Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DentonGal]

and everyone always gets excited.

I don't think it's as much excitement as it is just something to talk about. Sure a huge storm is not likely to come, but I'd rather the GFS show that then nothing at all. If it's showing that then at least we have a chance at some kind of wintry weather, rather it be just a little or a lot.

As long it's there it's worth talking about.

You are totally right! The rollercoaster ride is part of the fun! Many say people up north aren't as excited for snow. It's the same with model watching I guess. If you know you're always going to get it, what's the fun in that?! It's all of the heartbreaks that make the one time even sweeter.

Wonderful analogy! It was practically poetic...sigh...

[benrayrog]

God, I love this place!

[txwxwatcher]

How real is the potential for a winter weather event for SE Texas in early February? I read in another forum that the afternoon GFS run showed a potentially destructive ice storm (about 1 inch) for the Houston area while other model runs in the last day or so have been indicating the potential of anywhere from 3-6 inches or more of snow.

[Ntxw]

How real is the potential for a winter weather event for SE Texas in early February? I read in another forum that the afternoon GFS run showed a potentially destructive ice storm (about 1 inch) for the Houston area while other model runs in the last day or so have been indicating the potential of anywhere from 3-6 inches or more of snow.

I wouldn't worry about any of that right now. Recent runs have been a bit less impressive. The chances of that happening is about the same as buying a scratch lottery ticket and winning 1000 off it. But the chance is there

[wall_cloud]

How real is the potential for a winter weather event for SE Texas in early February? I read in another forum that the afternoon GFS run showed a potentially destructive ice storm (about 1 inch) for the Houston area while other model runs in the last day or so have been indicating the potential of anywhere from 3-6 inches or more of snow.

That's way to far out to say with any semblance of confidence. The models show fairly significant winter events in the Day 10+ time range routinely during the winter and only a small fraction ever amount to anything at all. I would wait about 4-5 days before even worrying about specifics (3-6" snowfall). You can start to get an idea of the overall synoptic pattern but you are talking mesoscale which is way beyond the skill of the models at that range.

[Ptarmigan]

San Angelo has just had bad luck....... Maybe that will change... You guys have been surrounded by some pretty good snowstorms..


It 's hard to forget that jan 12th 1985 snowstorm in south Texas... Many got 10-16 inches...

1998 storm dropped 9 to 12 inches around Midland

1987 storm dropped 20-30 inches in and around El Paso

2004 storms dropped 10-16 inches SE of Houston

And the February 1895 Blizzard in Houston we all dream about.... Many in SE texas got 18 inches and some places just north and east of Houston got 24-36 inches... Roof damage from something like that would be insane..

If the 1895 snow happened today, many roofs could give way. It would shut the city down.

[txwxwatcher]

How real is the potential for a winter weather event for SE Texas in early February? I read in another forum that the afternoon GFS run showed a potentially destructive ice storm (about 1 inch) for the Houston area while other model runs in the last day or so have been indicating the potential of anywhere from 3-6 inches or more of snow.

That's way to far out to say with any semblance of confidence. The models show fairly significant winter events in the Day 10+ time range routinely during the winter and only a small fraction ever amount to anything at all. I would wait about 4-5 days before even worrying about specifics (3-6" snowfall). You can start to get an idea of the overall synoptic pattern but you are talking mesoscale which is way beyond the skill of the models at that range.

Thank you for your input wall_cloud and ntxw. Will be interested to see if this turns out to be just another figment of the models' imagination, a $1K scratch-off ticket, or something in between.

[wall_cloud]

How real is the potential for a winter weather event for SE Texas in early February? I read in another forum that the afternoon GFS run showed a potentially destructive ice storm (about 1 inch) for the Houston area while other model runs in the last day or so have been indicating the potential of anywhere from 3-6 inches or more of snow.

That's way to far out to say with any semblance of confidence. The models show fairly significant winter events in the Day 10+ time range routinely during the winter and only a small fraction ever amount to anything at all. I would wait about 4-5 days before even worrying about specifics (3-6" snowfall). You can start to get an idea of the overall synoptic pattern but you are talking mesoscale which is way beyond the skill of the models at that range.

Thank you for your input wall_cloud and ntxw. Will be interested to see if this turns out to be just another figment of the models' imagination, a $1K scratch-off ticket, or something in between.

it will more than likely be a useless receipt that you use to hold your used chewing gum, but you never know.

