Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

0z ECMWF is kind of the same set up. Big low sending cold air down as a storm gathers in the NW diving south/se into it while winding up nicely as a cutoff (546-540dm would mean a pretty powerful system).

Nice trend tonight....

[Ntxw]

Nice trend tonight....

You know, just an outside crazy thought, with a 546dm or lower you'd be getting close (verbatim as is right now), there would be warnings for the b word. Christmas blizzard was 546 going 534 dm into Oklahoma.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow...this thread has 145 pages.

And it isn't even February yet.

On a related note, from Ft. Worth NWS discussion this morning:

LOOKING BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE
INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE WITH SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF going full blown ice/sleet storm for N. TX next Monday.

Freeze line is Lufkin to Waco. Given that the models typically underestimate the wedging of cold air down the eastern side Edwards Plateau (from the coriolis effect) I would say Austin has a good chance next Monday if this is close. BUT AGAIN it is 7+ days away.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF going full blown ice/sleet storm for N. TX next Monday.

Freeze line is Lufkin to Waco. Given that the models typically underestimate the wedging of cold air down the eastern side Edwards Plateau (from the coriolis effect) I would say Austin has a good chance next Monday if this is close. BUT AGAIN it is 7+ days away.

So the GFS may have been right all along.

[wxman57]

Ntxw, would you mind explaining what the Canadian is depicting for the Houston area?

Neither the 00Z Euro or Canadian forecasts snow for Houston within 10 days. The Euro has the 850mb and surface freezing line north of Dallas. The Canadian has the colder air well to our west and northwest. They both do indicate plenty of cold air around and more energy digging south, suggesting the possibility of snow beyond 10 days, though. I suspect none of the models is correct yet.

[Portastorm]

Storm2K News this morning caught the director of the Portastorm Weather Center outside his house of worship, asking why the director had not issued a statement yesterday as promised.

"This is a complex situation which requires a lot of study," the director said. "I'm pleased with the overnight computer model trends and now seeing that txagwxman is growing somewhat in confidence as well that we will see a humdinger of a winter storm for Texas very soon."

Before ducking into the church, the PWC director added that he recommends "Texans begin their preparations now for what could be significant winter storm." However, the director failed to answer questions about his subpar forecasting record this winter season.

More news later on this same network.

[txagwxman]

Ntxw, would you mind explaining what the Canadian is depicting for the Houston area?

Neither the 00Z Euro or Canadian forecasts snow for Houston within 10 days. The Euro has the 850mb and surface freezing line north of Dallas. The Canadian has the colder air well to our west and northwest. They both do indicate plenty of cold air around and more energy digging south, suggesting the possibility of snow beyond 10 days, though. I suspect none of the models is correct yet.

ECMWF 2m temps freeze line is south of DFW next Monday. Starts out just north, then eases south during the day to Waco/LFK/GGG.

But like you said...it is 7-8+ day away. GFS is nutz.

[Portastorm]

The forecast over the next 48 hours here in Texas has become rather interesting.

Anyone read the morning AFD out of Houston/Galveston? Some big changes have occurred. Wouldn't surprise me to see some reports of wintry precip out of east Texas (Texarkana down to Huntsville/Livingston/Jasper) before all is said and done.

[Metalicwx220]

6z gfs at 264 hours doesn't make sense. HOW CAN THE FREZZING LINE BE DEEP INTO MEXICO BUT YET THE WHOLE DEEP SOUTH IS ABOVE FREZZING? Looking better for Texas.

[srainhoutx]

6z gfs at 264 hours doesn't make sense. HOW CAN THE FREZZING LINE BE DEEP INTO MEXICO BUT YET THE WHOLE DEEP SOUTH IS ABOVE FREZZING? Looking better for Texas.

Elevation. Those are mountains near and N of Monterrey, MX. It has happened in the past.

[Metalicwx220]

6z gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 14~16 inches of snow into MEXICO and 3 inches throughout texas.Also

[txagwxman]

Ntxw, would you mind explaining what the Canadian is depicting for the Houston area?

