Texas Winter 2019-2020

[weatherdude1108]

Guess we have a good subtropical fetch from our Pacific friend. Woohoo!

Per the CPC's latest outlooks issued today:

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

A Rainy and Cool Pattern Setting Up for Next Week. Significant Totals Possible.
Friday, February 7, 2020 3:38 PM
​
A cloudy, damp and somewhat unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take shape Sunday when a large trough of low pressure begins to sink south into southern California and northwestern Mexico, pulling Pacific and Gulf moisture north into Texas. As atmospheric moisture levels increase throughout the day, scattered light rain showers are forecast to develop across the region. The probability for rain across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions will be near 30 percent Sunday afternoon, increasing to 50 percent Sunday night. Across the coastal plains, the probability for rain will be near 50 percent Sunday, increasing to 70 percent Sunday night.

The cold front is forecast to stall along the coast Monday night and remain in essentially the same position through Thursday. At the same time, the trough of low pressure over northwestern Mexico is predicted to slowly track to the east. Weak waves of low pressure moving into Texas out ahead of the main trough are expected to cause the development of an overrunning rain pattern beginning Monday night, with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms continuing Tuesday through Wednesday night. The rainy pattern should end from west to east Thursday morning as the upper trough finally exits to the east. The probability for rain Tuesday and Wednesday will be near 70 percent. No strong or severe storms are forecast within this overrunning pattern.

Rainfall forecasts call for storm totals to generally average between 1 and 3 inches, with the highest totals expected to occur across the coastal counties. Isolated totals to near 4 inches will be possible.



Long-range forecasts call for another chance for rain to develop next Sunday (February 16th) and Monday when a trough of low pressure moves into Texas out of the Southwestern U.S. Mild temperatures look to continue throughout the week of February 16th as the arctic air continues bottled up well to our north.

[Haris]

Snow in ATL sat morning.

[northjaxpro]

I posted about this in the Deep South winter thread a short time ago. This would have been good to post this there on that thread to be honest.

[ravyrn]

I might end up stranded in New Mexico next week! lol

That looks like a classic I-40 blizzard my family has been stranded along that route many times in the 40 or so years they have had their place up in the mountains. If stranded Santa Rosa is probably the most pleasant town to be stuck in along I-40 between Albuquerque and Amarillo.

Which mountains does your family have a place? We used to have a place up in the La Platas of SW CO from '85 to about '06. I'm very familiar with that stretch of I-40 and we'd often stop in Santa Rosa for the night when we lived in SW Louisiana. I remember catching a snowstorm one trip during Spring Break when I was maybe 6 and you could hardly see anything other than the tail lights in front of you. I believe it was right before Moriarty. My favorite snowfalls in the La Platas though were two in June in '99 and Father's Day of 2011. We had fled the worst summer ever in Texas to camp out in a meadow and woke up Father's Day with about 4 inches of new snow. I woke up early just around sunrise and was completely surprised to see the snow. I took a walk in the meadow to enjoy the white scenery and saw a coyote off on the edge of the meadow playing around in the snow, likely enjoying it more than I was

[Golfer7575]

The convection in the maritime continent has hurt us alot this winter. We can't get out of this pattern. I know there are other things as well. You would think with an active southern jet that one of these systems would catch up with enough cold air, but hasn't happened.

[MSUDawg]

Big snow event for DFW in just 12 days!

You sound like Pete Delkus ..... grrr

[gpsnowman]

A multi-day rain event on tap starting Sunday. Man that is a lot of moisture with no really cold air in sight. Imagine if we had several days with temps in the upper 20's with all this moisture!! I can dream, can't I?

[Brent]

A multi-day rain event on tap starting Sunday. Man that is a lot of moisture with no really cold air in sight. Imagine if we had several days with temps in the upper 20's with all this moisture!! I can dream, can't I?

I know i snow chased Wednesday but all this rain just feels like such a waste lol it's been a pattern all winter too

We'll be glad for the rain in a few months but meh

[Haris]

Don’t look at the awesome pics coming out of Georgia metroplexers

[Brent]

Don’t look at the awesome pics coming out of Georgia metroplexers

Lol I have a lot of friends over there so I know

It's amazing how much more snow happens over there with similar climos although I think the bulk of Atlanta got screwed certainly closer to the airport

[Ralph's Weather]

I might end up stranded in New Mexico next week! lol

That looks like a classic I-40 blizzard my family has been stranded along that route many times in the 40 or so years they have had their place up in the mountains. If stranded Santa Rosa is probably the most pleasant town to be stuck in along I-40 between Albuquerque and Amarillo.

Which mountains does your family have a place? We used to have a place up in the La Platas of SW CO from '85 to about '06. I'm very familiar with that stretch of I-40 and we'd often stop in Santa Rosa for the night when we lived in SW Louisiana. I remember catching a snowstorm one trip during Spring Break when I was maybe 6 and you could hardly see anything other than the tail lights in front of you. I believe it was right before Moriarty. My favorite snowfalls in the La Platas though were two in June in '99 and Father's Day of 2011. We had fled the worst summer ever in Texas to camp out in a meadow and woke up Father's Day with about 4 inches of new snow. I woke up early just around sunrise and was completely surprised to see the snow. I took a walk in the meadow to enjoy the white scenery and saw a coyote off on the edge of the meadow playing around in the snow, likely enjoying it more than I was

Southern Sangres between Mora and Taos near Sipapu Ski Resort. I love the off season snows. Wish I could go up there more often. My last year at A&M I went up there 6 times haha.

[TropicalTundra]

This thread is really dead. Nothing looks good on the global models currently. Just a quiet, cool winter night. Kinda miss the crickets.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Guess we have a good subtropical fetch from our Pacific friend. Woohoo!

Per the CPC's latest outlooks issued today:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

Doesn’t look good for cold.

[bubba hotep]

Storms for N. Texas today

[orangeblood]

This thread is really dead. Nothing looks good on the global models currently. Just a quiet, cool winter night. Kinda miss the crickets.

Not looking good at all....++++EPO is just killing this winter. It hasn't really been negative for more than a few days since November. The latest forecast looks grim!

[Cerlin]

This thread is really dead. Nothing looks good on the global models currently. Just a quiet, cool winter night. Kinda miss the crickets.

Not looking good at all....++++EPO is just killing this winter. It hasn't really been negative for more than a few days since November. The latest forecast looks grim!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Yeah if that verifies, it all but seals up this winter, save a last second push...

[Brent]

Storms for N. Texas today

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody1.png

Of course

[rwfromkansas]

The EPO was supposed to go negative. What happened?

Well, that’s that.

[Brent]

The EPO was supposed to go negative. What happened?

Well, that’s that.

Like pretty much everything else this winter long-range fun has never verified

Not feeling a big severe threat tonight it's still dark and dreary out