Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman57]

My comments on what the overnight models are saying. Note that the Canadian was completely ignored due to it being an extreme outlier for the Houston area. Looks like the EC hates the D-FW area with all that freezing rain and sleet (and lack of snow). GFS heaviest precip line is farther south.

I plotted the 00Z models and 00Z snow and ZR forecasts (GFS & EC). As for temps in Houston, the Canadian remains way, way colder than any other model (blue lines) - down to 13F Mon and 14F Tue. General consensus is Houston temps dropping to freezing early Sunday morning and hovering in the 32-35 deg range all day Sunday. Precip ends by Sunday PM and temps drop to 26-29 on Monday. Possibly another light freeze Tuesday (31-33). This is for central Houston. Locations closer to GLS Bay may be a couple degrees warmer (except during the precip).

GFS Precip:
Freezing rain and sleet starting around 6am Sunday and ending by 6pm. It has 0.1 to 0.15" of ice accumulations, which is enough for some icy bridges/overpasses but not enough to cause power issues. Similar amounts SW LA to Baton Rouge area. Main core of freezing rain and sleet is from central Texas to central Louisiana to central MS, where it has 0.5" to 1.25" accumulating.

Snow starts in the TX Panhandle 9am Friday. Heaviest snow from SE New Mexico to the Red River (mostly on 9am Sat to 9am Sun). This includes 7-10" in the D-FW area. Only trace amounts down to the Waco area to north of Alexandria, LA.

ECMWF Precip:
Freezing rain and/or sleet starts Friday afternoon in north TX (not to D-FW area yet). Core of precip is just south of the D-FW area - from NW of Waco to just south of D-FW to Texarkana and along the AR/LA border to central MS. Ice totals between 1 inch and 1.75 inches in this area (severe ice storm). No freezing rain or sleet accumulations in Harris County, SW LA, or SE LA. Lower limit of ZR goes from near College Station to just south of Alexandria, LA. Just cold rain and an occasional sleet pellet for the Greater Houston area.

Heaviest snow central TX Panhandle to southern OK (north of Red River) then east to central Arkansas. Only trace amounts in the D-FW area. No snow southern Arkansas south to northern LA. Light snow extreme northern MS.
Main Differences

The main difference between the EC and GFS is with the core of ZR and snow. GFS is 75-100 miles south of the EC with both the heaviest snow and ZR/sleet. I think I'd favor the EC over the GFS, as the GFS tends to overdo such events and it may not handle the upper air pattern as well as the Euro.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan20Models.jpg

[orangeblood]

I'd imagine we'll see Winter Storm Warnings issued for everyone in Texas north of I-10 and maybe further south depending on these latest trends

[Ntxw]

If we get a foot I dunno about that I dunno I wasn't even here the last time Tulsa had a foot haha(February 2011). That storm was apparently horrible here but it was also a full blown blizzard

Anyway someone is getting a foot for sure around here

I hope that big arctic high doesn't shift the majority of the precip too far south of us.

Yeah I know it's not exactly my favorite setup ever based off that but the other side.....the precip may linger into Sunday now it's not like it's gonna be some 2 hour window and then it's over I guess

Honestly I'm seeing people east of here scared it's gonna shift back north anyway. Not sure how but we'll see. I think they are worried it cuts into the northeast or something

Yeah he's worried about too much phasing and it goes inland basically

As snownado posted above, on a grander scale (nationally) a more amped system bend north eventually, way colder on the west side, warm gulf air on the east. Not talking about locally but broader drivers. We are fine west of the Appalachains. If anything it will drive even more surface cold to Tx and more severe icing further south.

[TheAustinMan]

Just wanted to highlight the very unusual overlap between moisture and cold air this weekend. Typically, abnormal amounts of moisture in the wintertime are associated with unseasonable warmth. Certainly not so in this case.

The NAEFS (the combination of GEFS and GEPS) mean precipitable water and integrated vapor transport this Saturday exceeds the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year while also showing subfreezing temperatures across much of the northern half of Texas. In addition, the GEFS mean PWAT exceeds the ensemble's own reanalyzed climatology in some spots, so that means GEFS is modeling more moisture for this time of year than it would have for any other mid-January/early-February in its 1985-2012 climatology window.

