expectations get raised when we make those posts and then people get disappointed when it doesn't happen.

3) Yes, this is a forum for us to bandy about our various ideas, share humor, and otherwise comiserate or celebrate whatever weather the good Lord is allowing to happen. My thoughts here are not meant to discourage that. I would just encourage people to put a filter on your expectations if you're basing them on anything other than comments from a pro met here, the NWS, or a pro met whose word you trust. Sometimes us amateurs know what we're talking about ... more times, we know a little. If you allow your winter weather hopes to soar and plummet based on the daily dialogue here, it'll kill ya! Trust me, I know. I've died a thousand deaths over the years.

4) Yes, I still believe some major-league cold is coming down the pike. The polar vortex, or a piece of it, is progged by the GFS and the Euro to come down into Canada and maybe even the Great Lakes around Jan 20-22. If that happens, it's gonna get VERY COLD here. No doubt about it. I think the late January period into February is going to provide some real excitement for many of us. And as many here have already posted, February has provided some of our best winter weather events over the years.

5) This coming week’s storm system(s) look less impressive than a few days ago. There may be a smattering of wintry precip in the mornings in some select areas but probably nothing widespread.

6) And finally … personally, one of the great things about Storm2K is the ability for rank amateurs such as myself to talk weather with more educated amateurs and even professional meteorologists. We do so in an environment which is devoid of criticism. Hopefully that encourages lurkers and first timers to post questions and comments. Don’t stop, gang! Jump in.

Ok, I guess I will take off my admin cap too.
Great post Porta!! I love being on this site and it has nothing to do with being an admin(in fact sometimes it gets in the way). The discussions STRETCH my abilities as a RANK RANK amateur met. As "good" as I sometimes think I am some of the "amateurs" on here make me look like a babe in arms. Of course the pros always bring me back to reality.
The discussions about the SSW and its' consequences have been every educational(if I can remember any of it)and challenging to say the least. When I discuss different things I try to take the time to look at several different places and "listen" to several different sources to come to my conclusions. Having said that I think we are in for a period of very to possibly extreme(for our areas)cold here in TX. Everything I look at tells me that there is going to be a solid push of polar air into the US central plains and Southward. It almost looks like a given(nothing in weather is)that the PV will set up near or over the Norther US border/Great Lakes area. That positioning will help determine how much of the Polar air we get down into TX. My thoughts are that we will get several pushes of cold air with each one helping to reinforce the previous. If that happens the precipitation types for many areas of TX will have to be watched closely. As we all know timing is everything with Winter weather and Winter precip in most areas of TX so this will at a minimum, imo, will be interesting to watch and prognosticate about. So let's "talk" and see what happens. It is always fun and educational, at least for me. Like Porta said, we need to remember not to hang everything on what we see or say, but enjoy it as it progresses to whatever eventually happens.
If I didn't know more I'd be sitting here saying Winter is over. It is 72f right now. However, tomorrow brings back the reality of our Winters in SE TX. We will start in the upper 60s overnight and with the passage of the cold front overnight will end up in the 40's before the afternoon is over. That will probably be almost as warm as we get the rest of the week. My guess is that this is the first step in the "step down" to the possible "extreme" cold we may see in the next several weeks.

[dhweather]

It's sure looking like the EPAC ridge will break down in 5-7 days. For ease of use, look at the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and even NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Looks like the ridge breaks down, and late some strong high pressure builds across Alaska, into western Canada, and starts heading south towards the upper plains/great lakes.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

-30 C, not bad! Lol, that would be nice. SOMETHING has to pan out this year. Major cold is overdue.

[Ntxw]

It's sure looking like the EPAC ridge will break down in 5-7 days. For ease of use, look at the GFS/ECMWF/CMC and even NOGAPS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Looks like the ridge breaks down, and late some strong high pressure builds across Alaska, into western Canada, and starts heading south towards the upper plains/great lakes.

I wouldn't say it's breaking down. The final element needed for McFarland's signature is cross polar flow and the NE Epac ridge to connect with the Arctic ridge (high). Look at 500mb rather than 850. The high connects into the Arctic and the -AO tank takes over bringing the Arctic high down, the two merge and heads down the spine of the rockies

[BigB0882]

Second run in a row from the GFS showing record U.S cold (yes vodka even into Texas). Not the range we want but it is a good building foundation to work with

Is that map showing temps only at the time posted on the map or are those the high temps for that day? I forget how that works sometimes. I see the 0c line down to my area but it makes a big difference if it is a high temp or just the temp which might be in the middle of the night. A light freeze wouldn't be anything too exciting for my area but a high below freezing sure would be.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

-30 C, not bad! Lol, that would be nice. SOMETHING has to pan out this year. Major cold is overdue.

-30C would be for who?????

[cycloneye]

The term McFarland has been mentioned and maybe a few members dont know what that is so here is the whole explanation.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[Ntxw]

Second run in a row from the GFS showing record U.S cold (yes vodka even into Texas). Not the range we want but it is a good building foundation to work with

Is that map showing temps only at the time posted on the map or are those the high temps for that day? I forget how that works sometimes. I see the 0c line down to my area but it makes a big difference if it is a high temp or just the temp which might be in the middle of the night. A light freeze wouldn't be anything too exciting for my area but a high below freezing sure would be.