[Ntxw]

Alright so here is the trend lately from the GFS and Euro (fairly similar atm). 0z GFS depicts a powerful 500mb low will swing through southern Canada this week and drive an arctic front down towards TX late week (fairly confident that should happen with the pattern we are in). At the same time a storm (pretty good one) crashes into the NW. What happens after that would be speculation.

NW flow aloft would probably swing it down the rockies and have it travel along the arctic boundary. How much cold air is still in place or how strong of a system it could be is a total guess.

All in all the GFS still has that big storm early Feb.

[natlib]

Weatherstreet.com is a site I like. You can look at the updated computer model maps and get some ideas on what the models are thinking precip wise.

[Ntxw]

Canadian showing a big Texas snowstorm at the same time You have support from the 3 big models. Now lets keep it that way for another few runs.

[Brandon8181]

Canadian showing a big Texas snowstorm at the same time You have support from the 3 big models. Now lets keep it that way for another few runs.

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/7017/canadaw.gif

From run to run. they have changed a little..but its impressive to me that over the last couple of days they have been "somewhat" consistant...on a day to day basis...

I wonder if... ?

snow shovel?

[Ntxw]

From run to run. they have changed a little..but its impressive to me that over the last couple of days they have been "somewhat" consistant...on a day to day basis...

I wonder if... ?

snow shovel?

Usually when you have that kind of consistency (GFS showing something over and over and over, ECMWF/Canadian aboard eventually) you likely will have a storm. Snow rain or ice or all, there's just no way to even start guessingl until we get into better resolution (100-150 hrs).

The Canadian really does look beautiful. You have a strong SW system winding up as it treks slowly across northern MX with the NW half of TX in all snow (high ratios with -10c in W TX shifting southeast and transitions across the state before the low even swings across. 1044 high just to the north providing the cold air. If I had to draw the perfect statewide snow set up, this would be it.

[iorange55]

Hopefully the groundhogs are in snow come Feb. 2nd.

[Brandon8181]

From run to run. they have changed a little..but its impressive to me that over the last couple of days they have been "somewhat" consistant...on a day to day basis...

I wonder if... ?

snow shovel?

Usually when you have that kind of consistency (GFS showing something over and over and over, ECMWF/Canadian aboard eventually) you likely will have a storm. Snow rain or ice or all, there's just no way to even start guessingl until we get into better resolution (100-150 hrs).

If the ridge sets up to the west, as I feel like it will, I really feel like that will provide a great opportunity to bring lots of cold air down from Canada which would further, in my opinion, increase the chance for winter weather across the southern us, over the next 7-14 days.

[Brandon8181]

Hopefully the groundhogs are in snow come Feb. 2nd.

I love how he....you know..the man with the hat, picks up the ground hog, and kisses him, on ground hog day...

So funny.

[Ntxw]

Btw, if there was ever such a thing as a 'superstorm' for Texas/Oklahoma, what the Canadian is showing would be it. Giant comma shape storm from NM to the gulf states.

[txwxwatcher]

From run to run. they have changed a little..but its impressive to me that over the last couple of days they have been "somewhat" consistant...on a day to day basis...

I wonder if... ?

snow shovel?

Usually when you have that kind of consistency (GFS showing something over and over and over, ECMWF/Canadian aboard eventually) you likely will have a storm. Snow rain or ice or all, there's just no way to even start guessingl until we get into better resolution (100-150 hrs).

The Canadian really does look beautiful. You have a strong SW system winding up as it treks slowly across northern MX with the NW half of TX in all snow (high ratios with -10c in W TX shifting southeast and transitions across the state before the low even swings across. 1044 high just to the north providing the cold air. If I had to draw the perfect statewide snow set up, this would be it.

Ntxw, would you mind explaining what the Canadian is depicting for the Houston area?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, would you mind explaining what the Canadian is depicting for the Houston area?

Don't worry about that, just know there's a possibility of a storm for the state. I'd probably give it 20% chance of happening with the models insisting it will be there lately.

[Ntxw]

0z ECMWF is kind of the same set up. Big low sending cold air down as a storm gathers in the NW diving south/se into it while winding up nicely as a cutoff (546-540dm would mean a pretty powerful system).



You know what they say, historic storms are predicted well out by the models.

Don't give up on next week either. UKMET, NAM, GFS have all hinted perhaps a bit of precip with the coming storm in NTX.