Late January and early February is typically the driest part of the year when considering the whole troposphere over Texas (see the SPC sounding climatology). To be getting PWAT values of 0.75" to an 1" during an Arctic air outbreak... values which would be average in March and April... is remarkable.

[snownado]

I hope that big arctic high doesn't shift the majority of the precip too far south of us.

Yeah I know it's not exactly my favorite setup ever based off that but the other side.....the precip may linger into Sunday now it's not like it's gonna be some 2 hour window and then it's over I guess

Honestly I'm seeing people east of here scared it's gonna shift back north anyway. Not sure how but we'll see. I think they are worried it cuts into the northeast or something

Yeah he's worried about too much phasing and it goes inland basically

As snownado posted above, on a grander scale (nationally) a more amped system bend north eventually, way colder on the west side, warm gulf air on the east. Not talking about locally but broader drivers. We are fine west of the Appalachains.

It would be a concern locally in that it could lead to some funky observations (I.E. hours of a full on blizzard in Mineral Wells vs. hours of freezing rain in Sulphur Springs) as the transition timing could be delayed signficantly in many areas with the warm nose taking on more of SW to NE orientation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Long range overnight continues the idea that the Pacific pattern will mature ->Aleutian low->-EPO transition by the second week of February. Troposphere->Stratosphere coupling, hunch is a major blast of cold is coming in Feb.

With so much blocking already in the upper atmosphere, Jan 30-31st looks interesting to me as well.

[orangeblood]

Just wanted to highlight the very unusual overlap between moisture and cold air this weekend. Typically, abnormal amounts of moisture in the wintertime are associated with unseasonable warmth. Certainly not so in this case.

The NAEFS (the combination of GEFS and GEPS) mean precipitable water and integrated vapor transport this Saturday exceeds the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year while also showing subfreezing temperatures across much of the northern half of Texas. In addition, the GEFS mean PWAT exceeds the ensemble's own reanalyzed climatology in some spots, so that means GEFS is modeling more moisture for this time of year than it would have for any other mid-January/early-February in its 1985-2012 climatology window.

Late January and early February is typically the driest part of the year when considering the whole troposphere over Texas (see the SPC sounding climatology). To be getting PWAT values of 0.75" to an 1" during an Arctic air outbreak... values which would be average in March and April... is remarkable.

https://i.imgur.com/RmrXES7.png

Reaching unprecedented territory, thanks for posting this

[Snowman67]

My comments on what the overnight models are saying. Note that the Canadian was completely ignored due to it being an extreme outlier for the Houston area. Looks like the EC hates the D-FW area with all that freezing rain and sleet (and lack of snow). GFS heaviest precip line is farther south.

I plotted the 00Z models and 00Z snow and ZR forecasts (GFS & EC). As for temps in Houston, the Canadian remains way, way colder than any other model (blue lines) - down to 13F Mon and 14F Tue. General consensus is Houston temps dropping to freezing early Sunday morning and hovering in the 32-35 deg range all day Sunday. Precip ends by Sunday PM and temps drop to 26-29 on Monday. Possibly another light freeze Tuesday (31-33). This is for central Houston. Locations closer to GLS Bay may be a couple degrees warmer (except during the precip).

GFS Precip:
Freezing rain and sleet starting around 6am Sunday and ending by 6pm. It has 0.1 to 0.15" of ice accumulations, which is enough for some icy bridges/overpasses but not enough to cause power issues. Similar amounts SW LA to Baton Rouge area. Main core of freezing rain and sleet is from central Texas to central Louisiana to central MS, where it has 0.5" to 1.25" accumulating.

Snow starts in the TX Panhandle 9am Friday. Heaviest snow from SE New Mexico to the Red River (mostly on 9am Sat to 9am Sun). This includes 7-10" in the D-FW area. Only trace amounts down to the Waco area to north of Alexandria, LA.

ECMWF Precip:
Freezing rain and/or sleet starts Friday afternoon in north TX (not to D-FW area yet). Core of precip is just south of the D-FW area - from NW of Waco to just south of D-FW to Texarkana and along the AR/LA border to central MS. Ice totals between 1 inch and 1.75 inches in this area (severe ice storm). No freezing rain or sleet accumulations in Harris County, SW LA, or SE LA. Lower limit of ZR goes from near College Station to just south of Alexandria, LA. Just cold rain and an occasional sleet pellet for the Greater Houston area.