It's too long range to say. What that run shows is the PV is coming down into the United States. Everyone is falling precipitously. That map is only 850, if it is true arctic air it would be much colder at the surface. Only a handful of times have we seen -30c come that far south into the US. 1983 and 1985 are the two in recent memory. It is also low resolution of the model so how you see it is not how it will probably play out regarding temps.

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the explanation. I always forget to look at which height the map is showing.

[Big O]

For those of us looking for signals of vodka cold in our area, here is a post from one of the best, if not the best amateur mets (Jorge from Mexico, also known as wxmx):

"Yep, PV in the HB is classic for C CONUS cold, more than the East Coast. Unless a very strong -NAO develops, which would dislodge the PV from the HB and move it closer to the NE, which some runs have shown...but even then, the PV progresses rapidly and redevelops in the HB.

Although a PV in the HB is good for N Plains cold, there needs to be a big ridge in the west coast to tap some arctic cross polar flow and deliver the goods to the south...if these 2 combine, it'll be very cold in our backyard...and if the west coast ridge connects to the arctic ridge, then it develops what is known as the McFarland signature, which would bring the freezer to most of the CONUS.

So the ingredients are there:

1. The MWW will send the AO to the tank. This is unanimously shown in all models in the mid and longer range, to different degrees. Confidence on this is high.
2. PV splits, with one piece in Siberia and one in Canada, which most models keep around HB on average. Confidence on this is moderate.
3. Big west coast ridge. Most models show anomalous high heights in this region, and they are supported by MJO phase 5-6 and GWO phase 4-5 (though this one is weak) with increasing GLAAM. Confidence is low to moderate.
4. The biggest question mark is if the pacific ridging will be strong enough (or the arctic ridging, or both) to link and deliver the mythic cross polar flow. Confidence is low, mostly because models have shown it just occasionally, and also because is naturally a low probability event.

Check all 4, and you'll have to keep your fridge door open to keep you warm."

Let's hope we can check off all four later in January or early February. By the way, Jorge is honing in on the period from January 25 to February 5.

From americanwx.com. Post by wxmx.

[Portastorm]

Big O, if you are going to copy a post from someone, please indicate where you saw this and from where you are copying. Another forum? Please edit your post and give credit to where it's coming from. Thanks.

I'm quite familiar with Jorge (wxmx) and his stellar reputation as a very knowledgable amateur. I don't doubt at all what he's saying. He's one smart weather dude.

[Ntxw]

That's a very good post big O, his explanation fits well with the McFarland paper

Euro is continuing it's idea from 0z and GFS. We now have 4 runs from 2 models of vodka cold into the US.

Edit: I'm pretty confident the Russian cold will be drained over to North America and that the coldest air will reside for a long time here. Seen enough model support and pattern recognition for it. The longer we keep it the more chances we have for the ridges to connect. It's not a one shot or you're out deal

[orangeblood]

If anyone wants to see what coast to coast Vodka Cold looks like, check out this NCEP reanalysis map from one of the coldest nights for the North American continent you'll ever find......the morning of December 24, 1983. Where the entire US temperature averaged out to be around 4 deg F!!!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well, that was a pleasant surprise. Just saw about .78 inches of rain in Richardson. Hard, driving, cold rain. Temps dropped about 12 degrees during the rain, now down to 54.

[Big O]

:uarrow:

Big O, if you are going to copy a post from someone, please indicate where you saw this and from where you are copying. Another forum? Please edit your post and give credit to where it's coming from. Thanks.

I'm quite familiar with Jorge (wxmx) and his stellar reputation as a very knowledgable amateur. I don't doubt at all what he's saying. He's one smart weather dude.

Done. Sorry about that.

[Ntxw]

Cold front is crossing Texas today, any guesses where it is? Snow should be flying tonight into Oklahoma while wxman57 will go into hibernation for a long while

[northjaxpro]

If anyone wants to see what coast to coast Vodka Cold looks like, check out this NCEP reanalysis map from one of the coldest nights for the North American continent you'll ever find......the morning of December 24, 1983. Where the entire US temperature averaged out to be around 4 deg F!!!!

That was a once in a lifetime type of cold outbreak in 1983, which I remember very well. I was in Panama City, FL and the mercury fell to 11 degrees Christmas morning with ice on the sands of Panama City Beach. During that event , a massive 1060 mb Arctic High dropped down from Western Canda into Montana. Look at the powerful northerly flow straight down from the arctic region down into the lower 48 from Dec 24, 1983 surface analysis:





Whether or not we will see a similar set-up for record cold in the next 10 days or so remains to be seen, but the models today are finally beginning to come together that much of the country will see some pretty cold temps beginning at around January 19 into January 26 and possibly longer if the famed MacFarland signature pattern gets established.

[GaryHughes]

Wow, those were extreme numbers! 1036 mb all the way down to the Southern most part of Texas.