Neither the 00Z Euro or Canadian forecasts snow for Houston within 10 days. The Euro has the 850mb and surface freezing line north of Dallas. The Canadian has the colder air well to our west and northwest. They both do indicate plenty of cold air around and more energy digging south, suggesting the possibility of snow beyond 10 days, though. I suspect none of the models is correct yet.

Agree...I don't think Houston will get it. But fun to watch these outrageous GFS runs.

[utweather]

Since we are grasping at straws for anything interesting to happen. Has anyone read the book "The Coming Global Superstorm" or seen the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?" I found both entertaining. I have since wondered if earth could one day have a prolong storm like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.
Has the GFS ever showed something like this?

[txagwxman]

Since we are grasping at straws for anything interesting to happen. Has anyone read the book "The Coming Global Superstorm" or seen the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?" I found both entertaining. I have since wondered if earth could one day have a prolong storm like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.
Has the GFS ever showed something like this?

TOO MUCH FRICTION...it will never happen.

Jupiter is a gas planet with little friction...the red spot is an anti-cyclonic storm (high pressure) in the middle.

[utweather]

Since we are grasping at straws for anything interesting to happen. Has anyone read the book "The Coming Global Superstorm" or seen the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?" I found both entertaining. I have since wondered if earth could one day have a prolong storm like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.
Has the GFS ever showed something like this?

TOO MUCH FRICTION...it will never happen.

Jupiter is a gas planet with little friction...the red spot is an anti-cyclonic storm (high pressure) in the middle.

Oh okay, I was thinking some mega cyclonic storm, but the friction like you mention would do it in. I was thinking heat dissipation would cause it to weaken, but if a runaway greenhouse developed then it could overcome weakening trends..

[srainhoutx]

FYI: A lot of missing data for the 12Z NCEP suite...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Jan 23 13:44:31 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 231343
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1343Z SUN JAN 23 2011
THE 12Z NAM BEGAN ON SCHD AND THERE WERE MORE THAN
USUAL RAOB PBLMS OVER N AMER BUT WITH 29 CAN 11 MEX
AND 8 CARIB RAOBS AVBL. RAOB RECAP...
AKN/70326 - POWER FAILURE...CODE 10144.
FFC/72215 - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10158.
KPP/78970 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
MZL/76654 - MISCELLANEOUS ISSUE...CODE 10159.
BMX/72230 - SHORT TO 472 MB...CODE 10159.
INL/72747 - WIND DATA MISSING.
YMW/71722 - UNAVAILABLE.
YVP/71906 - DEL HGTS/TEMPS 871 MB AND UP...UP TO 6 K WARM.
LIH/91165 - DELETED TEMPS 841-774 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LR.
KPB/78954 - DELETED TEMPS 890...715-704...674-672 MB...
SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NO CWD IS IN EFFECT PRESENTLY HOWEVER NWS WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVPMT OF A POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST
COAST WINTER STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[utweather]

Some more science "friction", i mean fiction..
Does anyone think the magnetic poles will shift again anytime soon and what affect this may have on the weather?
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/05 ... ts-tampa-/

[wxman57]

The forecast over the next 48 hours here in Texas has become rather interesting.

Anyone read the morning AFD out of Houston/Galveston? Some big changes have occurred. Wouldn't surprise me to see some reports of wintry precip out of east Texas (Texarkana down to Huntsville/Livingston/Jasper) before all is said and done.

Those big changes appear to be a better rain chance farther inland. I was checking soundings and you'd have to go all the way north to Arkansas to get below freezing in the lower 5000 ft. Possibly a shot in Texarkana, but not south of there. We'll have to wait another week here in Texas for the next good shot of winter precip.

[Metalicwx220]

6z gfs at 264 hours doesn't make sense. HOW CAN THE FREZZING LINE BE DEEP INTO MEXICO BUT YET THE WHOLE DEEP SOUTH IS ABOVE FREZZING? Looking better for Texas.

Elevation. Those are mountains near and N of Monterrey, MX. It has happened in the past.

This is what i was refering to.