Heaviest snow central TX Panhandle to southern OK (north of Red River) then east to central Arkansas. Only trace amounts in the D-FW area. No snow southern Arkansas south to northern LA. Light snow extreme northern MS.
Main Differences

The main difference between the EC and GFS is with the core of ZR and snow. GFS is 75-100 miles south of the EC with both the heaviest snow and ZR/sleet. I think I'd favor the EC over the GFS, as the GFS tends to overdo such events and it may not handle the upper air pattern as well as the Euro.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan20Models.jpg

So is it your opinion that northern Harris/Southern Montgomery counties will not have significant icing issues with this storm? Or, do you believe it's still too early too determine?

[Brent]

I hope that big arctic high doesn't shift the majority of the precip too far south of us.

Yeah I know it's not exactly my favorite setup ever based off that but the other side.....the precip may linger into Sunday now it's not like it's gonna be some 2 hour window and then it's over I guess

Honestly I'm seeing people east of here scared it's gonna shift back north anyway. Not sure how but we'll see. I think they are worried it cuts into the northeast or something

Yeah he's worried about too much phasing and it goes inland basically

As snownado posted above, on a grander scale (nationally) a more amped system bend north eventually, way colder on the west side, warm gulf air on the east. Not talking about locally but broader drivers. We are fine west of the Appalachains. If anything it will drive even more surface cold to Tx and more severe icing further south.

I know exactly what his fear is

February 2021 good for us yeah bad for them

I know several people over there who have never gotten over it and can't talk about it it must be like PTSD or something

But yeah I'm not too worried over here since the GFS came around to the Euros snowier idea

[Ntxw]

Yeah I know it's not exactly my favorite setup ever based off that but the other side.....the precip may linger into Sunday now it's not like it's gonna be some 2 hour window and then it's over I guess

Honestly I'm seeing people east of here scared it's gonna shift back north anyway. Not sure how but we'll see. I think they are worried it cuts into the northeast or something

Yeah he's worried about too much phasing and it goes inland basically

As snownado posted above, on a grander scale (nationally) a more amped system bend north eventually, way colder on the west side, warm gulf air on the east. Not talking about locally but broader drivers. We are fine west of the Appalachains. If anything it will drive even more surface cold to Tx and more severe icing further south.

I know exactly what his fear is

February 2021

I know several people over there who have never gotten over it and can't talk about it it must be like PTSD

Yeah I have friends on the east coast who asked. HP driving into TX doesn't bode well for them because leads to inland runners away from the coast. They need the high to sit over SE Canada and northern New England, not Texas.

[jasons2k]

My comments on what the overnight models are saying. Note that the Canadian was completely ignored due to it being an extreme outlier for the Houston area. Looks like the EC hates the D-FW area with all that freezing rain and sleet (and lack of snow). GFS heaviest precip line is farther south.

I plotted the 00Z models and 00Z snow and ZR forecasts (GFS & EC). As for temps in Houston, the Canadian remains way, way colder than any other model (blue lines) - down to 13F Mon and 14F Tue. General consensus is Houston temps dropping to freezing early Sunday morning and hovering in the 32-35 deg range all day Sunday. Precip ends by Sunday PM and temps drop to 26-29 on Monday. Possibly another light freeze Tuesday (31-33). This is for central Houston. Locations closer to GLS Bay may be a couple degrees warmer (except during the precip).

GFS Precip:
Freezing rain and sleet starting around 6am Sunday and ending by 6pm. It has 0.1 to 0.15" of ice accumulations, which is enough for some icy bridges/overpasses but not enough to cause power issues. Similar amounts SW LA to Baton Rouge area. Main core of freezing rain and sleet is from central Texas to central Louisiana to central MS, where it has 0.5" to 1.25" accumulating.

Snow starts in the TX Panhandle 9am Friday. Heaviest snow from SE New Mexico to the Red River (mostly on 9am Sat to 9am Sun). This includes 7-10" in the D-FW area. Only trace amounts down to the Waco area to north of Alexandria, LA.

ECMWF Precip:
Freezing rain and/or sleet starts Friday afternoon in north TX (not to D-FW area yet). Core of precip is just south of the D-FW area - from NW of Waco to just south of D-FW to Texarkana and along the AR/LA border to central MS. Ice totals between 1 inch and 1.75 inches in this area (severe ice storm). No freezing rain or sleet accumulations in Harris County, SW LA, or SE LA. Lower limit of ZR goes from near College Station to just south of Alexandria, LA. Just cold rain and an occasional sleet pellet for the Greater Houston area.

