Texas Winter 2010-2011

[utweather]

Some more science "friction", i mean fiction..
Does anyone think the magnetic poles will shift again anytime soon and what affect this may have on the weather?
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/05 ... ts-tampa-/

I dont want to disrupt the thread. But only since it looks like a slow few days for sure. I did a quick search on the web and came up with a scientific article on polar shifts http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story ... 10,00.html
Would the GFS be able to sniff out something unusual?

(sorry i can't help piling on the poor gfs)

not to alarm anyone, but it does seem the magnetic north pole is moving faster away, 10 miles per year in 2002 to 40 miles per year in 2011

edit: oops! miles per year, not miles per hour - that would be scary

[Brandon8181]

Some more science "friction", i mean fiction..
Does anyone think the magnetic poles will shift again anytime soon and what affect this may have on the weather?
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/05 ... ts-tampa-/

I dont want to disrupt the thread. But only since it looks like a slow few days for sure. I did a quick search on the web and came up with a scientific article on polar shifts http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story ... 10,00.html
Would the GFS be able to sniff out something unusual?

(sorry i can't help piling on the poor gfs)

not to alarm anyone, but it does seem the magnetic north pole is moving faster away, 10 miles per year in 2002 to 40 miles per year in 2011

edit: oops! miles per year, not miles per hour - that would be scary

That seems kind of scary, 40 miles per year...

[Ntxw]

^ You shouldn't be alarmed. Propaganda The magnetic pole has always been moving/wandering it's never in on spot for too long. Would be pretty rare to have it right over the geographic north pole. The magnetic field currently is too high for a magnetic reversal, that process takes thousands of years...

12 GFS is still a big storm, with snow at some point for just about everybody from hour 192-204. Deep south Texas sweet spot on this run. Low res sure does suck.

[utweather]

^ You shouldn't be alarmed. Propaganda The magnetic pole has always been moving/wandering it's never in on spot for too long. Would be pretty rare to have it right over the geographic north pole. The magnetic field currently is too high for a magnetic reversal, that process takes thousands of years...

12 GFS is still a big storm, with snow at some point for just about everybody from hour 192-204. Deep south Texas sweet spot on this one.

Yeah, I've seen it mentioned on lots of 2012 book covers, propaganda for sure, but if the magnetic pole wandered too far away from the true north pole would that affect the weather at all?

[Ntxw]

^ You shouldn't be alarmed. Propaganda The magnetic pole has always been moving/wandering it's never in on spot for too long. Would be pretty rare to have it right over the geographic north pole. The magnetic field currently is too high for a magnetic reversal, that process takes thousands of years...

12 GFS is still a big storm, with snow at some point for just about everybody from hour 192-204. Deep south Texas sweet spot on this one.

Yeah, I've seen it mentioned in lots of 2012 book covers, propaganda for sure, but if the magnetic pole wandered to far away from the true north pole would that affect the weather at all?

I'm not sure, haven't looked too deeply into that and we have no data to support anything. My theory is probably not. Atlantic rocks have shown complete reversal shifts have occured during the dinosaurs and they managed to survived just fine, hundreds of millions of years in fact . Other than you can see auroras further south and runways/birds need to adjust their compasses nothing unusual should happen. Just know the poles themselves aren't shifting...The only way that happens is when we lose the moon. Then we should be running around frantically.

[cperez1594]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_216m.gif
Looks to be mighty cold if this verifies for the Rio Grande Valley Area and maybe snow how fun would that be, a repeat of 2004 Christmas Day

[utweather]

^ You shouldn't be alarmed. Propaganda The magnetic pole has always been moving/wandering it's never in on spot for too long. Would be pretty rare to have it right over the geographic north pole. The magnetic field currently is too high for a magnetic reversal, that process takes thousands of years...

12 GFS is still a big storm, with snow at some point for just about everybody from hour 192-204. Deep south Texas sweet spot on this one.

Yeah, I've seen it mentioned in lots of 2012 book covers, propaganda for sure, but if the magnetic pole wandered to far away from the true north pole would that affect the weather at all?

I'm not sure, haven't looked too deeply into that and we have no data to support anything. My theory is probably not. Atlantic rocks have shown complete reversal shifts have occured during the dinosaurs and they managed to survived just fine, hundreds of millions of years in fact . Other than you can see auroras further south and runways/birds need to adjust their compasses nothing unusual should happen. Just know the poles themselves aren't shifting...The only way that happens is when we lose the moon. Then we should be running around frantically.

Cool, thanks for your time and explanation. Now back to wintry watching:-)

[southerngale]

utweather... You could continue the discussion on polar shifts in our Global Weather forum.

[Ntxw]

+PNA ain't going away on the GFS! Wxman will be suffering for a long ways to come. There is no signs of it letting up and that's just absolutely crazy. It's like the MJO is flicking off Ms. La Nada, pointing straight up into Alaska!

[Metalicwx220]

Next year El nino is going to be warm and dry.

[Metalicwx220]

IMPOSSIBLE!

[Metalicwx220]

NO COMMENT!!!!!!!!!!!

[DentonGal]

FYI: A lot of missing data for the 12Z NCEP suite...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Jan 23 13:44:31 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 231343
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1343Z SUN JAN 23 2011
THE 12Z NAM BEGAN ON SCHD AND THERE WERE MORE THAN
USUAL RAOB PBLMS OVER N AMER BUT WITH 29 CAN 11 MEX
AND 8 CARIB RAOBS AVBL. RAOB RECAP...
AKN/70326 - POWER FAILURE...CODE 10144.
FFC/72215 - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10158.
KPP/78970 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
MZL/76654 - MISCELLANEOUS ISSUE...CODE 10159.
BMX/72230 - SHORT TO 472 MB...CODE 10159.
INL/72747 - WIND DATA MISSING.
YMW/71722 - UNAVAILABLE.
YVP/71906 - DEL HGTS/TEMPS 871 MB AND UP...UP TO 6 K WARM.
LIH/91165 - DELETED TEMPS 841-774 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LR.
KPB/78954 - DELETED TEMPS 890...715-704...674-672 MB...
SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NO CWD IS IN EFFECT PRESENTLY HOWEVER NWS WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVPMT OF A POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST
COAST WINTER STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Srain - what impact, if any, does this have on the data everyone is analyzing now?

[Metalicwx220]

SO their are mountains in south texas I figure.

[srainhoutx]

Srain - what impact, if any, does this have on the data everyone is analyzing now?

The 12Z GFS and NAM suite are missing some data that would have been in ingested into the 12Z output. It is common to have some data issues. These are just a few more than what is considered 'normal' on a day to day basis. Does it mean the output is flawed? Not too much, IMO.

[southerngale]

Per the 6Z and 12Z GFS runs, I guess I'll take a trip down to Mexico so I can get buried in snow.

[DonWrk]

Looks like were getting a decent little cold front in this afternoon. Funny how I wasn't even paying attention to it without any moisture around.

[Ivanhater]

Per the 6Z and 12Z GFS runs, I guess I'll take a trip down to Mexico so I can get buried in snow.

You can't excpect the GFS to get the details right 9 days out. However, I don't think we could have a better setup! A 1040 High sitting over the Central U.S! Wow! Add to that a very active Southern jet and you have a classic setup for snow along the Gulf coast

[Ntxw]

Canadian is suggesting some flurry action between Wichita falls and Dallas in 48hrs or Tuesday ish. Yup many of us are forgetting there's a strong cold front coming through today .

Ukmet



Keep an eye out incase this thing winds up a bit faster/stronger to the west.

[iorange55]

Yup and now the Euro looks to be suggesting a trend towards some flurry action or something come Tuesday.