Heaviest snow central TX Panhandle to southern OK (north of Red River) then east to central Arkansas. Only trace amounts in the D-FW area. No snow southern Arkansas south to northern LA. Light snow extreme northern MS.
Main Differences

The main difference between the EC and GFS is with the core of ZR and snow. GFS is 75-100 miles south of the EC with both the heaviest snow and ZR/sleet. I think I'd favor the EC over the GFS, as the GFS tends to overdo such events and it may not handle the upper air pattern as well as the Euro.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan20Models.jpg

So is it your opinion that northern Harris/Southern Montgomery counties will not have significant icing issues with this storm? Or, do you believe it's still too early too determine?

That was a good rundown of the overnight models, but it’s still too early to say. The overall trend has been colder.

[orangeblood]

Long range overnight continues the idea that the Pacific pattern will mature ->Aleutian low->-EPO transition by the second week of February. Troposphere->Stratosphere coupling, hunch is a major blast of cold is coming in Feb.

With so much blocking already in the upper atmosphere, Jan 30-31st looks interesting to me as well.

Has a lot of potential as the massive Alaskan ridge retrogrades and reorients over to Siberia, it's when that pivot occurs you could see a big chunk of the Arctic HP break off head straight down into the plains

[Ntxw]

Long range overnight continues the idea that the Pacific pattern will mature ->Aleutian low->-EPO transition by the second week of February. Troposphere->Stratosphere coupling, hunch is a major blast of cold is coming in Feb.

With so much blocking already in the upper atmosphere, Jan 30-31st looks interesting to me as well.

We will lose some cold source air up in Canada most of the continent will actually be very warm due to the Pacific flow coming in with the Aleution low. However cross polar flow sets up after that and it is likely in the second week of February and beyond that we will have a fresh cold source with blocking over the top to really deliver.

[South Texas Storms]

I would definitely prepare for potential issues on the roadways at least for areas as far south as San Antonio and Houston. We've seen these arctic air masses move in stronger and earlier than model projections many times before, and I would expect similar with this upcoming event. The amount of moisture accompanying this cold air is crazy...especially with how dry it's been over the past several months. Confidence continues to increase on a major winter storm across the state.

I'm currently thinking the worst icing concerns will be across central TX, with more sleet and snow mixing in across north TX. Won't be surprised at all to see the heaviest snow and ice accumulations occur south of where the models currently have them.

[wxman57]

So is it your opinion that northern Harris/Southern Montgomery counties will not have significant icing issues with this storm? Or, do you believe it's still too early too determine?

I definitely would not say that yet. The EC tends to be too warm and the GFS too cold. The 0.1" to 0.25" of ice accumulation could well extend down to central Houston. That could be enough to cause some power issues with tree branches falling on power lines. One thing I am confident of is that the Canadian model forecasts of lows below 15F Monday and Tuesday will not verify.

[rwfromkansas]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

Truly remarkable to see, this looks arguably worse than 2021 at this point due to the precip. Much more significant QPF to deal with than 2021

This is just a fascinating, historic storm it appears.

Incredible to watch.

I just got the updated "Weather Analysis and Forecasting Handbook" by Tim Vasquez for Christmas. I will try to check out the winter section tonight after work lol.

Having to do some lecturing today, so can't live on here. I am sure we will add another 10 pages today....

300 visitors earlier.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/researc ... opilot.com

So the MSN weather app uses the above technology for its forecasting.

Currently has me below freezing until maybe Monday afternoon, high of 36.

[wxman22]

The NAM

[orangeblood]

Here's a good tool I like to use for these events...representation from the Euro temp cross section forecasts over time for DFW Austin Houston. DFW's look like it can overcome a fairly weak warm nose quickly but Austin and Houston will be difficult to shake unless the deeper cold can get much further south

[Portastorm]

Just a request … can we please clarify what we mean when we say “this is similar to Feb 2021?” I known for those of you who have posted those comments you mean the impact of precipitation in North Texas. But if you can, please clarify.

This event is not appearing like the overall impact on the state of what happened in February 2021 in terms of cold and precipitation. There are a lot of people who legitimately have PTSD after that horrible week. And I bet some are members here or at least readers lurking.

Thanks.